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Tape Banging
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Tape Banging

by The MoleMay 11, 2010

Most of the time writing about the market is fun for me – I look across my ten trading screens and there is always something interesting to bring to your attention. Then there are days like today where it’s a bit of a chore. I’m trying hard as I owe it to you guys but if it was just for me in the evil lair I’d probably take this day off.

Reason being? What I’m seeing today is nothing but good ole’ tape banging. The /ES is melting higher and higher despite extreme readings on all my short term measures. And not since just now – since about 1156 – twelve handles ago. It’s nothing but one systematic stop run and it’s happening without participation. Heck, I had to magnify the Zero Lite chart just so we could see if there’s a signal. The boyz are at it again – nothing is ever learned and last Thursday is now long forgotten.

Unfortunately for the bears there is an ominous sign on the horizon:

That’s right – unless the floor gives way in the next two hours we are looking at a bonafide VIX buy signal here. Today’s close below yesterday’s would give us final confirmation. Now, this does not mean Soylent Blue and Orange (see yesterday’s post) are dead but the odds are now slowly shifting towards Soylent Green.

Why do I still give Blue and Orange any probability? Not to cover my ass – no – but because of the nature of today’s advance. I was bitching and complaining about this stop run in my intro as it’s annoying as hell when price completely ignores technical analysis that is usually 90% spot on. But if I ignore my emotions for a second it becomes clear that tape banging events like this are unsustainable and will incur a correction.

Oh yeah – and then there is this chart. Equity traders are saying ‘oooh yeah’ – meanwhile copper is saying the opposite. It’s not a huge drop but it’s a non-confirmation.

As long as 1178 (again, see yesterday’s post) is not taken out Orange and Blue still stand a very reasonable chance. But that VIX buy signal is making me very nervous. In the past year all occurances during which we saw contradicting indicators it wound up favoring the bulls. If this is truly Primary {3} then the tape needs to prove it to us. Although eternal hope swells high right after bear market corrections the down trend needs to establish itself with some veracity now – if we keep bumbling about like in the past thirteen months it will only lead to more sustained moves up – manipulated or not. That thought applies to Soylent Blue in particular – an Intermediate (3) of Primary {3} should basically completely anihilate any bulls. What we are seeing today is ‘business as usual’ and a VIX buy signal. Major moves down happen despite such readings – given – but it’s got to happen quite soon. Again, 1178 is where the odds start to shift – even though Soylent Blue technically permits a retracement to very near the very top.

I am hanging on to my long term puts unless the market tells me otherwise. I am comfortable with my short exposure here and will only add short positions if we make new highs for the year.

Hope this helps navigate today’s gyrations. I will keep digging for more evidence and report back.

UPDATE 2:40pm EDT: Here is a chart I wish I had looked at two hours ago:

Quite interesting and more evidence that tape banging was in the works. Sorry guys – I can’t look at everything at the same time – blogging does take its toll in regards to trading and monitoring. Which is why I present all my charts here on a continuous basis. If we all follow them we can alert each other for the benefit of the entire community.

UPDATE 3:16pm EDT: Things are getting really interesting now. Gold just popped big time to new all time highs:

The gold bugs are basically calling the EU’s and ECB’s bluff. Nice…

UPDATE 4:02pm EDT: Mr. VIX closed at 28.17 which gives us an official bonafide VIX buy signal as this is the confirmation signal needed according to my textbook.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    VIX buy signal is in, I get it, but it’s kinda suspect. Not confirmed by VXX or VXZ Wouldn’t it be nice if it was?!?

  • AlohaBear

    ten yr nearing resistance

  • http://nummyfx.blogspot.com nummy

    saw that at 1:47 mole .. those bots dumped the day's move

  • http://nummyfx.blogspot.com nummy

    saw that at 1:47 mole .. those bots dumped the day's move

  • Tronacate

    I loaded up on puts just about at the top today……we'll see

  • nugie

    Thanks for the Post Mole. Looks like the bulltards have hit their head on the roof for now.

  • bananaben

    SPX down 12 handles, DOW negative but the Russell is still up there. What gives?

  • Reeves5333

    Thanks Mole, good info as usual! As I type this, it looks like the bears may have a chance at killing off the VIX buy signal….1 1/2 hours to go…

  • roscoe_casita

    O : it needs to close the gap to 31.85

  • roscoe_casita

    aye, vix just performed a bullish cross on EMA 39/89, same with bearish cross on $TICK.

