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Brief Market Update
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Brief Market Update

by ScottMarch 12, 2014

Apologies, I had hoped to finish my post in the ongoing series on building trading systems, but I took quite a few trades today which need to be properly documented and reviewed before I stop for the day. Experience tells me that if I get behind I will quickly feel unmanageable and my trading performance will suffer. Sorry I have to put my own work first, and I want to make my post as complete as possible, omitting nothing.

Instead I have a quick point to make about the Stock Market. Yesterday we broke the high of the previous hammer candle, which should have attracted fresh buyers and seen us shooting to fresh highs. Instead we had total rejection of those highs and painted an Outside Period (down)/ Key Reversal or in IvanSpeak an OPd.

Typically this happens around 3 bars from a market turning point. Also, since the highest probability was for an upmove, when we have a low probability outcome you can expect a larger move. Therefore the highest probability is for some downside here

Looking at the weekly chart we are a low extreme on the VolStat (normalized ATR) which indicates an unsustainable low volatility and a potential turning point. The standard deviation of the recent weekly closes has already turned up, and this is a much more sensitive measure to an uptick in volatility. I would be very cautious here on swing positions, I think that we are near the upper zone of the channel and a significant retrace could be starting here.

Of course we remain in a strong and low volatility bull market so any downside is likely to be constrained by BTFD. If you are looking for a nice setup today this one is a beauty. Uptrend on daily weekly and monthly timeframes, a beautiful hammer candle in a strong uptrend, long on break of the high, stop at the lows.

Equally good is USDCHF, a daily shooting star candle after 2 days of sideways. Make sure you wait for a break of the lows

Scott Phillips

 

 


About The Author
Scott
  • Ronebadger

    Isn’t the top SPX chart an RTV=Sell? Didn’t we trigger an RTV-S on the Daily ES yesterday?

  • teslaman

    Update: Profit taken 16288. Expect more whipsaw.

    10 mins ago: OK Long at 16258. Stop at 16228 / quick profit target 16288.
    http://prntscr.com/30597z

    26 mins ago: Got stopped out ATH DJI at 16296. Sitting neutral. I see some support at 16254 on the 2hour panel. It’s going to be an interesting day!
    http://prntscr.com/3053sj

  • Kolt_P

    Step 3, higher close hasn’t occurred yet. The failure of rtvs would probably be better one.

  • Skynard

    Banking coin rats? ST looking for SPX gap to get filled..

  • evilasevildoes

    excellente

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    SMASHING posts here in the past few days. I have no idea why nobody is showing up for work. Well, their loss…

  • SirDagonet

    Scott said:

    The system goals for Heisenberg were:
    System to make 4R per week with no more than 3 losing trades in a row, taking on average 10 trades a week at .4R expectancy, with a 6R max drawdown at SQN greater than 3.2.

    Is that both time frames, trading 24/5? If so, is it plausible to assume similar trading results could be achieved for trading just US regular market hours? For just one of the time frames? Or would either/both of those restrictions violate the parameters of your design and backtesting?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (lurking)

  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves • a day ago
    ROSG-love it..ABIO maybe next
    OXGN..traders like Roth presentation…low float, could move fast…tight stop with this dog update- sold all in AH last night at 5.39
    $4.80
    Change +2.38 +98.34%
    Volume 15.64m
    Mar 12, 2014 11:36 a.m.
    Previous close $ 2.42

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there was a mention of tight stops on entry, and loose exits.
    I took a long yesterday based on a second candle and a chance of a breakout higher. (green circle)

    Before entering, I estimated where a shake out might occur.
    (Line 1 based on an intraday low)
    then I selected a stop I was willing to Risk (Line 2)
    sure enough ..this morning would have stopped me out.

    this trade may still not work, but I think this is the type of posting Cap’n was looking for.
    http://s10.postimg.org/oz40ngg1l/loose_stop.png

    -Gerb

  • Ronebadger

    Hello? Is this thing on?

  • Skidmarkalot

    Yup

  • https://twitter.com/#!/fresbee2010 fresbee

    great post scott. Would you by any chance have the volstat indicator for Ninja? Or will it be nearly same as StdDev of price closes?

  • teslaman

    After the opening whipsaw I have been focusing on the 10min DJI time frame.
    I have been short since 16358.8 with a stop at 16378.8. Take profit order not decided yet…

    It is a good time to see if short term patterns repeat.

