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Blast Off
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Blast Off

by The MoleJanuary 25, 2017

I know exactly how you feel. For weeks on end equities gyrate inside a 50 handle channel and suddenly we get a blast off out of nowhere. Annoying. But absolutely unavoidable and I recommend you don’t waste time emotionally chasing a trade which was largely bot driven and may be reversed at a moment’s notice. The Zero chart below shows us minimal participation throughout yesterday’s session and as such the advance should not be trusted. Congrats to you if you managed to trade it higher but it is probably best to not overstay your welcome.

2017-01-24_zero

Human psychology is rather puzzling at times – actually make that most of the time. And a cognitive bias that’s probably at play right now among the rest of us is hindsight bias – seeing past events as having been predictable and reasonable to expect before they occurred (Fischhoff/Kahneman 1975). Sure we were trading near the bottom of the channel Wednesday afternoon but unless you are a stone cold swing trader it was best to stay out and focus your attention on easier victims.

Evil Speculator Rule #264: Never worry about the trades you didn’t take. Instead worry about the ones you should have taken.

By the way that rule has been purposely worded and if you do not grasp its full implications then do yourself a favor and ask away in the comment section.

2017-01-25_silver_setup

Alright silver may bestow us with a long setup if it manages to drop a little and trigger my limit near 16.9. My stop would be placed below 16.78 and of course you can elect to be even more conservative, especially with this contract. Remember that larger stop ranges reduce your position size – if that just blew your mind then I invite you to play around with your handy futures risk calculator.

Quite a few more setups below the fold – please join me in the lair.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    I gotta say this, being a former “wave-wanker” and recovering perma-bear … Today’s opening ES/SPX pop will be Wave 5 in a classic 5 wave channel as the DJIA hits 20K … We’ll see “SHORTLY” what kind of legs this thing has.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    like I said, red markets will be banned after the inauguration.

    plenty of room on the upper range regarding the QQQ’s in my lens.

    4 likes the last time I posted this, someone give me 6!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3705a031a989aada3a8d8985bd85aa413e27d3bc0bdb860401592664f2fcd4fa.png

  • John Piper (market analyst)

    On the question of the Dow there was a nice Elliott a-b-c suggesting the rally was due to 20,000. I did post a video on You Tube yesterday before the open.

  • Ronebadger

    DOW 20,033 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • ridingwaves

    Sorry lads I phucked up on comex for metals, it’s friday….

  • Ronebadger

    Not much of a SPY-Volume opening, first 5 mins

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    too much fun, work and pleasure don’t mix.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    vix and vxo in the 10’s……I would fathom that they keep the dow at 20K to distribute for a bit, even thru bulk of earnings season….Katy bar the door after

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It sure is behaving like one, yes.

  • Yoda

    Congrats bots you hit my stop. I’ll reload when you done ducking around

  • ZigZag

    look it finally happened. Vix is broken and stuck at 10.8. (at least on thinkorswim)

  • StockTalker

    Lol, VIX broke. Hehehehe. Picked up some calls

  • Ronebadger

    I’ve got constant 10.8 on stockcharts and fidelity

  • ridingwaves

    L LNG on breakout
    Added to VNR…bonds are being bought up in huge chunks, looking like BK is off the table…
    VNRAP preferred entry last week is looking sweet….Common is $1.00 but like the preferred to hedge against BK..

  • StockTalker

    Happy to see this rally, sucking in allot of longs:)

  • Ronebadger

    10.83 now

  • StockTalker

    Short the bitch Permabear

  • ridingwaves

    ummm, are you not short the qqq and CL per your comment and heavy underwater?

  • Billabong

    There was a discussion about miners yesterday. PM miners haven’t seen the juniors or bottom of the barrel really move yet. GDX was up 20% yet GDXJ was up only 12%. For me, when the lower end starts catching up to the tier 1 group it’s time to watch the exit very closely. The best time to buy into this current run was EOM December … it still has legs, but my R SLs are trailing right behind. Other miners like SCCO, VALE and RIO aren’t participating in today’s upside move … party poopers. Also noticed the banks have just started backing off from their opening pop.

  • StockTalker

    Just /NQ, avg 5193

  • ridingwaves

    CL just popped a Viagra or Cialis

  • ridingwaves

    gotcha….
    2350 could be fair value on SNP with Trump corporate tax cuts of 10%…

  • BobbyLow

    We have another case where we’ve been getting a build in supply week after week and price doesn’t care. Yesterday, I had to hold my nose and take a small loss on my short and flip to the long side based only on price. Maybe Crude should be trading at $30 but it doesn’t want to. At least not right now.

  • Billabong

    Something to look at: CAT has a shooting star outside the upper BB … If it holds, I would look for follow-through on the daily … or maybe a day trade right now.

  • Billabong

    RW / BL – I closed 1/2 my short position on the 20th and will currently add back to the short side below $52.35. The other 1/2 has a BE trailing R SL. Most swing trades should have been closed after 6 days of sideways action.

  • ridingwaves

    CL is like a feather in a summer breeze….fickle it be…
    my theory is wants to go higher and cover the gap then distribution….
    but all the Central bankers are praying for inflation, CL makes that happen better than all their money throwing….