    $UVOL is droping, $DVOL is up and away,

  • Tronacate

    This is getting interesting……

  • amokta

    also djt still up?

  • amokta

    prime-minister gordon brown (uk) has just resigned
    ok, perhaps we will get a river island reversal, or a late day ramp??

  • Tronacate

    When the shit hits the fan…….people will be happy they were stopped out on thursday…….blessing in disguise

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We need 28.85 on Mr. VIX for the buy signal to be extinguished like a dirty weed. Come on bears – you can do it! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, we need 28.85 – we can do it!!

  • nugie

    Same thing happened last time on the run up. They continue to favor the high betas.

  • funkypenguin

    Mole – Like that you magnified zero to see what was going on today. Any chance you can make this an option on super quiet days like this – ideally a button on the site or the like

  • skynard

    Out short @ 1158 SPX

  • betaal

    bears cant beat machines

  • Tronacate

    Volume was pathetic on those candles on the reversal here……don't believe it

  • Tronacate

    GLD going beserk

  • rg64

    What about Dr Copper?

  • Tronacate

    AZO would have been a sweet short

  • bananaben

    You might regret getting out too early like that. Amazing how scared bears are.

  • amokta

    finally a move down!

  • amokta

    silver too

  • Tronacate

    Don't have the data…..anybody?

  • Tronacate

    Be nice to finish at lod……be a little more bear marketish of a finish

  • Tronacate

    GLD 120plus

  • n2thezonez

    Tape is a little jumpy out there, perhaps I'll attach a strobe light to my monitor to accent the action

  • momac

    Silver at $19

  • FranceHasTheBomb

    Check out the gold miners (gdx / gdxj) and silver (slv).

  • Reeves5333

    VIX getting REAL close…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We have 45 minutes…

  • momac

    I wonder why everyone is buying gold and silver, ohhh, and here's a diamond miner that's been shooting up also. HWD I don't know any other diamond miners so I don't know if it's the same among all of them like the gold and silver plays.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Still down – so far so good.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Schwingggg!!!

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Mole FYI, it looks like you have another head case defecating over in the old post.

  • gsavli

    now, there's a nice thought.

  • Tronacate

    Another weak ass hammer candle

  • Tronacate

    Bears need to close the deal right now…..

  • gsavli

    it's now or abort.

    MACD on 5min NQ crossing over. RSI issues a buy signal (higher low).
    bad stuff.

  • marcopolo101520

    gotta go, so I will not see the end of the day trading but my feel is that we might close just enough (1162-1163) to get easily over 1165 tomorrow, and maybe fly toward 1175-1180 in the next two sessions. bears are scared and bulls just need to be flagged a bit of green (contrarian to red! hahaha) in front of their eyes, still dippers….hoping to strike it rich…

  • Tronacate

    yup

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Annoying is more applicable.

  • Tronacate

    Two nice dist candles on the NQ

  • amokta

    my near-term target for close today is 1150, any chance?

  • http://nummyfx.blogspot.com nummy

    and the VIX buy sig confirms .. I would not ignore this one, just my 2c

  • amokta

    was not to be. anyway, a down day nonetheless

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not ignoring it at all – might spell trouble.

  • elliott_surfs

    dumb question – VIX buy sig for the market, or buy sig for the VIX.

  • gsavli

    market

  • gsavli

    don't know what to think of this now.

    we have market selling into eod and in ah
    and we also have vix buy + some other stuff…

  • Tronacate

    Me either……

  • newbear

    I've learned to be always paranoid keeps me from blowing it.

  • Tronacate

    Nice AM gap down for an island reversal would make for interesting action

  • BobbyLow

    As measured by an 8 hour work day (and of course my work day is much longer than that), I earned $4.75 per hour today.

    I could have earned more than that as a Wall Mart Greeter but I'm much too grumpy.

    So let's see what kind of BS that Mr. Market has in store for us tomorrow. The “Better than expected” mantra has kind of wore itself out. Oh I know, the IMF will come up with a plan to provide 750 Trillion, Billion Euro's to help shore up member finances.

    Whatever.

    I'll be back to work tomorrow. :)

  • fa_q

    Posted this last night:
    “1157/1938/688
    Covering at 1144/1919/679.5
    There's more to be had but won't be around a computer tomorrow and that's simply too easy of a trade. God it's nice to have a normal market again. Looking to reshort around 1170 next week maybe. Will short there whether or not you hear from me. That one will be a short and hold.”

