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Bottom Feeding
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Bottom Feeding

by The MoleSeptember 29, 2015

Equities dropped lower overnight, once more making my point that throwing money at premature contrarian positions is tantamount to gambling –  sans the sun and pretty girls serving you drinks with little umbrellas.

vegas-encore2_2512825k

So next time you’re ‘feeling lucky’ and your fingers are itching then do yourself a favor and instead charter a flight to Vegas. At least there losing money can be entertaining and if you play your carts right then other ‘perks’ are available to you – ahem.

2015-09-29_spoos_setup

That said I may be testing my luck by grabbing a small long position after a little bounce higher. Technically speaking this tape looks bearish as hell and if stopped out I intend on flipping for a short position, assuming the Zero is not painting a bullish divergence.

2015-09-29_AUDNZD_setup

AUD/NZD – I suggested this one the other day and it’s still looking good. However I think we should wait for a real touch of the diagonal and perhaps a little dip lower followed by a recover. If that happens then be long with a stop below the prior spike low.

More forex fun below for my intrepid subs:

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Skynard

    Remained long, 1890 B/E (original), added to that position and ready for some rally. Something to say about swing trading that you never dought yourself and maintain your plan.

  • saltwaterdog

    I’ve been testing and working on systems now for about two years, after 20yrs or so of fundamentally driven investment. For me, a huge change to working in 15min timeframes after so long focused on what “should” happen in a 1-2yr timetable.

    Aside from myself, which is I believe every trader’s greatest challenge, one area I am interested in is when to turn the system off. Simple MA filters on the equity curve have been suggested here, and Scott has discussed measuring market “type” as well. Clearly a/the market seems to alternate between Bobby’s “Slice and Dice” mode and something more tradeable. I’m currently in a draw that is 200 campaigns deep and seemingly/primarily a function of too many campaigns in the chop not funding the ones that “work”. Those periods are easy to see after the fact….. maybe the board has worked with methods of seeing them in advance? Currently my best gauge is simply quitting when my gut tells me the run has been had for a bit, which is pathetically unscientific.

  • newbfxtrader

    Fundamentals to 15 minutes. Thats a sea change.

  • saltwaterdog

    It was a process like most things

  • newbfxtrader

    I dont have the energy or skill like Sky so I stick to weekly/daily charts. Smaller positions. Longer durations. Seems to work well. You have to pick something that suits your personality.

  • RoastBeeph

    Just curious, are you not in the United States? You seem to not be in the US time zone based on your posting times (early in the mornings oftentimes). :)

  • Skynard

    /NG tested support

  • RoastBeeph

    If you don’t mind me asking, what platform do you run your automated system on? I heard Ninja Trader is very popular for mechanical systems.

  • newbfxtrader

    Hes plugged into the optic fiber cables that lead into the matrix….

  • saltwaterdog

    Nothing automated about my system Beeph – all manual

  • Skynard

    US EST

  • RoastBeeph

    I see, thanks, misunderstood what you were saying.

  • Bill

    Mole, or maybe Scott, wrote something recently about (I could have this wrong) tracking changes in market condition with your equity curve rather than trying to use some other method. If your previously winning system is now losing something has changed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very important to watch the Zero this morning for clues.

  • randomuser6789

    I so love to read comments from Scott and Mole. My BS detector never goes off. I don’t have to “read between the lines” You guys are straight shooters. Thanks for all you do.
    Ivan has a different style, which is more gentle in nature, but he is always spilling out wisdom just like Scott and Mole. I love it here.

  • BobbyLow

    Skynard is a Trading Bot that escaped from Goldman Sachs. He does not need sleep only occasional maintenance and WD 40. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Those periods are easy to see after the fact….. maybe the board has worked with methods of seeing them in advance?”

    Depending on the system they are easy to see after the fact. Sometimes they are actually not and it’s highly system specific – meaning it’s affected by what type of entries you are taking (obviously). But even IF it’s painfully obvious after the fact in many cases we respond too late and it can be counter productive attempting to adjust.

    Take for instance the equity curve filter – CrazyIvan slightly benefits from it but only in that draw down periods are shallower. Some systems actually suffer, especially trend trading systems as early break outs are being ignored after which the system turns on just ahead of the ensuing pullback.

    This is a highly complicated issue and there apparently is no easy solution to optimizing cyclical systems. I have tried many approaches promising automated market period categorization but thus far have not found anything useful.

  • Round we go

    big perspective

  • tradingmom

    20 yr spx monthly — why it is important that the August lows hold.

  • RoastBeeph

    All red 5 minute candles so far.

  • Skynard

    Shaking weak hands

  • BobbyLow

    If you had been trading long term fundamentals in the past, perhaps you were trading regular equites either individual or etf’s . Or Options using Leaps or something of this nature.

    Day trading this stuff (not Leaps) is one thing but holding for shorter term swings is more difficult because of the lack of control with overnight gaps and all the bull shit that goes on in the equity market. One of the reasons why, I now keep smaller positions in play with equities is so that I can weather just about any change in market conditions. ( I can not tell when market conditions are about to change and I’m not sure anyone can.)

    This is also why I concentrate more on the Forex for shorter term trades. I find it to be a more straight forward arena in which to do battle, am rarely gapped out, and a place that is much easier to adapt to changing market conditions.

    So I guess what I’m suggesting is that if you are not already doing so that you might want to give Forex a try.

  • mugabe

    what do u do about sleep?

  • Round we go

    stupid channel built a second floor, maybe it will add a basement.

  • tradingmom

    For Scott — Thx for your constructive commentary. I’m not ignoring you, but I’ve got a million things going on in the background. I’ll try to respond soon after hours.

  • RoastBeeph

    Just as I say that, a huge green candle finishes. :)

  • BKXtoZERO

    again ;(

  • Skynard

    You bet, div will play out

  • Skynard

    Lol, either that or the gag fill. Must be prepaired for your stance:)

  • Round we go

    it needs to test 1900 breakdown.

