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Boring Thursday Morning Briefing
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Boring Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleOctober 24, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Things are pretty flat out there right now and the only short term setup that caught my interest this morning is the NQ which however is a pretty nice one. First up we’ve got increasing Bollinger compression here as the 100-hour is closing in after three sessions of sideways churn. It’s sitting right on top of its 100-hour SMA and the 25-hour is swinging up to meet it in a few hours. Finally price are closely flanked by a NLSL and a NLBL – pretty sweet!

I’d be long here on a breach of 3,356.5 with a stop below 3,347.75 – short on a drop through 3,342 with a stop above  the 100-hour SMA. I can’t guarantee you it’ll take off today but it’s a good inflection point and that’s the best we can hope for.

FYI – stay out of Pound related FX trades around 12:45pm EDT today. And tonight at 7:30pm  we’ve got the Japanese CPI numbers – that ought to be good for a few wild swings.

Before I go here’s a little goodie. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey now bears the third most bearish reading in eight years. Alright, see you guys in a few hours.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    most bearish? am I ready the survey incorrectly?

  • Ronebadger
  • BobbyLow

    Could be a misprint or sarcasm. But has this report actually meant anything in recent years?

  • Ronebadger

    follow the link below for historical records… I just looked, there’s not a lot of great correlation…just stuff to talk about over a beer

  • bdoone

    I think when the bearish percentage is so low implies complacency/bulls all in/bears out…This is relative to equities like VIX buy/sell signal.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    Sep 19th did a good job 45%, but only in hindsight.
    but now it’s at 49% and the S&P is ~20 pts higher.
    just BTFD. 😉

  • SS_JJ

    Yes, the long trade is getting seriously crowded

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted a double meal at the top WS 15479 – damn… was chewing my gums and browsing the net just now b4 mkt opens and saw the pics of a very fat and ugly girl who makes a cute pose. I think THAT inflicted some damage on my tactical thinking today, so pls dont follow this trade 🙂

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, market looking weak:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    it’s a trap!

  • Skynard

    Currencies/commodities are saying otherwise:)

  • Fearless

    Majority of prior strong years have seen the market drop from October 23 to early November. Since 2007, the market has made significant swing lows within days of Black Friday every year.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    currencies? we don’t need no stinkin currencies
    EDIT: see July 16th, July 24th.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p87380956619

  • Skynard

    Look at the div now on the hourly ZL:) It is huge!

  • CorporalCarrot

    I’m not really sure what weakness people are seeing. Holding longs from yesterday although I do have the benefit of excellent entry points. I know people were waiting on some “retest” in order to get short. I think the last couple of days we just HAD the retest of the breakout and it was the opportunity to get long.

  • Skynard

    More specificly, crude is up shit creek:)

  • CorporalCarrot

    That being said a range compressed day would give us a lovely inside day and a good trade in either direction.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    Chanukkah comes early this year. no worries. 😉

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    yes, breaking 150 (bad) is a big deal for investors.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89000696542

  • Darkthirty

    es/dji are not in synch

  • Dyellowflash

    The longer the struggle, the better it is went break. Added to shorts. Now 4 sets and fully filled.

  • Ronebadger

    the better it is went break ???

  • Dyellowflash

    *when

  • Dyellowflash

    Hope nobody trades against me today. The force may be strong in most pple here, but I am Zero. That said, the usual drill applies 🙂 – TP-ed half and left half to ride on.

  • bullregard

    Bearish report for /NG, didn’t manage to go down… Might show a short squeeze.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Which Black Friday ? 😉

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    ZL 5 servin up pancakes this mornin

  • bdoone

    I’m thinking day after Thanksgiving BF as opposed to 1987 BF which was Oct 19 and wouldn’t jibe with above analysis.

  • Skynard

    Going nowhere fast, good day!

  • newbfxtrader

    Join me bro been shorting yen pairs for days now. Reloading on every bounce.

  • bullregard

    /GC up against a 3 months volume hole, possibly cleared around 1360. As per Fearless keen observation, best would be to quickly skip over it. Sudden drop in /DX ? (Chart attached)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Retailers Black Friday

  • Nojak

    Squeezin’ now!