    Did not think 1170 would come today. High today: 1170.48. Goddamit I love when the market is trading properly!!! Thought this would come next week but today was pretty sweet. I got filled at 1168.25. Could have been better but oh well – already 17 pts in the money. Will be holding this at least tomorrow. Will be in the air tomorrow from NYC to LAX but will try to post a close if I close but not likely. I'd like to hold at least half through the end of the week but we'll see. Never a shame in taking profits. I'm aiming for 1135 and will probably put a half-fill there (SPX 1135 and fills at whatever ES prints at that moment) since I will be out of pocket. Good luck.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Alright – I need to step out and smell the roses for a while – was an exhausting session. I'll be in touch later – cheers.

  • cramar

    Very good day. Vindication for Technical Analysis. The market has done exactly what I figured it would. I took a bullish position and bought SSO on Friday at 37.83 and sold at 41.75 today. Then switched to buying TZA at 6.00 (missed FAZ & SRS by pennies). All based on pure TA. Wish it would work like this all the time. Then we would all be as good as those Goldman Sacks traders!

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Looks like a distribution day was avoided for most of the indices.

  • ds2

    Was there a VIX buy signal on 1/27/10? Looks like it to me but the market didn't go up for awhile. Is that expected?

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Well at least it's not trouble with a capital t! Anyway, I thought the vix signal played out over a weekly (or a bit longer) time frame. Should I bunch my panties about it if I have a shorter time frame? Also glad to know I am not the only one confused by the vix signal — my god some may be more confused then me. The last step (as wriiten) really makes it seem that a close ABOVE yesterdays close (28.84) would trigger a sell. I understand that is not the case… it would be a failed buy signal. And yes I know today we got a buy signal and that it's for equities not the vix. I thought your exposition of the vix signal is clear except for the last rule which is prone to being misinterprated. At least IMO.

    BTW I used to think you were somewhat short tempered… now I think you have the patience of a saint.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    Mole, I don't understand why you keep calling the VIX signal. It did fall in the BBs in Jan 2010 too. Market still sold off. VIX outside gives a sure market signal but inside doesnt automatically give buy.

  • Kudos

    I see the vix buy signal but I'm not acting on it till we breach 1173. I will start posting what I see on a chart sooner or later since I guess now that I've started posting on this blog I cant stop. We had a nice perfect bounce of the S&P to the 50 day and immediately retreated. I trade intraday usually, mostly take trades with a few day time horizon to a few weeks but in this market the type of moves I trade happen within the day, at least this past week. I see copper – which I pointing out on this blog right around the right shoulder at 1209 as a indicator not to buy the last move on equities – not buying this rally. I see gold at all time highs, I see the euro not having any of this rally in equities and I say to myself I'm not buying this rally until it breaks 1173. Good luck trading.

    I think the best trade right now is to be short the ES and long some gold miners or the UGL (2x Gold). Tweek the hedge to your convictions. I have a variation of this right now.

  • psycho_puppies

    He said “it might spell trouble” not an automatic buy. Perhaps we should all keep in mind that no indicator is perfect or this would be easy.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ?? I have not 'kept calling it' – the possibility keeps popping on our screen and today was the first time in a long while it has been confirmed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The rules state that a move comes 'within a week'.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm only short tempered when it comes to hypocrites and the occasional troll. I never slammed a noob for not knowing anything – on the contrary, I do my best to educate and to share knowledge.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “I see the vix buy signal but I'm not acting on it till we breach 1173.”

    Very reasonable approach.

  • Kudos

    Mole, would a close above yesterdays close in the next week negate the signal? I dont think pointing out things and possibilities is “keeping calling it”. Oh and thanks for banning that Johnny dude, he is a total d-bag. I knew he was worthless from the second he started posting and I'm glad to see him gone forever if it works out that way.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Mole, I don't understand why you keep calling the VIX signal.”

    http://screencast.com/t/ODJhYWQ5MD

    Docendo discimus.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Great post Mole. Thanks. :-)

    Disturbing about the Vix buy signal. Re you sure it is still valid after so long outside the BBs last week?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole,

    That's a hell impressive drum solo by that Tony Royster kid.