  • Skynard

    Bot don’t need any, sleep is for closers:)

  • Skynard

    Dude, this things will rocket, market will squeeze the piss out of shorts now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was just pondering this question a bit more and something popped into my mind. In essence what we are trying to do is to match an ongoing data series to a set of rules, right? I actually did a bit of work with Support Vector Machines and what I learned was not encouraging. Despite a bunch of promising white papers I was not able to produce any edge in predicting future trade direction by categorizing vectors of price action (e.g. volatility, price, price %, and others). What that told me was that, at least on a short term and daily basis, price action is highly dynamic and most likely stochastic. In English – I was not able to define any classification that provided a long term edge. I was a bit more successful by using Dynamic Time Warping and similar techniques. But the edge was rarely over 55%-60%.

    So what does it really mean when a system produces positive results during a particular time period? We profit – sure – but essentially it means that price action produces an increase in one parameter (i.e. money) more often than it produces a decrease. For us that is the most important parameter as it is our main measure. When the time series interacting with our system (i.e. our rules) starts to shift we attempt to compensate buy changing the system or by turning it off. The main problem is that our responses will always be lagging the time series.

    The envisioned key to solving this problem is to figure out what causes an action that produces a decrease in money. The action that triggers this is the entry. But what is an ‘entry’ – it is a set of rules that responds to changes in our time series (i.e. price action). We usually look at the actual entry event as a singularity – meaning there is a set of parameters that needs to be satisfied for the logic to fire.

    By widening the scope (i.e. bringing in volatility measures, correlations, etc.) we are basically adding logic that looks either vertically or horizontally (i.e. consider price action ahead of the tape – sometimes perhaps after). The assumption here is that additional data will provide further insights and thus mitigate a period of negative outcomes. Recall however my first paragraph above in which I mentioned that I had very little success in categorizing vectors containing a combination of various market measures via my SVM, ANN, and related research.

    Basically by driving on the freeway it is very difficult to predict whether or not it’s going to rain based on prior data (barring modern weather prediction of course). You drive along and suddenly it rains – you turn on the windshield wiper and your lights. And the odds that it’ll rain a minute from now are pretty good, but 10 minutes – who knows. An hour later? No idea.

    I think the best approach is to be simply responsive instead of predictive. There is an assumption that market periods exist – and in hindsight they do – just like the weather. But they are highly dynamic systems and can change suddenly or gradually. Volatility can be predicted a lot more effectively as it comes/goes in surges but direction cannot. So if your system is direction sensitive then your best option is to accept losses and to keep them small. You should know the maximum amount of statistical losses and max amount of consecutive losses in your system. If those are exceeding a threshold then lowering your position sizing may be adequate. Note that is is different from an SMA based equity filter which turns systems off/on based on P&L thresholds.

    In summary – as data series seem to be stochastic in nature a solution most likely cannot be found in deterministic measures, instead stochastic models should be used.

    I hope I didn’t lose you guys there. If there are holes in my reasoning then please feel free to chime in.

  • satouse

    If further down we go, we’ll likely breach it, triggering stops and new shorts and then bounce above for a retest of ES 1890.

  • Skynard

    /ES above 1885 should fly:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    To simplify it down even further. Let’s say your system averages 7 consecutive losers at maximum over a statistically valid sample set. What I’m saying is that you cannot know ahead of time whether or not you will reach those. You also could have three losers followed by one winner followed by five losers. Attempting to find measures that allow you to predict an excessive series of negative outcomes are tempting but rely on deterministic relationships, which I have not been able to identify.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Crude has spent an entire month inside a very narrow range w/ bollingers contracting. It will be a mover once resolved and direction is up in the air. Perhaps stocks will lead the way?

  • Skynard

    Time to make a move, ZL bullish

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Just got stopped out of small SDS from yesterday premarket. Watching for test of resistance

  • Huey

    Yeah that thing is all coiled up! Got long this morning with a stop just above 43.

  • Bill

    In case dynamic time warping was a new term for others as well….

    From Wikipedia: In time series analysis, dynamic time warping (DTW) is an algorithm for measuring similarity between two temporal sequences which may vary in time or speed. For instance, similarities in walking patterns could be detected using DTW, even if one person was walking faster than the other, or if there were accelerations and decelerations during the course of an observation.

    My layman interpretation is that you would use it to look for congruent, not exact, data patterns over varying time periods in a data set. I am likely wrong.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/j9cbsutE/

    like the small caps better at this level but still looking lower after the rally.

  • Careus

    Filtering can be made on more ways…Ivan shared some ideas recently.

    I played with CI equity curve (data from couple a weeks ago), and have applied my own filter. Firstly I adjusted all CI results as they were taken with same R (those filtered by Mole).
    Then have run my filter on that data (not moving average or similar).
    First chart (red line) is what CI did with filtering by Mole.
    Next chart (blue line) is filtered with my filter, resulted in deeper draw, but very close end result and half of campaigns.
    Third chart (blue and green line) is my filtered results but on day by day basis (blue line). And then I applied same filter to get filtered daily results (green line)

    Maybe it makes sense to run more filters on equity curve. As running it on daily provides less trading days (still other markets can be traded). Also combo of campaign by campaign and daily can work well.
    Idea here is that ‘good’ and ‘bad’ days are clustered..they tend to last some time…

  • saltwaterdog

    Intellectually this makes sense… looking for solutions to a perceived problem assumes that there is a repeating and identifiable problem, as well as a solution to avoid it, both spurious.

    Practically though, it feels different. If we use the opposite extreme of an entry bar as the ISL for a campaign, I’m sure we can agree from experience that there are times when that ISL is breached in P2 or P3 on repeated occasions without a “run” of any kind (X bars of unbroken lows for a long, or X bars that fail to breach the nearest Spike Low, whatever your cup of measurement is). My best test for getting out seems to be (recognizing that recency is at play here) measuring the success of the last Y campaigns. Said differently, quit while you are ahead in a given timeframe.

  • Skynard

    Yes sir, recovery rally only. SPX 1970, could squeeze higher to 2K

  • satouse

    does not look like a trend day

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Good volume on this move too

  • Billabong

    If you’re a swing trader and not in, I would wait for breakdown or breakout …. $43-48. Money moves commodities …

  • Billabong

    Why long and not short? Directional bias? Right now CL has just about recovered what it went down yesterday.

  • Skynard

    Have to break the bears, could see a strong move.

  • Skynard

    Would strongly suggest you do not short this move.

  • Huey

    The previous directional move was up strongly from 37.75 to nearly 50 in 3 days. Going with that momentum.

  • BKXtoZERO

    from my records I posted a while back I only had one short using DWTI and the rest were long. I’d like to think I am not biased on oil. Using DWTI was just new for me but I’d like to think I’d be ready for either now in a second.