  • Billabong

    25 EMA is moving up about 2 cents a day.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, for the time being this just looks like a pop right into resistance i’m looking to short.

  • StockTalker

    Look at the tiny H&S on the 5 min, how cute is that:)

  • StockTalker

    No bid on crude oil, think Trump shot it down from resurrecting those pipeline projects.

  • Billabong

    To finish the pipelines, test flow and ensure all the heaters work will take 1-2 yrs. Looking for marginal producers to start discounting oil … OPEC is unable to hold the line on production as witnessed by their statement on no penalties for members that violate production quotas.

  • StockTalker

    Wow, that is nuts

  • ridingwaves

    keystone means nothing, I doubt if it even comes to fruition as Canadian tar sand is ugly oil (china is only buyer) and is already peaked in production. The bakken shale complex has already peaked in production and well output…….Texas and the Permian basin is the new thing…

  • Billabong

    A rhetorical question on what has performed better since 7 Nov 16, YM (+11%), CL (+18%) or GC (-6%).

  • Yoda

    lol at Gartman’s statement today: “Those who are short shall panic; those not long shall have to become so… swiftly.”

  • StockTalker

    This last rally has completed 5 waves on the hourly here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Gartman quotes and wave counts.
    what has this board come to?

    :-(

  • OJuice

    Now all we need is Gartman’s wave count…

  • evilasevildoes

    he’s lomg of yesterdays moves

  • evilasevildoes

    crude is cyclical lower into eom then blast off into march may..you know the world needs cheaper cl to grow

  • evilasevildoes

    the pipeline goes to houston refineries heavy canadian crude replacing venezuelas…

  • evilasevildoes

    Iran has had biggest reservoir in world since 48…now that should be premise for world oil politics…

  • evilasevildoes

    watch bullish percents for entries

  • evilasevildoes

    watch the BZ CL spread or dxeuro

  • evilasevildoes

    IWM Trump trade

  • evilasevildoes

    Sabine pass record shipments

  • OJuice
  • StockTalker

    Where are the 20K hats!

  • ridingwaves

    good catch forgot about Venezuela…

  • Yoda

    He is the few “news” that matters to me XD

  • evilasevildoes

    mu stomping grounds

  • StockTalker

    Allot of chatter about the stock market:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I still got two 10k hats – does that count?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Going down the tubes in a hand basket.

  • Ronebadger

    I have a tinfoil hat

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The low participation melt up continues. As the saying goes: the empty bus moves fastest… 😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/90ca66dde3f225ec8a827ba53d9ada74e57e1d0e43a3f2a81c1b9cfa57c17922.png

  • BobbyLow

    Sometimes there’s not a whole lot to be said that hasn’t already been said . This includes the question ‘how did so many pundits and traders get it completely wrong in March 2009’? The only answer that I could find is from Carnac the Magnificent who says “Anyone who says that they ‘know’ what’s going to happen in the markets with any degree of certainty is completely full of shit. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s so last month.
    get ahead of the curve DUDE.
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/no_escape/#comment-3061434712

    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, the sentiment is quite bearish….just too much so.. does smak me like a sucker play.

  • ridingwaves

    VXO 9.96

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot miners. Tight stop.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nearing 1st objective, raise stops.

  • Yoda

    yep, the bear bus is empty now

  • StockTalker

    Yes, that would be acceptable

  • Mark Shinnick

    Keep raising stops.

  • ridingwaves

    interesting juncture here for UCO…golden cross is near…I have a stop just below the rising 50 in case they still want to close that Nov. 29th gap…

    https://s27.postimg.org/3t6hdkgyr/UCO_daily_12517.png

  • OJuice

    Very interesting. Got it pinned right in the middle. It probably won’t happen, but, if it did I would love to get a long position on a brief trip under 50.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Closed out 50% of position EOD.

  • Billabong

    Nice upside reversal on miners during pm session. SI made it back to $17 and GC $1200…

  • Billabong

    Less weight = more fuel available to burn?

  • Billabong

    Could hit new multi-month high tomorrow.

  • Edd

    Trade gold stocks everyday 10 min and daily. These past two days often play out similar to this way almost every month at time of opex. I never carry overnight positions here. On my daily system an entry was triggered at the open today on DUST. I ignored it. I`ll enter NUGT in the am on price above 10.63 or enter DUST above 32.89. Today was the first day since 12-22 that my daily system triggered an entry on DUST.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Stops are run and no selling pressure. Spreads widen and bears panic.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its ironic; some portion of the shadow unemployed / disenfranchised voted for Trump against this very inequality in the face of ongoing Wall Street vs middle class destruction.

  • Yoda
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – fuck, we are getting old!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I got lost in some of the old posts. almost late for work.
    I was going to pull some up, but realize that THOSE times were different, and possibly WE we’re different.

    Maturity can have some benefits!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    as soon as the sun rises….it will set.

    http://www.newprophecy.net/A_trader_sums_up_the_atmosphere_on_the_floor.jpg

    “To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven”

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, next day opens to lose most gain, time right now to go ski first in 2 years :)