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Breach Attempt 2.0
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Breach Attempt 2.0

by The MoleMarch 4, 2009

UPDATE 9:41am EST: 250 comments over night – you guys are animals!

That’s a nice channel breach on the Spiders. Could be for real – I expect a little re-test maybe and then we’ll either go gang busters or it falls apart like my wife’s soufflé. I for one would appreciate some upside for a chnage – player needs a rip.

UPDATE 10:32am EST: Well, that didn’t last very long – we are below VWAP on the ES and the YM. NQ seems to be leading today again – keep an eye on that. The Yen tried to make a run for it and got swatted down again. Don’t write the bulls off just yet however – we have been in the 890 – 710 region for 12 trading hours now and unless we breach this level soon this might be accepted as a temporary market bottom.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anton

    the tape is not so bullish so far ..

  • JoeBear

    Yen getting crushed…

  • Anonymous

    Where is 7 minute abbs? That open looked downright horrible.

  • thunda72

    I think this might fall apart. I added some SPY puts at the open. I am using profits and starting to add long-term calls, though. Picked up CHK Jan 2010 calls for 0.40! Also beginning to buy UYG long-term calls on dips. Thanks for the DRYS tip… did very well at the open.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF going down.Erikd must like that. Plan your trade.Trade your plan. I think i will trade mark that .lol

  • katzo7

    FAZ fighting back, 77

  • NinjaPenguin

    XLF not looking healthy, either.

  • solo899

    Financials weak – gotta fade it.

  • lester

    good morning all. Trying to decide if I should close my shorts and go long or add to my shorts. I am 50% short now.

  • katzo7

    IMO, hold

  • Keirsten

    Here’s another link to share with my fellow rats on Short Squeezes. Forgot I had this one.

    http://www.highshortinterest.com/

  • alphahorn

    i've been adding myself

  • katzo7

    Alpha, FAZ about to cross MACD on 5 min. right at zero line

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Leadership, the financials, are leading down. If you guys want to play the upside more power to you, but I'm going to use it to add to my short positions.

    It's all about the time frames you trade in I guess.

  • lester

    nibbled on some FAZ Mar Calls

  • joe8888

    lets see if we get a 10 am lift off.

  • katzo7

    I agree.
    Erik says make a plan and trade that plain plan and plan to trade a plan when you plan a trade for the plan, I think.
    I may have misquoted him a bit here BUT . . . . .

  • alphahorn

    yeah, been diversifying heehee, adding SRS which was proportionally cheaper this am

  • geckoman

    Can we have a rally with GE skydiving without a parachute? GE has the potential to be a horizon event.

  • Vardoger

    Just covered my shorts into that dump. Picked up a small erx call position and taking a few days off to relax and clear the mind. Looking to start getting short again from 744-762.

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Iuse prophet chart mostly, but I started to use TOS chart along side the prophet because mole was kindly to write me an indicator that is not available for prophet.

    What I have noticed it that the readings for the indicators (not the one mole wrote) between the two are significantly different for the same underlying with the same time frame. Can this be??

  • alphahorn

    forgot to mention i really added to my DXO yesterday, almost at my magical #

  • katzo7

    Gap filled in FAZ, let's see if a real rally or fluff.

  • Squidman

    I think he may be a diver like me. Plan your dive and dive your plan is the golden rule underwater–very good analog to trading

  • standard_and_poor

    I think thats what he said. pretty close.

  • BalaB

    Looks like the SPYs are trying to stay outside the channel (posted above by Mole) but thus far, not much momo to the upside
    though NYSE AD: 5:1

  • Vardoger

    BTW, I have a trendline at ~715-717 on /es that should act as resistance and reject the first time if you are looking to unload shorts. Not saying we get there or break it, rather if you want to get out that should provide a pullback to cover FWIW.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Shorting more JNPR at 13.70 just like yesterday

  • Skates

    We CANNOT rally with GE taking a shit!

  • Erikd

    get ready….

  • http://alphahorntrading.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I’m ready!!!!!!1

  • katzo7

    FAZ @ 80.53

  • katzo7

    For what????
    LOL

  • Squidman

    Spent some time evaluating my entry on SRS yesterday, thanks to My Life's advice. Should have waited for the top of the channel. Also analyzed His and Mole's prodding not to buy calls on EFT's in this high volatility. “sell OTM puts instead” or “bull put spreads”. Paying the price this a.m. so lesson learned

  • standard_and_poor

    Shorted ES for day trade..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I hope not another smoke break lol

  • Anonymous

    So much of the ge weakness is in the inherent flaw of the existing cds market. hedge funds can take out fire insurance on a company and then burn it down to the ground.

    This was foreshadowed a month ago when people started following the options market. Huge put orders around 5 were being made when ge was at 11-12.

  • Anonymous

    To be fair Erik it could be a gap fill before a bounce…..hope not but its possible….stay on your toes.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    XLF filled the gap. good, we go down now. I drew fib on xlf and it tells me that's headed to 4.43 (fib 161.8 level). agree?

  • Vendrell

    Am ready…added more shorts this morning. All stops at 716 since yesterday morning.

  • standard_and_poor

    shorted xlf

  • lester

    back in 100% short on XLF. I am guessing we break 6.84 and plummet? That is what I am hoping for…

  • Guano

    believe it or not, GECC CDS is actually better today, currently 16.5 points up front plus 500 bps running, vs. a close of 20 p.u.f. yesterday

  • J-So

    XLF ticking closer and closer to $6.85. Tick…tick….tick…

    VIX is trying tobreak out of it's gap support also. If that happens AND we breach $6.85 we could crash today!