  • Darkthirty

    Re draw it with a little thought, got 2 channels there…

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    heavy resistance around that 1888- 1890 area

  • Round we go

    yah stupid mid line should tilt lower. es mid band would be around 1890 top line 1920, bottom 1860

  • Billabong

    This is part of the psychological hurdle we all have cross in order to only act on price action and avoid telling the market what to do.

  • Skynard

    W3 about to start, those are the fun one’s:)

  • satouse

    this looks like a retest of the ES 1890-1902 volume pit. I am medium term short, but have some dry powder to add some more shorts if I see a neg div on the 5 min chart when price reaches these levels. Let us see what will happen when Europe closes.

  • Billabong

    YM – 16K starting to look like resistance … more to follow.

  • Skynard

    Squeeze coming

  • Darkthirty

    use a line chart, start with the bottom line at 1940 to 1917? the correction should start in the center of the channel

  • Skynard

    /PL coming around

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    the only way this is going up is some sort of a news that just shoots the minis over 1902 in one shot within seconds…. otherwise i’m afraid there is too much resistance in the 1890-1900 area

  • Skynard

    Thought like that before, that is lethal

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    look at the volume profile between 1890 – 1900 ..

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’zero – I suggest you put that Question / Hypothesis to the test … it may turn out to be a real eye-opener for you.

  • Skynard

    Seen your post, never know go with the flow. Bears in control but market needs to flush out shorts. Day trader, swinger. You may be longer term than me.

  • Darkthirty

    4?, turned on 382….

  • Billabong

    Skynard has a great point (we’re not slamming you). Notice on my post two down on YM … “starting to look…” Price action doesn’t support my observation … If it was a directional prediction it would be totally useless.

    EDIT: Also, you guys are working different time periods to me.

  • Billabong

    The master brings wisdom to the grasshoppers (myself included).

  • Billabong

    You’re up early … 2:20 am.

  • Skynard

    abc, ignition strated.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – I graze on sleep … have done for 30 + years … currently peeking over the shoulder of a student in real time via the net … jolly good fun.

  • Round we go

    or it could burn off the heat by going sideways.

  • Skynard

    At this point you will not see a sideways market, volatility is to high. That is when the extreme traders come out of the woodwork:)

  • Round we go

    people become numb to the fear as they get used to it, if we are in a secular bear cycle. it could be time for a reality check. will see. but i am in the mode to short rallies. also look at the RUT for leadership.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – In my world / view I am not a master … I am still a student.

    EDIT: A humble one at that … my involvement with the markets has enhanced my Journey immeasurably … on many levels.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    chopswey is being served for lunch it seems today!

  • Darkthirty

    Always a student ! When you make a statement, you lose forward progress for you must build a wall and defend the statement…………..

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    Gartman came out this morning calling for 1450 – 1550 on the S&P .. lol one needs to seriously start considering their short book… !
    at least in the intermediate term till he goes bullish again.

  • Skynard

    Lol, nice

  • SirDagonet

    Humility is, IMO, an extremely admirable quality. Nevertheless, your knowledge & experience is not only legendary, but responsible for the education & training of other masters (Scott, as one we all know of…)

  • BobbyLow

    Gartman ever put out his trading record? Just curious because I remember him being wrong a lot a few years ago. I think these guys pick a winner every once in awhile and then profess to be an expert.

    I believe most these guys are full of shit.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Bearish wedge breakdown, possible med term target 1750/1700?

  • RoastBeeph

    He seems like he is zero for his last 50 calls. Best contrarian indicator out there.

  • ridingwaves

    bulls are weak with the VIX this elevated…cannot sustain a move so far….end of quarter fund rotation is still playing out…hedging with puts seems to be pretty strong

  • SirDagonet

    I don’t know if this is germane to your remarks, but (my understanding of) Scott’s current thinking is to find a trading edge (and a system that can exploit that edge) with the lowest drawdown possible (as opposed to the largest return over a period of time), so as to allow larger %R positions. Does that fit into your “responsive instead of predictive” concept?

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t know how guys like him, Cramer and the rest of the carnival barkers on CNBC are still around. But I suppose it’s like as PT Barnum supposedly said – “There’s a sucker born every minute”. :)

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    Skynard.. to me todays price action is looking like some sort of a smaller degree wave 4 playing out.. your thoughts?

  • SirDagonet

    “Skynard is a Trading Bot that escaped from Goldman Sachs”
    Haaaaa… the one that got away…

  • tradingmom

    If the current hourly candle closes w/o making a new low then I think it looks like the bottom might be in for a bit.

  • Darkthirty

    3 of 3 of 5 or c of b

  • RoastBeeph

    Another test of 1900 ES coming?

  • SirDagonet

    Slightly OT, but as a psych major, I find this type of information interesting…

    http://www.npr.org/2015/09/29/444398776/the-thrill-of-near-victory

    Let’s sidestep the comparison of gamblers and traders, and instead concentrate on the notion that humans get “excitement when they think they are getting close to a win”. I wonder if trading system design & analysis falls into this trap?

  • Darkthirty

    Absolutely! Successful traders testosterone is higher also……

  • Skynard

    That is very possible, to complete the last leg. Could also be truncated..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    @saltwaterdog – per your comment below.

    Exactly – the odds of taking entry scenario A may differ based on context. However defining that context has proven to be difficult. Now I have to concede that I was merely attempting to map price vectors into categories (via my SVM) and then predict future price direction. What is a lot more difficult would be to map vectors to entries.

    For the uninitiated – there is a difference: If I take a time series vector, let’s say a series of discrete price points (e.g. spike lows and spike highs) and then attempt to predict the direction of the next two or three candles then I may get very little I can use. Which upon reflection is exactly what I have done. It’s what most people have tried if I’m not mistaken.

    Now taking entries in the context of price vector categories is a completely different ball game. The first two or three candles may not go anywhere but the entry may still succeed. Now how to test that would be to assemble the vectors into categories beforehand – instead of binary categories you could sort them into perhaps a dozen. The exercise is not to predict the future here, you simply produce an extract – an abstract context which you then feed into your strategy.