  • jmoney3000

    Mole-

    Would you mind detailing your orders in the Nasdaq today? Im assuming you flipped at least once and am wondering where your stops and reversals were if my assumption is correct? Thanks!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Can see it in several and am short aud
    Where would you now short Eur/jpy?

  • bullregard

    Shorts don’t look particularly scared…

  • Dyellowflash

    The WS/YM’s high of day 15498 is actually about a few pips away from my reloading of shorts… Not that I actually wanted to see it there – it will take the fight to neutral ground.

  • bullregard

    I think 3.642-3.645 is where the majority of stops are… until then, still prone to drop.

  • newbfxtrader

    http://stocktwits.com/message/16756524

    Reshort cad, aud, nzd at next bounce. Check this for levels.

  • Dyellowflash

    For better or worse, 15504… filled.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/qYtzGJto/

    eur/jpy not your best bet if looking to short.

  • bullregard

    Bulls tried to ignite it, first attempt failed.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/nWIqYcQU/

    compare to this. Already below october low. A break of 92 and I will back the truck up.

  • bullregard

    Wow, gold going for it alone, no help from USD.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/AizBws8h/ or try this instead. I hope you see what I mean. You dont really have a sell setup on eur/jpy. Could it go down with risk off yen strength yes but you have better pairs to short elsewhere.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Sure that’s why I asked, as I didn’t see much on my system for a short.

  • newbfxtrader

    Oh yeah mostly commodity currencies short. Also booked profits on eur/cad, gbp/cad, eur/nzd gbp/nzd. Will reload on a bounce.

  • Fearless

    Looks like RTV-S setting up on the daily.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Got short below 3347 and got stopped out at the new NLBL at 3353.5. Not liking this tape AT ALL and I won’t take any long positions right now. See the Zero Lite if you have a sub.

  • Ronebadger

    looking for that as well… would it qualify as Scott’s re-test?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m seeing you guys grasping for bearish straws again. See, this is exactly why Scott left – some of you rats just never learn.

    THERE IS NO BEARISH EVIDENCE on the table that should get us into short positions. Sure I did a ‘bearish evidence post’ the other day but was clear that we CAN NOT yet consider short positions as the fucking tape has proven to be like teflon – nothing sticks. I tried a ST short on the NQ this morning and it didn’t even drop more than a few handles before it drove back higher on fumes. This is going to continue until the boyz run out of bears to burn.

    So before I lose my lunch can you guys please stop this silliness and focus on the tape that IS? How about posting charts instead? Real setups – you know the ones that I produce very single day. I just scrolled through the comment section and see one f…ing chart – that is it. A lot of empty talk and silly questions. How about you post charts of the trades you are currently in so that we have something to talk about?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry guys but it seems you need a helping of tough love.

  • bullregard

    Bots restarted… waited for the wee hours of the lunch.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Post a chart – mark every step per the instructions. The rules are public so there should be no confusion.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you for posting a chart – wish I would see more of this here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Correlations are useless. Do not trade them.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Everyone trades against you – get used to that idea.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dangerous tape – anything may happen.

  • bullregard

    Ok, not doing it… been burned before by them. Just trying to see possible scenarios, if they worth holding long.

  • bullregard

    Scott left?!! Oh no! Missed a few days.

  • Dyellowflash

    Not a bad thing. Minority always win in the mkt. Just got to get used to the stench of blood. I am now neutral with a bag of short positions, so let’s see if they can trap me 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, he won’t be commenting. Didn’t feel that he was getting much back here – one way street IYKWIM. He’ll still post on the blog every once in a while when I need a day off.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t try to see something when there’s nothing to see. Your mind is looking for information and if it doesn’t find anything it’ll start producing its own. Be Zen.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, it’s not necessarily a bad thing. Many times the majority is wrong – but don’t fool yourself either – quite a lot of time the majority is right 😉

  • Dyellowflash

    Here’s the chart. Hourly SPX futures failed to breach the 2nd max top VW twice – 7 and 11 hrs ago and it cuts through the bottom green line VW at one try. Was at the Golden line when I TP-ed half of my shorts filled at mkt opens (I waited to see if there is any strength from ZL b4 shorting). Technically, we still haven’t retake back the position of the previous red candle after 2.5hrs, so the technical hourly picture on my chart is still bearish and I re-shorted at the tip of the day just now. I could be wrong, but there’s a job to be done, and I follow my system regardless.