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriobr/33278132

  • BalaB

    I guess the only long trade that's profitable these days is buy at the close, sell at the open….

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    Will we see 6.6 or 6.3 today?

  • Skates

    Holyshit, 6.85 on XLF broken! Let's see if it stays below….

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    1095.50 on /NQ is support if we break that next stop is 1055.25

  • Anonymous

    Does anyone here feel like oil is starting to decouple from the broad indices….?

  • fadethetrend

    check it again.

  • amgrant

    Well, that depends what you are long. Long AAPL or USO has worked quite well.

  • katzo7

    Don't do anything more here.

  • stxinon

    No rally before all the bulls are sure trapped in 650 zone…..
    and that is one fundamental of bear markets…..
    Says ghost of trader from scull……..

    So expect a massive crash down which may take a S&P to 650 then stay in 630 to 740 range for next 4 months……
    killing most the bulls and option traders……

    because indicators can get oversold way more….
    They are just functions of market…..
    Market is independent of all of them….

    OK here goes simple logic…
    Maximum last bear rally was 19%
    so people expect less than that say 12%
    so Max 10% trading range……
    and at 60% safety …. Rally is not gradable at all…

    So we get no rally here and sell of more……

  • lester

    missed my chance to make some cash on GE. I had a limit order to buy Puts but I got cute and set limit 10 cents below market to try to catch a bounce. It never filled and I could have made 15% in 10 minutes. Well I threw in the towel and bought. Chasing is usually a mistake…

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve
  • katzo7

    Too much smart money around, when someone exposes himself (goes long), others wack his head off. A variation of wham bang thank you mam

  • lester

    cannot go more than 100%. Cash only no margin.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Alpha, thanks for the heads up on FAZ this a.m. I had placed an order to be filled at the open and got in in at $70.35. I've been in and out a few times over the past week (all for good profit fortunately) but I think I'll just hold this one overnight unless it trades below my entry point today.

  • standard_and_poor

    shorting more es on any pullbacks.

  • mtst

    Merde!!! any target for today? still 6.5?

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    How does Mole put it? Sell the rips? Seems to still be working. Added to SLB on today's rip. So far so good. Crossing fingers. Gap ups in downtrends are mighty magnetic.

  • lazydogbkk

    hearing from quite a trustworthy source that ge going the way of leh is imminant.

  • J-So

    It will fall. Everything will fall in this final period. Even gold. It will be a complete capitulation.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    “then stay in 630 to 740 range”

    If you're right, there's going to be some very nice swing trading money to take down there.

  • Erikd

    plan the trade – trade the plan

  • katzo7

    Better to be out of a stock and wish you were in than in a stock and wish you were out

  • fadethetrend

    let me guess Charlie “I need a drink” Gasparino.

  • katzo7

    Alpha, If I had my way, FAZ would tag around 80, and then begin it's next move up.

  • chronictown

    E-bear, what say you about the xlf breach of 7.85? what is your target/ thanks!

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    GE going BK? That's just crazy. There really is something other than a bank there. I could see the common in the low single digits, but if you think that they'll liquidate GE you're loco.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    I say Nay Nay!!!!!!!!!

  • alphahorn

    i hope not i can't control myself i keep adding :>) just bot another 1k

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    GE is too big to bail out.

  • anotherone

    As Deninger pointed out, companies like GE have huge pension liabilities as well as their businesses. Not saying that GE's going under, but it's something to consider.

  • roscoe_casita

    Awesome find, thank ya =)

  • alphahorn

    awesome!

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    I'm not going to waste our time arguing this point. GL with your trades.

  • katzo7

    I bought more FAZ , 78 and change

  • Best Choice
  • anotherone

    No argument from me. I'm not in GE and don't have an opinion one way or another. Just pointing out a fact. Best of luck to you as well.

  • Erikd

    XLF – staging nice and orderly..

  • Erikd

    first stop 6.00 – 650

  • lester

    before March OpEx

  • alphahorn

    Erik do you have a feel for where the VIX will go?

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Billion share day for GE?

  • de3600

    and AIG wasn't

  • willc

    What about your other indicators, FXY VIX USO TNX? They are not cooperating. Are you sticking with your plunge plan while only one out of your five indicators are working?

    We should have the big plunge today given the activities at close yesterday. However, the news from China changed the course. The question is if that news just delayed the unavoidable or actually change d the path by altering characteristics of the market.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    N
    E
    W

    P
    O
    S
    T

  • molecool

    Don't worry about the news, willc – just trade the charts. News only attempt to explain what already happened.

  • molecool

    I have to get bigger.

  • Best Choice
  • prozor7

    Erikd posted this nice chart in his last post:
    http://www.screencast.com/users/erikdbrucker/fo

  • Pone

    Erikd- In the race of SSO and XLF it looks like SSO is killing. SSO a better short?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    If they have learn anything from AIG then they won't bail out GE.

  • standard_and_poor

    Stopped out of xlf and ES with small losses, all part of the game.

  • mtst

    USD is sinking by now..

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Brother… I am back with you … ATM Mar calls – FAZ and SRS… with some VIX OTM Calls (lottery plays)

    Added some ERY and TYP hoping for massive plunge in energy and tech when the collapse happens

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    And the market almost always prices in upfront what happened.. The chain of events is

    – market moves to price an event
    – event happens
    – news shows up
    – suckers buy the news; smart folks who bought up ahead of news, sell the news.

  • katzo7

    Lester, Please do not get whipsawed in this. IMO, we are headed for a bottom in the 600reds. May be wrong but I am holding short positions over time

  • katzo7

    Lester, Please do not get whipsawed in this. IMO, we are headed for a bottom in the 600reds. May be wrong but I am holding short positions over time