    The category then becomes an aspect of your strategy – you test entries based on rules but the current ‘state of the tape’ so to say is being fed into the strategy without chaotic parameter settings and complex rules. This is the route I have not attempted yet – and quite frankly someone could spend quite a bit of time on the first task – proper market categorization. And again, you would always look in the rear mirror – I’m not sure if there is a predictive quality whatsoever to this. But it may be worth a shot.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I dunno – I’m still long here and thus far the Zero looks supportive.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This should tell you something. Selling pressure is abating and UNTIL new lows are being produced this is a potential long opportunity. If we breach today’s lows then I think we drop quite a bit lower.

  • RoastBeeph

    ES on 5 minutes looks like a possible inverse head and shoulders forming.

  • Skynard

    Could be a 3 here again.

  • newbfxtrader

    yeah. With you on that one for a nice bounce.

  • Skynard

    FN awesome div right here

  • Kishore Kumar

    You may find the following relevant:

    Free software “R”, for time series analysis, that many people have been using to develop trading systems:

    https://www.r-project.org/
    http://blog.fosstrading.com/2011/03/how-to-backtest-strategy-in-r.html
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61_F2fcvrsw

    Most probably, it beats Ninja Trader’s Strategy Analyzer.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    added to NQ long here at 4085, avg out to 4117

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sounds interesting – I’ll absorb it this weekend.

  • Kishore Kumar
  • Skynard

    Nice, scaring the childnen, ah?:) FN running the stops

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    SPX 1869 Pivot coming up……

  • Skynard

    Got your 5th leg

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    im looking at ES 1851 to fire some longs if it does get there…

  • Skynard

    All you get, lol:)

  • Skynard

    Added to calls:)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Let it suck in more shorts. I dare it.

  • Round we go

    the RUT is below yesterdays low. NASDAQ as well.

  • Skynard

    Lol, think that is all that is happening here, time for that div to play out now:)

  • Skynard

    Think all the shorts will fire this thing higher covering

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    I tell ya what .. wherever this wave bottoms.. its gonna shoot up 10-15 points in matter of 2 – 3 mins…

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    and my guess is sometime tommorow or the next day!

  • Skynard

    That is what we are all waiting for:)

  • Billabong

    NQ LOD

  • Billabong

    Tomorrow is EOQ

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was just thinking (laughter) that you are not above having your psychology altered by the MKT as well. You are persistent and may very well be right but there is a fair amount of conditioning that went on for years and I was just thinking that even the guys on this board may not be above that to some degree. Just a thought…..

  • Skynard

    hehehe, yep

  • Edd

    Emotions, feelings, etc never go away for me. They simply must be mastered. My trading plan dictates my entries and my exits. My feelings frankly do not enter in. If I cannot master this, then I have to find another venue for my efforts. It really is that simple.

  • Skynard

    Release the kraken:)

  • Edd

    +4r 10min chart last hour SQQQ

  • Billabong

    Good for you … WE know it’s tough and at least you’re trying to overcome that hurdle. Are you reading any of the trading psychology books?

  • Skynard

    Lost allot of coin my brother. Consider it training:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes that would be listening to price and seeing confirmation first rather than expecting or predicting a turn (many here expect) although many of you are good at that, Scott pounds against it.

  • Edd

    No, not pure psych books. Many, many trading books that have psych issues/ aspects in them. Have tried in past just not for me. It has taken me over 4 years to undo prior damage and get to the point where I am today. Lessons learned here from all herewith has been the icing on the cake. My point to BKX is I have learned to master my feelings , not eliminate them. A disciplined RBT with laser like focus has been my secret to success in overcoming emotions

  • Billabong

    ES / YM pretty flat today … NQ hasn’t taken the brunt of it today down 1% … so far.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Edd – regarding emotions and feelings … from my experience best not to squash them … let them flow and then compartmentalise them … and back to FAAA – Focus Aware Alert Act.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    I find bear markets in bear mode to be much easier to trade… Maybe all the QE helicopter money being injected was what was making most of the technical analysis not work all that well during the bull run..

    Thoughts?

  • newbfxtrader

    You should stop thinking like this right away.

  • Skynard

    Much more difficult with volitility involved

  • Billabong

    You may have already read some of trading psychology books: Dr. Alexander Elder, Van Tharp, Brett Steenbarger, Mark Douglas, etc…

  • Skynard

    Go bitch:)

  • Billabong

    IK, I appreciated your thoughts about growing beyond trading. I’ve reached a new level in life as a direct result of learning what it takes in the trading world just to survive and applying that to everyday life.

  • RoastBeeph

    Damn, that was quick.

  • Billabong

    Look at that ES doji … hmmm?

  • Skynard

    Sucked in remaining shorts into the abyss

  • Edd

    Yes, B, all mentioned. Found Van Tharp trading to be outstanding, the rest of his discourse into psych issues, frankly struck me as just so much BS.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    NQ needs to catch up. Thats my bitch. Lets go.

  • Billabong

    Sure did … 35 point move in NQ / 20 mins

  • Skynard

    Lol, go damnit. Takes some time but should be a good day tomorrow:)

  • BobbyLow

    The day I stop feeling is the day I stop breathing. :)

    Like Ivan said “best not to squash feelings”. Scott has also intimated, it is much better to “feel” my feelings and not surpress them. So for me it’s ok to feel them whether it’s disapointment, satisfaction, anger, joy, or whatever. The same thing probably applies to life in general.

    But as these feelings relate to my trading, I believe that allowing any of them to influence a trading decision has a good chance of doing damage to my accounts.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – whatever emotions / feelings are experienced in life are also experienced in trading … and vice versa … and both are strewn with challenges.

  • RoastBeeph

    Did some news hit? Why are markets skyrocketing in the last 10 minutes?

  • Bill

    It looked dire for a while there. Must of been a really good zero signal.

  • Skynard

    Trump will be our next pres:)

  • Skynard

    Div builds up over a certain time until it decides to play out

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Maybe there’s a new blonde on CNBC

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    4 hr chart…mkt not SKYROCKETING….just at support

  • Edd

    Wasted much time and effort Ivan trying to do just that, squash em.
    Compartmentalize wasn`t the word I was thinking of in my case. Cohabitate peacefully perhaps? Thanks Ivan.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    On longer term bases.. we have till end of trading tommorow to close above 1895 on the eminis.

    If we close below that Level.. this market is going much much lower by end of the next 3 months.

  • BobbyLow

    Wow! There seems to be a lot of predicting going on in here lately.