    This is what I see now: http://prntscr.com/30846r

    Any thoughts much appreciated :)

  • Sean

    Not sure how you would know the probability of that the pattern repeating, so it just seems like a hope and prayer bet that your guess is right… see also “recency bias”…

  • teslaman

    Agreed, I don’t think that I can assign a probability outcome. When I tried the position I was targeting -30 points to take profit. The formation just got my eye and I think it is fun testing it. It’s not a matter of “i’m right or wrong” approach. 😉

  • Sean

    Hey, if you’ve got the money to burn, why not… but you know what might be more fun?

    Why don’t you give me half the money you were gonna bet then we’ll go out back, I’ll kick you in the nuts, and we’ll call it a day!

  • teslaman

    Haha ok! Honestly it is just one lot… $20 if it closes at a loss (16378) that is…

    edit: moved it to brake even. :)

  • Sean

    As long as you can compartmentalize this as gambling with a random outcome and not trading with an edge (no offense, but I have my doubts)… the problem is that you’ll likely make a few dollars on this bet as we close somewhere between VWAP and flat for the day, which reinforces your belief in your “skill” as a trader to spot patterns and seize opportunities, which gives you the confidence to make an even bigger bet next time, and that might hurt but probably not enough for you to stop looking for these patters… I don’t know you personally, but this is how a lot of people “learn” to trade and also why they fail… in the long run, it’s probably best not to reinforce negative tendencies if you’re serious about making this a profession (professional golfers never practice poor form)…

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Apologies? Dude if you need to take a break from your tour de force feel free. That makes perfect sense and better your brain is free and clear from any geeked out “unmanageable” feeling as you move forward with your altruistic endeavor to educate the Evil Spec community.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    I was really taken by surprise by the detail and depth of these posts and will have to spend a couple of hours (at least) per post to wrap my head around them. Then I may have a few stupid comments to make about them. So please don’t confuse a lack of comments for lack of interest

    I will read (really read–and think) one per weekend until I am done. I am dazed by the “smash” and will take a while to recover. First time Scott knocked somebody flat with words and not a fist! Not as fast but lasts longer!

  • teslaman

    No offense at all! Today I made only 2 trades….one trade in the morning which I posted exactly how I planned it.

    This last one was purely speculative and won’t play out. The last 20 minutes before the close changed everything.

  • Scott Phillips

    We are still in testing and nowhere near those results, although we have had periods where we exceeded them. The problem so far is that selecting the pairs to run the system is proving to have a mental/emotional component which is highly skilled and subject to good days, bad days and burnout. We are attempting to put rules, structure and automation into this which is a big and complicated job.

  • Scott Phillips

    Like I said in my earlier post – trading psychology is not a set n forget thing, it really is a one day at a time proposition. Fatigue and overwork *badly* affect performance in any field. The correct emotional state for everyone is slightly different. For some people it is a robot like emotionless state, for some (like me) it is a feeling of relaxed concentration, an abject lack of aversion falling short of obsession.

    My jobs as a trader
    1) Follow my rules
    2) Stop trading when my emotional state is suboptimal. I need to train a “muscle memory” of being an expert trader. I cannot do that if half the time I’m trading like an amateur.
    3) Document my trades and learn the lessons that are present in all trades winning and losing.
    4) Continue to work on my emotional and spiritual well-being. Trading is harsh on the psyche and a certain amount of kindness, lightness and self care is necessary

  • Scott Phillips

    Imagine you take this type of trade 100 times. Imagine only 5% of time you get saved from doing that, one trade in 20. Your win rate is now 62% instead of 52%

    At a 52% win rate you will eventually have 8 losers in a row. You cannot trade for high R values or you are going to blow up
    At 62% this is a very very unlikely proposition. With appropriate campaign management you can think about using higher R values.

    Since most of you are retail and trading with small account sizes this will allow you to compound up small accounts quickly.

  • Scott Phillips

    Ask Mole, he wrote it. You can approximate it by plotting a ATR(14) and then plotting a 100 period 1 standard deviation bollinger on it

  • ridingwaves

    must have some Street readers here…I posted this setup last week and removed it so not to eat into all your futures trading…
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12527111/1/small-cap-biotech-on-the-verge-of-a-breakout-abio.html

    time to go silent…cheers to all and thanks for the info Mole, Scott great posts I have now bookmarked….pura vida…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ivan’s always talking about an open mind.
    I don’t care about foreign markets, but my bull friend does.
    so I take a look at Russia.

    interesting this 3rd low (chart) is in sync with headlines.
    how convenient
    [RSX etf]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34931541120

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Bemused detachment is the state that works best for me. I find it strange that I can name my best mental state but cannot come up with a list of market beliefs per first post.

