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Boring Brutal Tape
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Boring Brutal Tape

by MoleOctober 15, 2009

Anna here again!!

Well we have yet made another new high, fine let’s get the whole sheebang over with already!! I have been long this week because OPX is normally bullish..

Google beat by a huge margin, So far Google up about 12$ AH. and so did IBM, but their guidance is short. So hence the dump AH. I am making it short today, so here is Zero and you can see the Zero light was non existent today.

Now as usual I have a treat, a Goldilocks outfit to go look for the Bears 😀

Have an great night and see you on the other side 😀


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • faafa

    NYT Update | 4:39 p.m. Authorities continued to search the neighborhood for Falcon Heene, and this was not the first time he made national news.

    The Heene family appeared twice on ABC’s Wife Swap.

    The “storm-chasing family,” as ABC Television described the family of three young boys on the network’s Web Site was so popular, they became part of the 100th episode, where they swapped with a psychic, performing-arts loving family — the Silvers — from Florida.

  • gsavli

    Oktoberfest is over :)

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I was really hoping the title for this post would be “Up, Up, and Away!”

  • bergs

    Geez Anna

    Gone for the day and you still can't get this sucker to go down. All this market does is go up. Speaking of up, loving the pic's. Should sue for “drool” damage to the keyboard though!

    big pic

    http://screencast.com/t/tugaudd2ev

    little pic

    http://screencast.com/t/Ob0RoRgCX9T

    disclaimer: This is an assumed count and of course is subject to change. So if I change it do not post how erratic Elliott analysis is. I think even the boys at EWI have backed off on showing counts. This is the highest probability count I can see at this point. If it is indeed the end of P2 so be it. If it turns out to be C of D,E so be it. To tell the truth in my minds eye ,sure looks like fumes.
    I always have deferred my trading to what Mole posts. He has been spot on. Better then the EWI boys.

    See Anna it is those pictures made me say all that.

  • AS2009

    Bergs … we don't need disclaimers :) … we all know you do your best !! +1 !!

  • http://twitter.com/timvroom timvroom

    Geronimo. 1 trade + 2.5

  • thunda72

    PNC is looking like a good short. Looking at the weekly it's at an important juncture, right at the long-term trendline and the 60dMA. I already have some puts (Nov and Dec) and they've been bleeding the last couple weeks. Next week will tell.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Oohi6pwPSR

  • crwlnkngsnk
  • phantomflash

    “Goldie” locks indeed! Great pix Anna. Here's a quote I saw: “The market sure looks like it's running on fumes, but you know how explosive fumes can be.”

    BTW, think it might be about time to start a new page for posts? This one is getting really long.

  • charles_smith

    The exact numbers depend on whether you use the daily high or the close, but it sure looks like GOOG's pop to $545 is about the 62.8% retrace of it's entire move from ~$720 to ~$250.

    I love how click fraud–the cause of their higher click-thru rates–is being touted as evidence that the recession is over. More click fraud = higher GOOG revenues and thus higher stock price. Do no evil, indeed….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yes Anna, love the pix! 😀

    Gonna rest up now. I need a clear head for an important OPEX day coming up, with the UMich Consumer Sentiment Survey thrown in to boot.

    BTW someone was asking about those UMich surveys. I found the official Web site with everything anyone never wanted to know about 'em: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

  • bergs

    Thanks AS2009

    I just do not want some one to trade off the pattern and get hurt.
    Actually the comment was to blow off steam at the GS boy's et all who have the “for sure trade” going for them. They have had the ability to shatter many EW counts, bend TA to hide their A/D themes and basically print the money as needed to ensure their bet (thanks to their cohorts and paid cohorts in Govt.). Just frustrates the hell out of me.
    Never wanted to be a bear in the first place. Ya make more on the up then the down

  • thunda72

    This is a better chart than earlier for SPY:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/mYFqVSs7YKJb

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Hi Mac thanks

    as you guys can see some of our avatars are MIA why some are and some aren't I don't know but it's a disqus problem

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    thanks Phantom! I am going to search for dem bears :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Hey Bergs, hahahaha glad to see you! I just try to find girls with my shape size, ect….:)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Thanks Thunda I hope you see this, how can I learn about those clouds (so cool :D)

  • pramood

    Hi Anna,

    Where do you think SPY will close tomorrow? The current max pain is at 107.

    TIA

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Goldi I'm over here.

  • TheCrowe

    grumbles about how the theory of “max pain” didn't work all summer

  • neophyte

    Thought you may find this interview with Geithner interesting. He comes across so sincere. Unfortunately, because of the moderators role he cannot really pin him against a wall. I wish this were an open forum where he could be asked questions and be countered. Enjoy.

    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/the-f

  • http://www.anomalousmaterial.com CastorTroy

    BAC, GE, HAL on tap tomorrow. Some pullback/consolidation is nearly certain over the next few days, after such a run which is quite similar to what happened 3 weeks ago
    http://tinyurl.com/ygxhz4g

  • PRSGuitars

    My monster chart, in time for overnight /es drop towards 1080…

    The main idea is that two channels are converging, OR, one channel's extension (133.3) is converging with the retest of the other channel.

    Divergences are mounting and we are just waiting to catch a multi day drop. Those still exist, right?

    http://screencast.com/t/suxUoOR9dw1

    Let me know if you have questions — this stuff is confusing!

  • nummy

    i'm estimating /DX to reach the low 75s tomorrow. however, i'm expecting /DX to bounce next week to maybe up around 76ish … the following week (last week of October) i estimate /DX will bottom around 73.6-74.6ish.