    Three months from now? I have a hard enough time just being concerned about the next three days. :)

  • BobbyLow

    I wonder if Maria Fartaramo is still on? Not her, but there used to be a couple of decent babes on back in the late 90’s. I havent watched CNBC for a few years now because it’s bad for my financial health. :)

  • Bill

    New posters. Still shaking off the Zerohedge-itis. 😉

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    Gann 240…

  • Bill

    Perhaps a good life hack to fix a lack of mindfulness of the present would be to take laxatives for a week. Can’t get much more focused on that now then when you constantly have to go.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    this might actually be playing out :) lol

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPlsno1WwAEPiuv.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    If it works for you than you gotta do what you gotta do Kevin. One of my paid Guru’s that I had a long time ago was a “Gann” Guy. I forgot how many thousands that journey cost me. Probably not as much as my EW Journey but it was a whack none the less.

    My experiences with long term forcasts have really sucked so I gave them up too. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    do any of you guys have issues loading disqus today?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    yea, earlier this morning I did.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, bear markets move faster but they also reverse faster. If your personality type prefers volatile trending conditions with sudden counter swings then you will most likely do well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s a turd – and there isn’t even a support page anymore – they just run you through useless FAQ pages. Bunch of wankers.

  • Bill

    Yes. Not only today but the last few days. Disqus may load like molasses but at least they never forget to spam me 5+ emails everyday.

  • hellbent

    No but it says zero comments just up above you there.

  • RoastBeeph

    It only updated for me intermittenly. I didn’t know I had 8 responses until 4 PM today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Spam? I think you can turn off all notifications in your admin console.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Ivan, I am sure you know about Vipassana Meditation and may have even practiced it yourself. Over a 10 day continuous period of doing the meditation, without doing much else, all the stored experiences bubble up from the subconscious mind. The undesirable ones cause physical uneasiness or unpleasant sensations. The technique is to
    just watch the physical sensations without acting on them, as were acted upon in the past. This has cured even very angry hard core criminals as well as out of control drug addicts. There are centers all over the world. https://www.dhamma.org/

    I have no personal affiliation with them. Personally, I would rather do it at home.

  • Scott Phillips

    Gann is fraud, pure and simple. Sorry, but best you hear it early :-)

  • ridingwaves

    pretty stable in Chrome so far with occasional server request glitch

    tomorrow is usually red statistically..what sector will money rotate into?

  • BobbyLow

    Mine worked fine all day using Google Chrome Browser.

  • Edd

    Likewise here. When I inadvertently use IE always have more problems.

  • mugabe

    ditto

  • mugabe

    Alexander Elder, in his book Trading for a Living, has this to say about Gann:

    “Various opportunists sell “Gann courses” and “Gann Software.” They claim that Gann was one of the best traders who ever lived, that he left a $50 million estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Gann’s son, an analyst for a Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house, was valued at slightly over $100,000. The “legend” of W.D. Gann, the giant of trading, is perpetuated by those who sell courses and other paraphernalia to gullible customers.”

  • mugabe

    I come back to what brett Steenbarger said about this: a lot of traders have psychological issues because they don’t have an edge, and they then start to blame ‘them’ ‘stop runners’, QE, etc. It’s the losses that provoke the psychological issues .. not always, but often,

  • Scott Phillips

    For 99 out of 100 people definitely not. Bear markets are by their very nature places of high emotion and savage swings. It is not possible for this to be easier than trading a nice orderly one way bullish move with shallow pullbacks.

    Most likely you think this is FUN (which it is) which is very different to being easy.

  • Scott Phillips

    There is a better way. Stop trying to “master” your feelings or mindfuck them away.

    Most of the aberrant trading we do when “on tilt” is a subconscious effort to avoid feeling certain feelings.

    “The trader who is willing to feel shame rarely does” – Seykota

  • Scott Phillips

    Show me the results of a prediction monkey who has made it work.

    Just one.

    I’m not talking about guys who CLAIM to do it here. I post my results. Mole posts his… BobbyLow posts his. Until you see a single trader in the “prediction” business post his trading results (and since 2002 I haven’t seen one) you should treat all their claims as bullshit.

  • Scott Phillips

    YES. No amount of psychological hocus pocus will allow for not having an objective edge in the markets

  • Scott Phillips

    I’ve done that 10 day course several times. Pure agony :-)

  • RoastBeeph

    Has Zero Hedge ever been bullish? I’ve been following the site for a couple of years and don’t know if I’ve ever seen that site with a bullish outlook. They do have some funny articles, though.

  • BKXtoZERO

    That was my point on a day full of predictions for a reversal here:

    ” molecool Mod Skynard • a day ago

    And it’s STILL too early – we need to see:

    1. A bonafide pronounced divergence.
    2. Price to confirm as well – e.g. a spike low.

    Unless that happens you’re flapping your wings for nothing.”

  • Scott Phillips

    Gann is based around a 45 degree line. The question I want to ask them all is…. what if the scale changes?

  • Scott Phillips

    I trade much better since I went on Testosterone Replacement Therapy.

    I recommend it to every man who is not a fan of ageing

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    open up your spx chart.. start from 666 and move up 240 points … All inflection points…

    not jibberish

  • Darkthirty

    The risk is overdoing it.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    now you take the high 2135 – 240 = 1895… we close below it tommorow on a monthly/ quarterly close.. we’re going down intermediate term…just a confirmation among all the other factors in play…

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m very happy with my positioning today

    http://snag.gy/CljpH.jpg

  • Scott Phillips

    I always wondered about their business model. They don’t charge for it, right?

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s a great site even just to see how much of what you read is bias. Very unhelpful for beginning traders

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – Perhaps it is the chicken and the egg situation … the ‘unnatural / uncommon / untaught’ act of making decisions and being held accountable (almost instantly) is sure to impact one .. especially when those decisions do not pan out as ‘expected’ … and hence many emotions are released or elevated to the fore … perhaps even emotions that one is not aware of on a conscious level.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    nice work !

    Good pay day indeed

  • Bill

    I can buy that some channels, triangles, and other chart patterns might form and then effect the market because many people see them and consider them important (a mass self fulfilling prophecy). I doubt the Gann lines are seen / used by nearly as many people so I don’t know how they would have any effect.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    They have been bearish and saying the world is going to hell in a handbasket since the market bottom lol

  • Scott Phillips

    Yep, I get regular blood work to make sure I stay in the normal range and not supra physiological

    I literally measure my life in before TRT/after TRT. The effect on mood, confidence, recovery from exercise, libido (I fuck nearly every day now, its like being young again!), general optimism and zest for life… all remarkable.