  • Scott Phillips

    You believe all kinds of stuff about markets, and I would encourage you to get them on paper before you start. Strong resistance to any kind of psychological work is an indicator that it needs to be done.

    Start with the easy stuff. Which indicators and TA stuff do you like/hate?

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Maybe I am getting hung up on the term believe, Do like BB (2,20 3,20) and like to check daily and weekly bars. RSI williams% and love the VIX futures in backwardation so close shorts if you got them.

    I don’t have resistance to knowing myself, study that with journal and all. Sometime I think … being truthful ,,, so long as I have a handle on risk one could go almost random, just never let green turn red (thats more risk mang, then market belief, then get out at 1% loss pyrimid up locking profits in on way with stops

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    But do have a handle on how I think and learn from mistakes and can give examples

  • Scott Phillips

    Flesh it out. More is better, it is inconceivable you couldnt find 40 or 50 things you know about markets. This process should take you a few days, you want to get everything you know about markets and trading down on paper so you can build a system that suits those things.

    Maybe you are getting hung up thinking the things you know about markets are objective facts, rather than just a certain rose colored glass to look through. There are very smart people who think technical analysis is about as valid as voodoo.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Yeah I will do this on the weekend. Things I THINK I know more likely. Also think anything I think I know is probably subjective. And not to court a ban but I, at times, think TA is voodoo and i use it as more a risk managment tool then a predict direction tool. But even as I type I can think of more stuff I think( ok fractal) are more then likely true about markets. Edit ok another lower low/ high and visa versa ok thats another. better write it down before i forget. probably more then i think now that i think about it.

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather

    epic post. will have to read more when it’s not 1:10am. I’ll just say, happy to see someone that agrees with me that we get more downside here… lol

  • phylum

    When does a setup become invalid and thus the order is cancelled?

  • Scott Phillips

    Ivan’s setups? At the end of the bar

  • phylum

    Ok, thanks

  • DollarChaser

    net lines are valid for 5 bars, are they not?

  • phylum

    So at that point we’d be stopped out anyway?

  • phylum

    That’s the default….

  • Scott Phillips

    The action yesterday changed things somewhat – the hammer candle is technically a bullish setup

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m still working away on my mega post series, and there isn’t much to say about the stock market, so no post today. There is a daily hammer candle on the es futures, I would personally lower stops on short trades to the daily high 1869 and technically it is a long setup on a breach. I think it’s a 50/50 call and if you don’t have a pressing need to trade take the day off

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey guys – I’m on a brief vacation as you know and just realized that the FTP uploads to my webserver are failing. I have contacted support and waiting for feedback. Will do my best to get it going before the open but it’s possible that the Zero feeds may not work for an hour or two.

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather

    true, I made that comment elsewhere last night… but my views & charts on the weekly level combined with the lower lows last few days have left me looking for another little correction here (not contemplating more unless some of my key lines are broke) … but that hammer candle sure upsets the cookie cart. on phone but charts can be found through my profile link.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Okay, they are working on it. I also sent you guys an email. Hope this gets fixed before the open.

  • mugabe

    ‘There are very smart people who think technical analysis is about as valid as voodoo.’ I must admit, over the last five years I’ve gone from from the totally novice view of thinking that TA gives some sort of predictive power to a huge amount of scepticism, epecially as far as patterns and indicators are concerned. They always seem to work better in retrospect rather than going forward. Which is fine as long as I trade according to those beliefs. Having said that, I recognise that there are plenty of people who trade profitably using these signals. Each to his own…

  • BobbyLow

    I think that TA as a whole is relative to the old saying “Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder”.

    We can see different things out of hundreds of technical indictors whether it be moving averages or other instruments. I believe the key is finding the technical indicators that make sense to you. They do not have to make sense to anyone else.