    Here’s the “problem” chart – 15m – not looking good as an hour ago, the big green candles took out 3 red candles worth of strong sellers. And now, in real time over past 4 candles of 15m it had consolidated above these 3 candles. Of course, this could also be the making of a very good M before a crash down, but this is very doubtful right now bcos there is only probably about max 15m more for this to have a strong probability of occurring. I have tot of clearing my half bag of shorts took at the peak of day for a few pennies during this retracement and go long instead, but my personal experience is the first breakout of a channel is usually the fake move & ZL is still flat, so I am going to hold my shorts and see if they trap me. No harm losing a trade or two to feed the MMs 🙂

  • Nojak

    Thanks for the update. Had a very low Buy order that was triggered and I jumped near the top of the original move. Considered it ‘lottery tic”- not a trading plan.

  • Ronebadger

    He’s a bear…. I’m a badger, what can I say?

  • bullregard

    I agree, I’m trying hard not to. Thanks for the reminder. Just I am working on a new (to me) approach of updating a running position as if I entered it fresh, see the prospects vs. risk and decide if I maintain it. Somehow similar to “Protect R”.

  • bullregard

    There you go, presumed stops area touched.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Someone just emailed me and asked me why I don’t just ban the people who piss me off. Look guys – it’s not about getting pissed off – we are all here to improve ourselves. And if I see you guys fall back into bad habits despite hundreds of lessons (and thousands of posts over the past five years) then I have to dish out some tough love. You can either pout and move on or you can step up and try to change your ways. Some of you guys have been here for YEARS and are spending half the day posting funny images and who knows what. It’s cute every once in a while and I enjoy the advertising revenue but look guys – either we try to live up to higher standard here or I may as well start posting on ZeroHedge if you get my drift.

    So let’s work harder. Let’s try to do better. I want to see some charts here – especially by you regulars. The comment section is completely under facilitated at this point – I barely read it to be honest. You may see me participate more if you post more of the stuff that actually benefits everyone. Charts, analysis, trades, setups, anything that actually may lead to us banking coin.

    Regarding Scott – I think at some point he’ll be back as he’s a natural teacher and he loves to share. But you guys have taken his contributions for granted over the past few years. Ask yourself – what have YOU offered him that may be of benefit? The dude wakes up each day and needs to make a living like all of us. And somehow he decides to spent HOURS each day participating and answering questions her in the comment section. He’s one of the best traders I have met in my life and there is ZERO incentive for him to offer anything here. If I was any of you guys I would have worked my ASS off when he attempted to help you. Perhaps send him setups that are in line with the type of charts he posts here himself. Ivan’s setups for example. How many of you have been taking ONE of Ivan’s setups and done some analysis on that? Peter Levchenko did but he’s one of the pros here. See – but he put in the time and the effort and that’s why he is where is is (i.e. profitable and non dependent).

    If you want to become a trader like Scott or Peter or Ivan then you will have to spend THOUSANDS of hours getting there, honing your skills, and learning anything you can about trading. Hands on – every single day and the forum here in my mind was always an opportunity to further that very endeavor. If I see you guys piss it away and doing the same shit every single day over and over again then yes – I WILL dish out some tough love. Because YOU may think you are good enough but I know better. And if you were profitable and ready to make a living trading then you probably wouldn’t be here, let’s be honest.

    I want to help you guys succeed and so does Scott. And that is why I need to inspire you guys to better yourselves. There are ALWAYS good trades out there – why aren’t you spending hours each day finding them? How many charts have you parsed today? How many symbols? What have you learned today? There is so much to share each day – this place ought to be hopping. Instead I see the same shit every day and it’s frankly it’s a bit frustrating.

    Now before you prematurely judge me about bringing this up. Look – I could just keep my mouth shut and just enjoy my subs paying every month. But that’s not good enough for me. I want to see you guys succeed – I want to see you guys bank some fucking coin. I know what it takes – a lot of PAIN!! And a lot of sacrifice.