    The physical effects speak for themselves.

    Before: http://snag.gy/PxrsT.jpg

    6 months after starting http://snag.gy/4E6bF.jpg

    I CANNOT recommend this highly enough if you are over 40. This is a good article http://www.dangerandplay.com/2013/11/12/testosterone-replacement-therapy-trt/

  • Scott Phillips

    Follow the rules. It’s been a rough year for my strategy (after an incredible year last year), but it feels different now. Market type is changing

  • Scott Phillips

    Yes. The most likely reason is that he fucked up early in his career being bearish counter trend biased (who didnt?) and deep down hates bull markets.

  • Scott Phillips

    Most of the feelings we are trying to avoid are things from childhood. Our subconscious pushes us in weird directions (creates drama) in order for us to feel those unresolved feelings.

    If you don’t like feeling frustrated you end up taking a lot of trades which make you frustrated
    If you don’t like feeling under pressure you end up taking trades which make you feel extreme pressure

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    which rules?

  • Scott Phillips

    My system rules

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    ah ok.. Thought I posted something wrong here…

    Congrats anyhow .. that is a killer PnL which im sure most of us here would drewl over!

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s only one day mate tomorrow could wipe it all out and then some.

  • Bill

    That site, and most others, has one purpose, get people to click on as many pages (and ads) as possible. It’s just like cable news, Buzzfeed, Alex Jones, or The Kardashians. They just want your attention. The content is focused on what gets clicks. Modern day carnies.

  • Bill

    Thor is right at the -12R point that was mentioned in the original release article. I’m getting excited for the turn around soon.

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    just take a look .. it speaks for itself…

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    whats your systems methodology based on?

  • RoastBeeph

    Only $40k profit? How are you supposed to live on that? :)

  • RoastBeeph

    Didn’t

  • RoastBeeph

    nm

  • Scott Phillips

    There is a huge delta between Mole’s system and mine now, we are vastly different through matters of universe selection and correlation.

  • Scott Phillips

    Trend following

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s been an up and down year! 100K drawdown in September, to close it out with a very small profit

  • Scott Phillips

    September equity curve – not particularly inspiring :)

    http://snag.gy/PVqh7.jpg

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s complete unadulterated twaddle.

    Horseshit

    There are NO prediction methods that work. None.

    “The future’s not set, there is no fate but what we make for ourselves” – Sarah Connor (Terminator)

  • Scott Phillips

    No it doesn’t. It’s an illusion.

    You are a pattern matching machine. You evolved for it. You were bred for it.

    When a pattern even looks kinda maybe possible human brains instinctively go “OH FUCK OH JOY A FUCKING PATTERN, HOW FUCKING AWESOME I LOVE PATTERNS!!!!”

    Like a dog with a treat, pattern recognition sets off powerful brain chemistry reactions for us. We are magnetically attracted to believing in them.

    So when a pattern offers to solve one of the most frustrating things about markets (that we don’t know what happens next) we latch onto it like drowning men.

    There are NO profitable Gann traders, but plenty of profitable Gann system sellers and book sellers and course sellers.

    Sorry mate, unless you get this out of your system now, there is literally no way for you to become a profitable trader. You will NOT be the first profitable Gann trader in the history of trading.

    I’ve sugarcoated this by the way 😉

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    hahah… :)

    point taken.

  • Scott Phillips

    Seriously mate – you WILL blow up thinking that one simple thing divines the future direction of the stock market.

    The markets are breathtakingly complicated and interconnected worldwide.

    If Gann theory worked do you really think algo’s wouldn’t be all over it by now. There is a reason professional traders, prop desk traders, and banksters LAUGH at Gann theory.

    Laugh. Out loud. It’s a scam. Don’t be a sucker, suckers get sucker punched 😉

  • Kevin Mcdonald
  • TheRooster

    I can’t find the article right now but somewhere out there is an experiment where someone randomly drew lines on a chart and published it but didn’t tell anyone what they were. For the next 2 years people saw them as inflection points and wanted to know his secret as the market always seemed to turn at or ‘near’ these points.

    “I want to believe”
    Fox Mulder

    “I don’t want to believe. I want to know.”

    Carl Sagan

  • BKXtoZERO

    I’ll see you a nickel and raise you a quarter :-)

  • BKXtoZERO

    “tomorrow could wipe it all out and then some”
    That should NOT happen! STOP trading NOW before you wipe yourself out! :-) :-) 😉 😉 !!!

  • Bill
  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    As opposed to a marked-to-mark PnL … a far more real way is view open positions ‘marked-to-stop-loss’ … leading to far easier ride on the emotional roller coaster … and technically not rocket science.

  • Scott Phillips

    Tried it. It’s just a *different*, not necessarily better measurement to me.

    It understates performance because at any time a bunch of new trades open will mean a lot of new trades at initial stop loss.

    So if I take on 5 new positions today it will *look* (incorrectly) like I am doing poorly when I have 5 potential winning trades open.

  • Scott Phillips

    The difference is that I am guaranteed of long term success if I keep doing what I am doing because I have the odds on my side.

    If you keep doing what you are doing you are guaranteed of long term failure because the odds are against you. The more silly bets you take, the more comfortable you get taking silly bets, the more taking poor bets becomes normal…. the more certain you are to fail :-)

  • Scott Phillips

    ^^^^^ excellent point!

  • Scott Phillips

    The guys who blame the market makers, bots, stop runners, fucking banks, manipulation, the fed….. without exception these guys are losing traders. Look at TK, loser, extraordinaire

    A key trait of winning traders (and winners in life, and adult humans in general) is taking responsibility for their results. One of the things we intuitively like in markets is that they strip the bullshit aside. Either I have the skill to make money, or I go broke, there is no middle ground.

    When I started trading I lost money. I did not have the skills necessary to make money. This period lasted many years. It was all my fault.

  • Scott Phillips

    Agree completely. This is last chance for the bulls, if they fumble the ball here they are in for a beating with extra kicking.

    Evidence is that recently the bulls have been the ones fumbling, as opposed to the last 5 years where the bears have fucked it up every time.