    Basically, all we are looking for is an edge that gives us a better chance than flipping a coin. In back testing or personal experience if it is found that when a given indicator is doing X that price does Y 60% of the time, this is an edge. It is not magic. It is also analogous to when I go outside on a hot summer day and dark low clouds appear. There becomes a higher probability that I’m going to get rained on now than before the clouds came. OTOH, there is no guarantee that it’ll rain as the clouds might just disappear as fast as they came. :)

  • Sean

    I think you (and others) might be missing the point and focusing a bit too much on the validity of this lens or that lens… the point is that the specifics of the lens doesn’t matter all that much. You just need a lens (any lens, even flipping a coin can work if properly managed) and apply it consistently with a clear head (which is why Scott has spent so much time on the mental aspect of trading) and then have campaign management rules that limits losses and creates winners that are multiples of the losers (not easy for many to grasp and probably why the next post is so much work). The specifics of the lens is only 10% or less of a profitable system, so everyone would get a much bigger ROI by improving their mental game and campaign management rules… but nobody wants to talk about those aspects because we all know that “feelings” don’t REALLY matter to trading, what really matters is a system that has setups that win 90% of the time, so we spend our time arguing about whose “lens” is bigger, better or more valid… the obvious problem then is, what the hell do you talk about on a blog? … I have some thoughts, but will leave it there for now since I have to go get ready to move.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • mugabe

    What I’m really saying is that all the wiggles / candlesticks on the chart / ascending wedge stuff is not for me. I agree that campaign management is key, when it’s allied to position sizing and trading a broad enough variety of asset classes so that you can find something that it’s sync with your system. And I do have my very simple market lenses which have a statistical edge, even though they’re extremely basic. I’m long past the stage of thinking that anyone has a system which has an uncanny predictive power.

  • Dyellowflash

    Out of all shorts. Waiting for a retracment to reload maybe in the next hr. Not keen to play both sides (up move) without the ZL. Only gotten the first fill on Dax 7 hrs ago, 2nd-4th all did not fill and I had to chase the game forward using the Dow, else would be double the gains :)

    http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1590132/us30-m5-international-capital-markets

  • Dyellowflash

    The Dow has dived 150 pts. At this point in time, the qn is – Is it going to be a down TD. If it is, there is 250 more pts to go. If it aint, its at least a 50-60% retracement by eod. If the ZL is active, I have at least 3-4 methods of knowing :)

  • Cravenmorehead2

    This is the best stuff on seen on this on this site EVER…..thanks

  • Sean

    Good thing the Zero went down on a day when nothing is happening 😉

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Now take all the concepts put forth so far and think about programming them into an automated trading system…not a trivial task by any means. There is SO much context

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seems the Zero services are working again – I still have to drill down on what the issue was. Again, apologies for any inconvenience.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ahem – have you seen our favorite posts page? I think there are a few jewels you may have missed…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Says it right in the alert!!

  • Cravenmorehead2

    No…I’ll check it out though…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Recency bias 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did any of you guys catch this hourly setup on the SPX today?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry – here’s the view. Shooting Star (no hammer) and Gap Open Real Body Sell. This was text book – the last fakeout before the hammer dropped (as in the expression -hehe).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry about that.. :-(

  • Dyellowflash

    Just went long, IDT this is a Down TD, stops is a couple pts below current’s low.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    STill think this is SOME of the best stuff I’ve seen here

  • Cravenmorehead2

    It gives more context as to when there is an edge than I have seen before….kind of like a veil is being lifted….looking behind the curtain.

  • Ronebadger

    COPPER! Bad harbinger … so it looks right now

  • https://twitter.com/#!/fresbee2010 fresbee

    Thanks again dude. It works but to match Mole values on one of the post, I had to do a small modification. I plot percent of ATR(14) and the standard deviation around the 100 SMA of the percent ATR.

    I must say it does help when combined with the entry setups. For example you want to know if the break of an inside day will lead to a fast pace move or will it keep flipping around? then combine that with the volstat to see how volatility looks and then take the break of the inside day.

    I have had a field day with Heisenberg setups even though Heisenberg has been quite today barring a 2 or 3 setups. I tool 7 setups based on entry setups of mole + volstat. I had 5 hit targets while 1 was stopped. Am not doing the campaign management part of it but I must congratulate both mole and scott for keeping “Edge” open to all of us.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    True….

  • https://twitter.com/#!/fresbee2010 fresbee

    There is another pattern I use and has a relatively high success rate with me. This is similar to the slopstat that Ken long suggests.