    Mitch Mitchell is my favorite drummer. He may not have been the best, but he was the best fit for Hendrix in my opinion. “Fluid” is a descriptor that comes to mind. Check out “Third Stone From the Sun.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUg7xl4kKUw

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have never encountered such a simple concept that confuses so many people. Wow…

    Not a criticism of you, SJ – I just think it's such a trivial concept and I'm almost tempted to not ever bring up again as so few seem to understand the rules I keep posting…

    But then, after some consideration it's suddenly crystal clear to me. I think you guys understand the rules – what I believe is that many of you don't WANT to believe it. Guys – we need to trade the tape that IS, not the tape that we WANT. The latter leads to losses in a hurry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They don't make music like that anymore… our generation just completely sucks… (sigh).

  • psycho_puppies

    Perhaps the signal is telling us to buy in a week after the crash.;)

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    I think the masses may be confused by the last time we had a $VIX buy signal (around Jan. 26th). The tape was at 1090ish on the day of the confirmed signal. It shot down to 1070, then up to 1110, then down to the 1040s, then up to 1220. It took about 13 trading days for prices to reach what they were at when the buy signal was triggered. But … it did work.

    I think people are taking it to mean a “the tape is imminently exploding upwards” signal, which it is not.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    I would love to hear your thoughts in regards to this chart (by “humblestudent” i.e. not my chart):

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Qe2EUehGkjM/S-mOOCV59

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good point mate – absolutely agree. But I thought my post made that clear – otherwise why would I still humor Soylent Green and Blue?

  • skynard

    Looks like ES tested support and we may get that equities signal after all. That was an interesting move.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, do you know who sucks?

    Steve Vai. Even though Vai probably has more technical proficiency than Hendrix, Vai's music has no soul. Let's compare.

    First, listen to Vai's “Tender Surrender” (which is a rip off of Hendrix' “Villanova Junction”):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw74sDWPH7U

    Second, listen to Hendrix play “Improvisation” and “Villanova Junction” at Woodstock:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtZ76Ec8fdI

    Third, listen to Hendrix play “Dolly Dagger” and “Villanova Junction” at Maui:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8HAqEmZSH4

  • arkhamb

    What about this AH futures drop?!

    Head fake?

  • Turps

    I think you nailed it right there Mole

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    You're right. No time limit. Thanks for pointing that out Mole.

    That is not good. These buy signals have been very reliable for quite a while now.

  • arkhamb

    Not often we get a 5-7 point drop in ES this early in the evening.

  • n2thezonez

    Bulls should hope it is a head fake, as a gap down would paint a potential island reversal. It is a possibility, as Europe seems to be quite unstable.

    If a gap down happens, IMO, it will be very important that bulls close the gap within the day. That doesn't mean that a stick save couldn't occur in any case, we've seen plenty of that. Regardless of that potential outcome, a down gap tomorrow that doesn't get filled would be a rather bearish technical development.

  • raised_by_wolves

    /ES 10 d 1m with ThinkScripter's Chart Period VWAP shows a move below VWAP followed by an ongoing retest that has been clinging to it. Things look under control to me. If there were a move below the low, things might start to get interesting. As it is, I'm . . . [yawning] . . . going to take a nap.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Great move in Gold today! The approx. $1300 intermediate-term price target still stands.

  • yudhisthira

    Russell 2000 hit 61.8 retrace today.
    http://screencast.com/t/MDIyNzBmYz
    Buying more TZA until vix buy confirms.

  • arkhamb

    Thanks for the replies

  • Cerebro82

    “In antiquity those that excelled in warfare first made themselves unconquerable in order to await [the moment when] the enemy could be conquered. Being unconquerable lies with yourself; being conquerable lies with the enemy. Thus one who excels in warfare is able to make himself unconquerable, but cannot necessarily cause the enemy to be conquerable. Thus it is said a strategy can be known but yet not possible to implement…… One who cannot be victorious assumes a defensive posture; one can be victorious attacks. In these circumstances by assuming a defensive posture, strength will be more than adequate; whereas in offensive actions it would be inadequate.” -Sun Tzu

    Patience my friends. I'm personally being defensive until confirmation.

  • Cerebro82

    Uncertainty brings wild swings. Look at today for example. This morning the futures were down substantially, only to see the market power it's way green, then reverse. Bear moves are hard to trade because fear is high and stop outs happen for both bears and bulls alike. No one wants to let losses accumulate, so they either cover or buy without order.