    I think its a coin flip with very slight advantage to bears.

  • Scott Phillips

    Excellent and subtle point you made there!

  • RoastBeeph

    Wow, stock futures are rocketing up overnight. What is driving this move? (NQ up +29, ES up +12, as of 11:20 EST).

  • Scott Phillips

    You seem to want to write this complicated narrative to go with your trading.

    Phrases like “moral hazard” and “secular bear cycle” are redolent of someone looking to read deeply into things and understand completely. Understand this is simply not possible. Right now we are going down, bears are in cruise control. Bulls have a very small window of opportunity to seize momentum back, which would start a short covering rally of unknown duration.

    That’s all we know for now.

  • Scott Phillips

    All good Mom! I’m not being critical, just trying to help :)

  • Scott Phillips

    A more appropriate way to think of a channel is as of A WEAKENING TREND.

    Therefore the actual place of the lines and the support they do or don’t offer is of little significance. What is of significant is that

    – Deep in a move two sided price action is happening, which indicates a market which is closing towards equilibrium
    – Volatility in the short term is increasing deep in a move, which is classically a sign of being close to the end of one phase
    – When we overthrow to the trend side of a channel (break to the downside in this downward channel) the odds are strong that it would be a violent break and ALSO the odds are strong this is the last gasp of that phase of the move.

    Channels by and of themselves are of very little import and marginal edge. They are of tremendous use in helping us know more information about the state of the current move and the likely probabilities of what comes next

  • Skynard

    The Skynard

  • Scott Phillips

    This conundrum (when to turn it off) is the biggest problem in my life.

    I wish I had some satisfactory solution to tell you. I have about 50 things I’ve tried that haven’t worked, like Edison I’ve found 50 ways not to invent the lightbulb.

    Sigh

  • Scott Phillips

    This is very interesting. Could you explain more please :-)

    Thanks for sharing

  • Scott Phillips

    Are you talking about gamblers fallacy?

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s a shitty solution, but like Mole I’ve been banging my head against this wall for several years now with frankly pathetic results.

    Mole and I have tried many different complicated and innovative solutions….

  • Scott Phillips

    Unless you are a professional programmer automated trading is not for you. Even with Mole standing in my corner helping me, its not for me, you really need the flexibility to be able to change your own code as necessary

  • RoastBeeph

    LOL uncanny

  • Scott Phillips

    Mine looks a LOT better that that 😉

    You also forgot to show the first part of the equity curve, where you started out and decimated your account trading like a noodlehead. Don’t pretend you didn’t 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    It subjectively feels like a corner has turned for it in the last month. I’m very optimistic about it right now

  • Scott Phillips

    Change most to “all”. What they claim to do, the entire premise of what they are trying (unsuccessfully) to do, is impossible.

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m gentle as a punch in the face!

  • Scott Phillips

    Is your filter on the basis of X number of losing trades skip one or something like that?

    If so it is complicated by the fact that CI trades unrelated markets simulaneously and the results there would have to be split into a by-instrument classification first

  • Skynard

    You want to be long until Euro open

  • BKXtoZERO

    That was going to be my answer. That last GO BITCH must have done it. Congrats (AGAIN).

  • BKXtoZERO

    I pulled money out to work on my house and haven’t been doing much trading. Bought some Nat Gas.

  • ridingwaves

    Dollar move to 94.50 maybe overshoot could help equities north with some commodities to boot.. Short with Stop at 96.34

    http://s1.postimg.org/5o8bpbay7/DX_setup.jpg

  • Scott Phillips

    Pull it all out and put it on the house :)

    Nat Gas is a very clear downtrend, this is a poor trade

  • Scott Phillips

    This is what that Quant guy Chan (epchan.blogspot.com) advocates

  • Careus

    Not based on that or similar.

    After I downloaded CI data, I separated data for each market and run filter on those markets. then I used filtered data to construct filtered equity curve.

    If markets are unrelated what is point in filtering them in total (combined equity curve) as some ‘good’ markets are punished by some ‘bad’.

    Let your winners run and cut your losers sounds good here…

    Filtering each market makes more sense, even it is better for total risk management (or even margin utilization)

    Regarding filter can’t share much more unless I sell it, hehe..sorry but you guys here are well know for ‘stealing’ other people trading ideas 😉
    P.S. I tested this filter on dozens of equity curves of different systems and timeframes..it is eye opening when you see it what it does.

  • phylum

    Probably above my pay grade but “look” vs “banked” are totally different scenarios

  • phylum

    Legend:)

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m no master. Masters of trading measure their wealth in tens of millions of dollars or more.

    In TOTAL my trading profits, though significant (and my last losing year was 2010), still have not outweighed my early trading losses (which were about a million dollars)

    You cannot, by definition, call a net loser a master. But I’m confident I’m on the right track, and have many years of profitability in front of me. Fortunately I did not decimate my wealth to the point where I can still point significant capital at the markets when I decide its appropriate.

    I don’t think there is anyone… Mole, Ivan and myself included who is anywhere near mastery of this game

  • Scott Phillips

    So let me get this straight.

    Mole shares his results.

    Ivan shares his equity curve concepts.

    Mole and I share literally everything we know and test about equity curve filters, hiding nothing. Obviously whatever you read from us at the very least saved you many blind alleys, and no doubt provided you a platform to work from.

    And you want to pretend you have this great thing, but “you can’t tell us because we’d use it.”

    So WHAT? How would it hurt you if every trader here started adopting your ideas. I (and Mole and Ivan, and everyone else) share EVERYTHING we have ever done.

    That is the ETHOS of this place. That is WHY it exists. To share with others what we know, to build on it, and share the results.

    You just made the blacklist buddy. You can go fuck yourself with a sharp stick.

  • Scott Phillips

    In a practical sense measuring equity back to ISL level is a non-trival job. It’s another 15min job to do each day at the busiest time of the day.

    It has to add something substantial to my life. It has to be actionable intelligence.

    I just can’t see anything actionable about the different info. YMMD

  • Scott Phillips

    Motherfucker CAN catch a reversal

  • Kevin Mcdonald

    They are gonna tank this baby down… Auction imabalance…..come globex open.. assuming we open at these price levels
    papa is short….!
    min target 1850s

  • Scott Phillips

    I was more impressed by the Euro open thing. Picked it like a runny nose!