    If the 100 SMA is dipping sharply down (measure the slope) and if the close of a bar has exceeded 3 times the ATR above the 100 SMA while it is dipping, then watch for an inside bar or a hammer or bearish engulfing and go short for the 100 SMA. The logic here being the larger trend as reflected by the MA is lower but in the short term, the pair has defied the trend and “stretched” above its hourly TR. Normally that is a time to reverse the pair back to 100 SMA. For example: See AUDUSD. It stretched to .9102 but see the MA at 9020 was dipping down e very hour. It was a classical reversal trade at 9080 post a reversal. Anyways thought of sharing this. There is a little more to it but the gist is in there.

  • Sean

    No, not playing the markets on the hourly level at the moment… but did catch a couple of R on /ZW yesterday (looks like we may have transitioned into in a volatile bull market?, so looking for long CI setups and getting out after 2 or 3R per trade) and made ~1/2R on NZD/USD short as it fell below some support areas before the interest rate announcement yesterday, but talked myself out of a valid long trade and missed probably 4 or 5R on the move up, got sloppy…

  • Skynard

    Went long on gap fill for the time being.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Has Ivan ever automated his trading ?

  • Skynard

    A break of SPX 1850 will get me short again.

  • Sean

    So, I’m thinking that after a range like today the odds are that we get a small range tomorrow… and since the odds favor a smaller than average range, if we don’t get one then we are more likely to see a range that is much larger than average (as opposed to one that is simply average)… does that sound right? If so, what to do about it? … I’m thinking of a small (1/2R) SPY option strangle… thoughts?

  • Sean

    I’m assuming the next post will be massive… so this might come in handy… http://www.squirt.io/

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Two hammer failures YM 30min

  • Sean

    No worries, just an Evil Spectator at the moment… though I am curious about how I should understand it after a day like today… do the extreme readings in support of the move mean the higher probability outcome is for lower lows in the days to come and we should watch the hourly & daily Zero for positive divergences?

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather

    ahhh scrumptious.

    and now we pause to watch the best advice ever given on the interwebs since the 2009 bottom, video originally found in 2010 :)

    http://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4

  • newbfxtrader

    Wheres the burn dance kid fellow?

  • RUFCrazy2

    And as if on Cue, the market tanks. Nothing new to see here, move along…

  • newbfxtrader

    Not a good day for a long. Doesnt even touch VWAP.

  • Dyellowflash

    Went long from about 1852-42, unload then reload then unload and reload, hedging and unhedging x 5-6 times. F***. For these 320 bucks, I might be better off spending the time sleeping. Now around 47.5, I am clearing house except for a couple of contracts and going to zzz…

  • Skynard

    Fake and bake 1850 backtest.

  • Scott Phillips

    Do yourself a favor and think about ONE SINGLE property of markets that you can explain to anyone in 10 words or less. Base your system around that. Pullbacks in an uptrend, fading breakouts in low volatility markets, trading breakouts, volatility breakouts, etc. Think about obvious properties of markets for the type of market you are looking to trade. That way you inherently avoid many of the big problems with backtesting, since you won’t be doing as much of it.

    Van Tharp told me to “keep it simple on entries and get as fancy as you like on exits”

    I had someone from here contact me wanting advice about systems, he “could explain if he had an hour, maybe”. Those types of complicated things are what I used to build. Objectively, in every way systems built around known properties of markets perform much better in every respect.

  • Scott Phillips

    Mole has been posting great stuff for years. I consider him the finest blogger on the internet.

  • Scott Phillips

    There is a whole world of “bullshit TA” – virtually anything with predictive claims. Think analogs, things of that nature.

    The *good* TA is not about predicting the future, it is about listening to the story that price is telling, rather than making your own up.

  • Scott Phillips

    Exactly so! ANY lens will work. Mole’s 25/100 is perfectly fine, and it comes with the advantage that he posts setups for it.

  • Scott Phillips

    I was talking with Van asking him about market beliefs, my question was “what about beliefs that are demonstrably false and baseless? – things like sunspots, moon phases etc” His response was that one of the most useless conversations we can have is about whether a market belief is valid. Nobody convinces anybody, it just goes around and around forever. What you believe is what you believe.

    Example. Personally I tested a whole bunch of standard momo indicators. I empirically proved they were baseless and edgeless. If I showed you the data on your favorite indicator you wouldn’t believe me.

  • Dyellowflash

    I am expecting the mkt to retrace up to at least around 52, so I am setting the last contract to auto TP at that range.

  • Scott Phillips

    I like Ken’s slopestat and stretchstat framework and use them both in system design.