  • Tronacate

    I think Neal Schon is one of the most under-rated guitarists around. And he still plays great…….played with Clapton with Derek and the Dominos at Berkeley and Santana at the age of 15.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRIsq8B5CF0

  • Long_John_Silver

    Technical proficiency … Well, Hendrix re-invents the electric guitar and turns it into something else – a primordial beast, a roaring volcano, an orchestra of synthesizers, the voice of some ungodly being, or maybe a godly being .. in '1983,' it becomes time itself –

    Thanks for the link. Needed to hear this, the most 'psychedelic' cut from the first album … radical then, radical now

    From the evidence Hendrix had technical proficiency to an extraordinary degree – if you watch him play, he's hardly working, it's so completely absorbed and second nature .. it's part of his body that he doesn't have to think about consciously – it just does whatever he wants.

    That's technique.

    But after all, the only thing that matters is what the music *says* – what it *means* – even though we can't define those terms.

    Hendrix expands what music can even do –

    On the list of all those fallen from the 60's generation – a list of geniuses, Coltrane, Morrison, Dylan, Janis, Brian Jones, just for starters – Jimi's loss is the greatest.

    We can't begin to imagine where he'd be today.

    Thanks for posting this. LJS

  • alessiov

    not sure, but i think u might like this. still trading copper/gold?

    http://www.justin.tv/fmshades#r=BzsgoHo~

  • alessiov

    totally agree

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    lost your shirt in a card game in which you never had a chance? google rory gallagher walk on hot cools madrid. if you don't know this guy you should… and sorry for not including a link.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    sorry hot coals

  • EvilTrader

    you are right.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    oh I know, was just pulling your leg. just remember some of us maybe stupid! j/k or not…nah i'm kidding.. or am I?

  • Dutch

    This pure drum solo trumps all others…
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHDjGtj18X0&feat

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    is it true that EWI will be paying people to subscribe?

  • convictscott

    It seems to me that this is an obvious and very defensible place for an es short. Its got all kind of technical evidence going for it… Right down to the decreased range to the upside and doji candle.

    There is something at the back of my subconscious screaming “its too obvious” I don't know what it is, perhaps its the too-neat moving average bracketing, or the lack of time-proportionality (markets that give us an easy time usually fuck us around with a hard time afterwards)

    After covering shorts at the close of the fuck off down day, I have a stop order to get short again at the break of the daily lows 1140.25.

    But keeping in mind the vix potential buy, I postulate the following.

    IF the es breaks the daily low but doesnt go down like a p3 impulsive wave, the obvious place for shorts to have their stops is todays doji high at 1169.25

    How about a reverse and go long order to take advantage of the short covering that should ensue if it doesnt work out as planned?

    I'm going to be short as a motherfucker on break of the daily lows, but if the bears cant close it out this time, I sure do want to be long.

  • skynard

    If 1142.25 is taken out, short that MF. ES back tested tonight and it held.

  • Kudos

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy59UgiFo0s&feat

    Unfortunately its only audio. Still inspirational none-the-less

  • Kudos

    So if there is one thing I've learned by just following the news and doing lots of research is that if you think anything is that important, you wind up chasing the tape you want than the tape that is there. And loosing lots of money, a lesson that will take many time to learn. That being said, this is very interesting when combined with the fact that U.K CDS spreads were one of the only sovereign spreads to widen today, even if it was a tiny move up, the rest fell.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europ
    Aparently the U.K. is refusing to participate in the giant european bailout, and the EU is telling them that they are on their own if they need help. Yes they have a printing press, but still adds a little to global financial stability.

    Just follow the tape that is there, and maybe we can have a catalyst for us bears. I hope I wake up saying thank you UK. Good night.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    I saw that chart. It looks similar with 1220 being the pivot point. My doubts this time is that they are going to play the opposite tape of what we saw then in 2008 and zoom past 1220. Think about it.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    Ok, Thanks. I am cautious, very very.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    Two possibilities, I suppose:

    1. This is the “natural price action” of a bailout situation. I.e. a pattern that can be recognized and used for future reference.
    2. This was planned in advance, somehow, and was designed to screw the small number of bears who could recognize it.

    We'll find out in the next week, one way or the other.

  • standard_and_poor

    Increased longs on today's morning lows, waiting for slim chance of more gap fill to increase longs to 100% – now 80% long and still expecting new highs into next year.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    They won't participate in the bail outs. My guess is the conservatives here will push the conservatives there not to.

  • standard_and_poor

    Today is Tuesday Two-fer.
    Here's a undeservedly underplayed and overlooked pre-CSNY band.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBQ2HbowaZo&feat
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlEfwZ1nGJE&feat
    Enjoy brothers!