    Do you guys remember one of my first posts from five years ago titled ‘Stainless Steel Rats”? Please read it again – it’s as applicable today as it was back then:

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=1147

  • bullregard

    attached hourly NG, touching the presumed stops area

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Charts – I think I’m gonna faint…

    Okay, since the gloves are off today: “so I am going to hold my shorts and see if they trap me. No harm losing a trade or two to feed the MMs :)”

    You don’t have a f…ing plan mate – this is not a basis to trade and most of what I read in that comment is guesswork and mental masturbation. It’s rather obviously a low participation churn day – anything may happen. IF you play this tape then have a plan: I’ll go in here – here’s my stop – and this is my target – done. In tape like this you simply don’t trade just to trade. FAIL.

  • newbfxtrader

    @mole Hey I post charts plenty. Nobody takes my setups……

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Keep it coming – I’ll make it a point to look at them.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Okay, first one to post a chart gets a hug 😉

  • Dyellowflash

    U assume i got no stops? How could this be possible? I am a scalp trader. My stops are at the white X of roughly 1755. Although I had taken off half for a few pennies during the dip just now when ZL did not support that move.

    Unlike you who is a trader who trades upon confirmation of up or down moves, I am a swing trader, I trade on pre-emptive moves and decide upon whether to exit fast or hold when the next preceding dialectical opposite move of my trades inform me its relative strength/weakness. In a nutshell of a nutshell, I am Dyellowflash, and my nickname implies that I trade like / as fast as tradebots.

    Well, I figured I definitively dont have a f…ing plan… especially these two weeks, bcos I am actually testing a new filling system using 1% of my usual trade vol. But if you checked my postings here without charts over the course the past 6mths, probably I am right 95% of the time, instantaneous on the spot on entry and exit… any dudes here who read my trades and verify urself real-time probably can see that unless bcos my name is not Mole or CS, so nobody actually read what I posted? Anyway, sorry for pissing the boss here. I am very grateful seriously to you and CS for sharing 0FX and the ZL as well as the methodologies for a lot of techniques. If you are interested, I will gladly share with you my trading of FXs using 0FX which both urself and CS dont use on a daily basis 12 hrs a day.

    Hmm… lol… strangely my MT4 data shows I am right only 89% of the time – probably due to quite some 0.01 lots trading which I use just for the purpose of tracking (to see correlated pairs price actions on my order dashboard).

    Alright, this marks my final post, after my testing of this final filling system, probably I will just focus on banking coins silently. Fyi – I had been working on a most compatible filling system to work with ZL since last Aug and I think I will probably be done with the final version in a mth’s time.

    P.S. I had actually complied a 50, 000 ++ words excel document with plenty of 0FX charts attached on trading using 0FX for my own reference and I aint kidding, I didn’t return the favor and share it with ur bcos it aint completed yet – est. 75% done.

  • newbfxtrader

    newbfxtrader • 3 days ago
    If I may suggest short usd/chf, short cad/jpy, short nzd/jpy, long eur/nzd, long gbp/nzd, long eur/cad, long gbp/cad.
    Heres my reply to someone couple days ago. You know how many hundreds of pips I am sitting on after that.

  • Sean

    It shouldn’t be about other people taking your setups… it should be about other people attempting to shoot holes in your logic for the trade or the system you are using… as a commenter it is hard for me to care about any one chart or trade if I don’t understand the underlying system or rational… we all will learn more from exploring the why instead of the what…

  • newbfxtrader

    You are correct. But I will explain any setups if you are interested.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, that would be a good start. It’s not about opinions – we are ALL wrong all the time. It’s simply about setups – period. Nobody has a crystal ball.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/MDNmaDgQ/

    Reason for the eur/cad long recommendation was simple. Price in a uptrend. Buy the pullbacks or get in on the breakout.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/o9X3AmJs/

    Opposite here. See.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re not pissing me off – once again you’re missing the point.

    This is not about stops – and if you’re a scalper then you should NEVER even think about giving MMs anything as bad entries/exits could cost you massive profits over time despite taking good trades.

    BTW, there is no way you can execute trades in nanoseconds – are seriously attempting to compete with the HFT? Paleeze. And you stating that you are right 95% is laughable as best and disqualifies you as a trader in my mind. Seriously – what are you doing here? Shouldn’t you own an island by now?

    Anyway, the way you interpreted and responded to my comment speaks volumes about you as it is rife with emotions and the need to defend yourself.