  • Scott Phillips

    Actually I just checked and my trading wins have outweighed my trading losses!

  • Billabong

    It’s up a lot more now … And shouldn’t be surprising with EOQ today and 401K statements going out tomorrow (sarc). YM has been following 25 EMA down since mid-August. Currently 16369. ES same way at 1946 and NQ 4265. For trend followers, this is the tough part watching price action for follow through or being forced to fold-up the tent and leave (R SL).

  • captainboom

    More buyers than sellers?

  • mugabe

    don’t you have a different system in the mix for diversification of strategy- mean reversion, breakout, etc?

  • Billabong

    Bullish Percent Indices for 12 sectors have continued to deteriorate since march. Currently, 2 sectors at 51% and the rest below. Only positive note is the mining sector, moving up from 0 to 10%. The summation indexes also reflect the continuing deterioration. The NYSE is -455 and negative since June. The NASDAQ is -602 (600 is the OS number in a normal market … 2008 saw -1300+) and negative since May.

  • mugabe

    ‘Only positive note is the mining sector, moving up from 0 to 10%. ‘

    very positive – lol

  • mugabe

    good for you- grinding it out in good times and bad

  • Skynard

    S from 91.5

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    symbol?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You and me both, mate.

  • RoastBeeph

    Short ES from 1891.5? Also, did you get any sleep last night?

  • Scott Phillips

    I have other systems but I stopped trading them to just trade this. Lifestyle choice.

  • Scott Phillips

    Its been very satisfying. Paradoxically I’m trading much better than last year when I was making much more money

  • Scott Phillips

    YES

  • saltwaterdog

    There does seem to be something to the concept of simply stopping when you feel like everything is in a groove. It certainly has been a good foreshadow of a turn down in the EqC on my end in the past. As much as I’d like a quantitative answer, it may be a matter of listening to intuition.

  • newbfxtrader

    Same numbers. Buyers have more conviction :)

  • hellbent

    more money…

  • newbfxtrader

    For sure. You see something on long side of crude? Daily looks like a bull flag but hasnt picked a direction yet.

  • RoastBeeph

    I believe Gartman said long Crude yesterday so beware! :)

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. Some should make a Gartman indicator….

  • RoastBeeph

    Yeah, no kidding. Hilarious he went severely bear on US equities yesterday, look at this huge rally this morning.

  • RoastBeeph

    Interesting. The headline on Marketwatch yesterday after US markets closed was about how September 30th is historically worst trading day of the year.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sept-30-is-historically-the-worst-day-of-the-year-for-stock-market-investors-2015-09-29?dist=beforebell

  • hellbent

    I think we broke Discus today

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What’s happening now?

  • hellbent

    I made a joke about 22 hundred and the box went red. Thought I’d been banned! All OK now I think..

  • saltwaterdog

    Related to this concept is the idea of changing campaign management to fit market type. Trimming the sails in (exiting at a 1.2R limit) vs letting them out and working on milking a multi-bar run. It seems to me that even partial progress in figuring this out would benefit any system immensely, but I’m admittedly nowhere near figuring it out. Certainly though there are periods where entries will go straight to 1R(ish), and that’s all that is there, and using the same CM used to move to BESL at 1.2 or whatever is again sub-optimal.

    voice on the shoulder is telling me I’m chasing fireflies and over-complicating it, but i remain intrigued by the idea.

  • Skynard

    1900 should contain price for a bit, short

  • Skynard

    Riding /PL right now:)

  • Scott Phillips

    I’ve actually played with this quite a lot.

    As a general proposition banking partial profits earlier benefits equity curve in bad periods

  • Scott Phillips

    OUTSTANDING DISCUSSION HERE TODAY PEOPLE!

  • Bernie

    Anyone looking at Gold at the moment? Still looks weak tho

  • Skynard

    Like clock work, you could base a system around specific times.

  • Bernie

    Im also short here but would take a loss above 1906. 1/2R

  • Skynard

    Looking for a back test of 1890 to go long again. Target SPX1970 (gap fill) where we will short the fuck out of it:)

  • Scott Phillips

    Yeah ive been thinking about that lately

  • saltwaterdog

    If you are interested I posted a table of results over 18k hourly EURUSD bars in yesterday’s post right before Mole put up the new one

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Summer is finally behind us – let’s bank some coin!

  • Skynard

    Part of my system to take profit.

  • Skynard

    /NG gap filled

  • Scott Phillips

    So if I have 10 trades I take today, on average 5 of those will lose, and cost me around 4.5R. On average 5 of those will win and get me 6.3R.

    Assuming all those trades are going to be losers is a bad assumption. Assuming all those trades are going to be winners is also bad.

    In fact, making assumptions of any sort increases uncertainty and error into the whole program, which is already filled to the brim with uncertainty and errors.

    The truth is that I am pedantic about keeping accurate trade spreadsheets. If I missed one day of calculating those levels, it would become unmanageable to fix them up very quickly. I’d hate that. Thats the real reason I don’t do this.

  • Scott Phillips

    If one system meets your financial and lifestyle needs, why do you need more?

  • mugabe

    to offset strategy risk … what happens if the one system is out of synch for a *long* time?
    they could both be daily systems, so wouldn’t upset lifestyle much.

  • Skynard

    /PL about to explode on a W3, watch open.

  • Skynard

    Dumping calls at open

  • Skynard

    Full short

  • Skynard

    Old Yeller on @ 1500

  • BKXtoZERO

    Can you hip me (again) what is “PL”. I see you mentioning that a lot. Thanks. and…………… you were right (again) pretty spiffy

  • phylum

    My pleasure :)

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey Skynard… replying to old post to keep low profile. I see you are getting your balls busted 10-9….. hang in there dude. Love watching you trade. I see what they are after and have some points etc. I wish I had 1/10 of your skills. I appreciate all your posts/calls and even elliott reasoning. I lightly use some ew still for framework only but getting very interested in momentum/divergences/zero Uvol/Dvol etc type stuff to try to get where you are. If you ever want to chat parkersmood2 at yahoo com hope you weather the rough period, love your posts. I don’t blindly follow anyone though FYI…. your posts are very telling for me to pull up charts and try to see what you are seeing. Giving clues on how you use volume on 5 minute charts etc…. all gold and I am paying close attention. Hang in there brother……