  • Kudos

    S&P/ES at 25 day. VIX closed as now now at 16.12 above upper BB (15.82)

  • Cravenmorehead2

    GC….i H&S….1375 seems to be the ceiling….if it pops through should start rolling again

  • Scott Phillips

    He’s had several goes at it but his systems are all incredibly complicated (to go with his psyche – Ivan is incredibly smart). It is also not necessary for him as Ivan is *extremely* good in the mechanics of trading, placing orders, never making mistakes, taking every setup precisely according to his rules. In that respect he is astonishingly good. Programmers have trouble keeping up with him. Mole was able to automate the core of his setups (though not exactly, we took some shortcuts and made a couple of what I think are genuine improvements to definitions), which we use in Heisenberg as a “toolkit” of entries.

    I maintain (Ivan disagrees) that the performance of his setups is mostly a function of market phase and the candle pattern is a secondary edge. There are arguments both ways and you can build highly effective systems using his patterns. I have a system in testing now using just one of his patterns, filtered to take in very very specific trending conditions.

  • Sean

    It crossed a monthly NBL this week at 1361.8, very good sign if it can hold that till month end… I’ve been long (via GLD options) since it breached the 200d sma and just rolled my Mar 130 calls into Apr 135 calls with a stop at b/e (currently ~130 on GLD)… next area of resistance looks to be around 1475.

  • aiki

    They are jewels for sure and worth going back into time and again – great writing: lucid, no bullshit, and very useful.

  • Cravenmorehead2
  • Sean

    Or 1700+ if you use close only… since that suits me better I think I’ll refer to that one :-)

  • Cravenmorehead2

    I find the FO pattern to be the most consistent combined with a tangent value off the moving average to show an excessive angle of price movement. I don’t find the IP to have any edge over throwing darts and managing a trade. I like using the FO combined with linear regression crossovers/ BB touches….just haven’t gotten the coding right yet. The work required just gets overwhelming for me. It’s difficult to program “context”

  • Sean

    Market contract rolled today, so I’m watching the yen pairs this evening… are any of them turned on for Heisenberg?

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Nice

  • Sentiment Updates

    Interesting thing conceptually…If something like the 1987 crash happened in the same fashion over the next few weeks, anyone who bought around this time in early 2013 (just one year ago!) would still be up 5%. Just goes to show the kind of uphill battle the bears are have to reverse this thing long term.

  • Scott Phillips

    Both patterns have a similar edge used in the right place. FO would be better overall, and FO with a shooting star candle as the trigger better again. None of Ivan’s patterns rise above the mediocre when used indiscriminately. That being said, you can crank out very good results with mediocre edges traded well.

    Far better is to look for the CONTEXT of the FO like you are doing. Something like bollinger touches with a higher timeframe MA or linreg filter you like.

  • Scott Phillips

    Your thinking could not possibly be more retarded

  • SilverEagle

    CL really coiling up in that sym triangle on 15 minute all day. At the 50% retracement from hi/lo of pretty big trend starting on 1/9

  • Scott Phillips

    How could this sort of mental masturbation contain any information that might be used to help your trading? At best it is useless noise drowning out the signal at worst it starts the insidious process of anchoring you to a fixed view

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    S&P 100
    http://s2.postimg.org/qw2y09nk9/drop_out.png

    I’m looking forward to that 3rd installment.

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather

    Onward, to 840 ! :)

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I just wish the Bullish Percent would make up it’s mind.

    been quivering for days.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p61511725933

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather

    I think someone explained BPSPX to me once (the actual mathematical derivatives of time & price used to perform the calc) .. and I went… hmmmmm… nah… I’ve seen people cite it before and it looks all prophetic n stuff… but I’m a simple man and I like time & price, at least for now. All the rest is noise … at least for now …

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather

    Also, a GEFMZBT (good enough for me ZBT) fired back beginning of february. i call it that, because it came within a hair of meeting the criteria (like, didn’t drop below .40, only got to .405) … chart link (not my work): http://stockcharts.com/public/1130414/chartbook/230315073;

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    next time it gets in the 20 range, I’m all in.
    pass it to my grand-kids, or corzine whichever comes first.

    meanwhile..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHQ_aTjXObs

  • http://endofbull.blogspot.com/ Genuine Pleather

    good stuff :)

  • Scott Phillips

    NEW POST – AND I BELIEVE IT IS THE BEST ONE YET