    /DX fib counts
    zoom level 1
    http://www.screencast.com/t/Nc1K8PFPVBn
    zoom level 2
    http://www.screencast.com/t/skYkbDkY
    zoom level 3
    http://www.screencast.com/t/Id3I7vu2

  • kryxtal

    It seems to work only on very obviously manipulated stocks. It worked especially well for me on AIG. SPY, definitely not so much…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I guarantee you those drops exist! In fact I sold 43 puts on QQQQ today to prove it….part of a Calendar spread, with June 43 puts….

    So now that I have a higher delta put write in the front month–the market is sure to tank. However, this is actually a good way for me to hedge my shorts by collecting premium. Better than just taking a long futures position.

    But like I said, I am taking one for the team.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Nummy are those volume bars on the price chart!>!?>!?!?! on TOS!??!?!? I have to know how you do that….i will do anything….even sell puts to crash the market….let me know.

  • PRSGuitars

    I appreciate your sacrifice! Sometimes we all need to do that… as my nontrading friends joke, when I (allegedly a teflon bear) convert to long /es, the market will drop consistently.

    I've been tentatively trading long for a bit (but scalped both ways this week) to hedge my growing put position… ugh… skewing toward Dec 100 puts to capture some explosiveness if we drop, as I had held 87s and 85s (but only a very small amount) and those are obviously rather silly at this point. March-June is the more likely area and I suspect the 90s will be a fine balance between premium paid and expansion of premium possible.

    I imagine those drops exist somewhere, like the Atilla-EW pattern from my faux-EW chart from last night… (http://screencast.com/t/scr1ojCwb).

  • Nightwind

    My estimate for DX is around 74.90ish area based on measured moves, not fib lines.

  • nummy

    thinkscripter.com … to get access to all the scripts you need to do a one-time $75 donation. it is more than worth it.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I'll be making like $2200 on those puts I sold, so that is chump change….unless of course the market tanks, then I will make making buku bucks on the puts I own….oh wait…I am hedged, hehe.

    Thanks. I will check it out.

  • Joe8888
  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    Sounds like spreads are bleeding out. Very interesting…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/daily-credit-s

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77
  • Joe8888
  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Yup, pretty boring day…lots of weakness in the NASDAQ over the last couple of months actually, this can been seen using NASDAQ/S&P Relative Strength http://bit.ly/3cuKsy

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we reverted to older avatars (backups likely) your true sexy you is back

    bear outfits can't beat a true (if sometimes bulish) bearess

  • centerline

    Anna – just stopped by to say thanks for all the hard work holding the fort down here at ES. Will be interesting to see what Mole has to say about the daily costume line-up. Very funny indeed. I think I like this latest one the best.

  • TheCrowe

    MACD/RSI both diverging lower on this revisit to the high. RSI still closer to 70 than to 50 though. From what I've learned from Alpha, crossing the 50 level is key in spotting a reversal. Hope everyone here is doing well!

  • Keirsten

    NEW POST ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤

  • string01

    I just hope to god that Mole doesn't come back and start posting hot fashion shots of himself.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Oh I got a note from the Disqus guy. He (finally) got around to fixing the issue I'd reported some time back with the avatar image area selection box: http://evilspeculator.com/?p=10472#comment-1572

    That bug had placed non-square avatars into the system. Now it seems these are rejected.

    Go to http://disqus.com/profile/avatar/ to choose your avatar again and use the area selection box. That will actually work and it will get your avatar back. :)

  • ultrabear

    Cute and very apt, as Goldilocks is as of now still happily sat scoffing the bears' porridge – they are all still MIA lol

  • TheCrowe

    That's a great observation. My failures with max pain are almost all in the indexes. Thanks for taking the time to share. Where do you get your max pain calculations from? I use http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pai… Obviously, you can eyeball things, but the calculation isn't really possible just looking (and the difference between a 44 expiration and a 45 expiration is huge!! )

    Best, Richard

  • kryxtal

    I use optionpain.com too, it's generally pretty good for ballpark figures, but I find that it may be off sometimes by a strike or two (it really depends what the option volume is — the higher the better). I like to also look at the open interest directly on the calls and puts as well. Look where the peak interest is, and try to deduce what the MMs are planning.

    For AIG, there was a very large open interest on the 40 C's and P's for SEPT, and 45 C's and P's for OCT (though to a lesser degree than SEPT). Given that peak interest was at the same strike for both, you could've done a butterfly spread (since a close right on the strike would also be max pain), or like I did, a bear call/bull put spread. Last SEPT, AIG closed $.10 under $40 (I had the 40/45 bear call), and it looks like the 45/46 bear call I did for OCT played out well too.

  • TheCrowe

    That's a great observation. My failures with max pain are almost all in the indexes. Thanks for taking the time to share. Where do you get your max pain calculations from? I use http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pai… Obviously, you can eyeball things, but the calculation isn't really possible just looking (and the difference between a 44 expiration and a 45 expiration is huge!! )

    Best, Richard

  • kryxtal

    I use optionpain.com too, it's generally pretty good for ballpark figures, but I find that it may be off sometimes by a strike or two (it really depends what the option volume is, not just open interest — the higher the better). I like to also look at the open interest directly on the calls and puts as well. Look where the peak interest is, and try to deduce what the MMs are planning.

    For AIG, there was a very large open interest on the 40 C's and P's for SEPT, and 45 C's and P's for OCT (though to a lesser degree than SEPT). Given that peak interest was at the same strike for both, you could've done a butterfly spread (since a close right on the strike would also be max pain), or like I did, a bear call/bull put spread. Last SEPT, AIG closed $.10 under $40 (I had the 40/45 bear call), and it looks like the 45/46 bear call I did for OCT played out well too.

    A couple other instances that worked well with max pain were PALM and MBI, and a couple that didn't were AAPL and AMZN. So sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't :/