  • bullregard

    /CL attempting to break the hourly NLBL, second time today (Chart attached)

  • newbfxtrader

    He is partially correct. You cant take my setups blindly unless you have a plan entry exits stop levels etc. But before Scott I would have never taken any of these setups because its either overbought or oversold. Trying to pick tops and bottoms. Wasted too many months and plenty of cash doing exactly that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly – once you detach yourself from predicting turning points you have made a big stride toward becoming a profitable trader.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, nobody knew Scott’s name when he started posting here. But he earned his street creds by posting quality comments and for knowing his shit. Food for thought before you march off in a huff.

    If you want to be active where they constantly pad your shoulder and tell you how good you are then you’re in the wrong place mate. I get up every fucking day and tell myself that I don’t know shit and that I have to do better.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very nice!! Now we’re hopping.

  • ridingwaves

    I posted this yesterday..I picked up ZLCS after it was beat up in reverse split tpday at 3.70 and 3.95 today…upcoming news on 2 phase 2 products could send it to 5-6+ for a quick profit.

    Sometimes sectors do react to news or upcoming news…I’m 1/2 out at 4.85…big chance if phase 2 results are good it could fly to 10…

    http://s10.postimg.org/r572dvlt5/ZLCS_chart.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh – thought this was a NLBL but it’s not. MMMh – I would be cautious here as the 25 has NOT proven itself.

  • bullregard

    It’s both, NLBL and 25 SMA… They have the same colour on my chart…

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah tell me about it. Took like 2 years to finally get some sense. The old me would be looking to short gbp/usd. Now I see strength in GBP then I look for weaklings to go long like gbp/cad or gbp/nzd and thats precisely what I did couple days ago. Booked profits will reload on a pullback.

  • Sean

    If you had posted these charts with the initial comment and added some annotations on your entry/exit points you could have some slapped some serious “I told ya so” around here today (and earned the right to have people listen to you more)… but just suggesting the trades in a list like you did likely lead to your suggestion getting ignored… I know I personally brushed off your comment because there was no substance to it (yes, I remember it, I read every single comment here)… but if you had posted the chart and listed your trend following rules for why you are taking the trade I would have looked closer, especially considering that I just started reading “Way of the Turtle” and am very interesting in trend following systems at the moment…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Sean

    What’s your play? Long side looks shaky as the trend appears down… but the short side looks like it could be offering a nice entry if it fails to cross the NLBL & 25h ma.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hug!! 😉

    It seems to do well on the inside day front – I think some of those accelerations could have been caught with Ivan’s entries.

  • bullregard

    Entered long at 10:55 on break of the hammer high. Should have been earlier as FO-L, but delayed. Updated stop at 96.80 in the last hour.

  • ridingwaves

    Actually I’m using some of Ivan and scotts methods on candles in equity symbols…
    it does work…plus better stop control on these extremely volatile symbols..

  • Dyellowflash

    I am sorry to hear that… okie, looks like I got to do another post to reply to ur qns:

    – I have traded fulltime for only 1.5 yrs & traded forex for only 1 yr (7.5yrs overall). I deemed myself not enough experience to do roll-over trades yet (i.e. I trade standard amt and never increase my trade size with the extra profits). In addition, I had imo, relied too heavily on 0FX and ZL to make my trades work during this whole yr (used to be around 75-83% before using them), so I had been working on a more liberal filling system to spread out my reliance on those two.

    – Obviously I dont trade nano-seconds, just need to be about 2-10x faster than normal traders when making decisions and executing trades will do. That was meant to be taken metaphorically.

    – I think I had been wrong only once here. If includes today, it might be twice. I doubt can include today, bcos I had banked 165 pounds already from taking profits double quick time during the opening hr dip and that scary-looking dip during midday and my SL for the remaining 1/3 is around 170 pounds, so its probably a Draw if gotten stopped out.

    – Buy island? Probably need 10m pounds? If I start rollover trading this Dec, may take 2-3 years to reach this on my rollovering timetable 4 yrs masterplan. Maybe I will named it after Mole?

    – Emo? Ok, I concede on this one. Hmm…

    – Haha, be cool – dont have to be so tough on urself to get up every f…ing day to xxx… Just as my non caring attitude towards MM being able to pick my coins today, I believe that if I have the true power, nobody can take a single coin off me. If I dont, no point trying f…ing hard to hold on to them regardless how much I have bcos they will be taken away nonetheless.