  • ricebowl

    As Prechter always says, we're experiencing deflation.

  • Gold_Gerb

    For all those traders suffering.
    I wanted to say “you shouldn't suffer this way”.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAwIpOnzN8M
    [it's a catchy tune]

  • chronographics

    No trader on this site should be suffering, aside from Moles recommendations they were alerted to Gold breaking out Sterling going Down and of course my current favorite Selling the EURO. If what they are trading is too hard to call go for something which is behaving itself technically….

  • bananaben

    Very few bulltards are of this view – even BlackRock predicts a 1000 S&P by the end of the year. If this does turn out to be the case, then I will be in substantially in gold and swear off this joke of a market forever.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Take someone like Stevie Ray Vaughn. I like him better than Steve Vai. Instead of ripping off lesser known Hendrix songs and calling them his own, Vaughn covered Hendrix songs, and he covered them extremely well. Vaughn's performance of “Third Stone From the Sun” is great. Of course, Vaughn was capable of creating music like that himself.

  • standard_and_poor

    It doesn't surprise me, that's the nature of wave 3 unfortunately. Good to here from you Bananaben. Enjoy the music brother.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Although Bob Dylan didn't die, he did fall. I don't know if it was more the fault of the motorcycle accident or our society. Maybe Dylan had something to say during the 60s because there was a generation that was listening, really listening. But then something killed that collective cultural creative feedback loop. Everyone sold out and everything returned to the status quo. If Hendrix hadn't died, I wonder if he would have fallen like Dylan? If anyone could have continued to thrive creatively in this anti-creative world into which I've been born, it would be Hendrix, wouldn't it?

    Now, if 6 turned out to be 9,
    I don't mind, I don't mind.
    If all the hippies cut off their hair,
    I don't care, I don't care.
    Dig, 'cos I got my own world to live through
    And I ain't gonna copy you.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PczW76rpTbM

  • raised_by_wolves

    No suffering here. 50% profit last week. No trade yet this week.

    You're not still short with an oversized position, are you?

  • AudioTactics

    Yeah, Stevie was a amazing. I saw him perform live in NYC on the pier. I'll never forget that show.

    And I agree about Steve Vai…

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Bob the Horse

    We'll see what happens, personally Mole I believe this mkt is going higher. These bid impulsive waves down tend to occur within the context of falling GDP. Then there is just no support for a market as the earnings base is shrinking and we can all panic over whether stimulus is enough, etc. But the opposite is true right now. GDP is going up and companies are beating numbers – doesn't make it impossible we go lower but it sure reduces the odds.

    The other scenario is a PE multiple collapse, as per 2000. But this happens from a point of high multiples. On Friday, the european mkt was on sub-10x earnings vs. German Bund at 2.5%.

  • Bob the Horse

    Ultimately a rally to sell but I don't want to be early.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks Alessiov. I'm going to listen to this all night. Reminds me of when I used to hang out at Bauhaus Books and Coffee late night into the morning hours.

    http://www.flickr.com/search/?w=all&q=bauhaus+s

    I don't have any trades on right now but who knows, maybe soon (I'm pretty damn selective). Still trade options on SLV and GLD.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm sure you'll always remember that. Too young to join you, was I.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I listened to the John Petrucci piece you linked and some others of his. I see that he is a virtuoso guitar player, but I'm not a big fan of the music. Why not? The music doesn't confront me, it's not something I get lost in or journey to the edge with, and I don't participate in some runaway orgasmic experience. Dylan's songs were characterized by urgency, Coltrane flirted with and later made love with the chaos, and Hendrix is what happens when earth fucks with space.

  • raised_by_wolves

    ($SPX*(SLV/GLD)) is stuck below this resistance level and will probably continue to move sideways like it did in 2007 before it eventually collapsed in 2008.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    If $SPX is affected by the nominal movements of GDP, what are silver and gold affected by?

  • gsavli

    That has to be the shortest wave 2 in history (3 days).

  • gsavli

    US robotics full throttle long.

  • spicestory

    recently, you brought our attention to Christ Caloran “weekly” VIX that it was still in the progress of touching the upper band. How is it going? thank you

  • convictscott

    YM M0 broke the daily lows while ES M0 did not, making bullish non-confirmation.

    Methinks its evidence of another tape bashing exercise today

  • gsavli

    “Methinks its evidence of another tape bashing exercise today”

    no kidding, they are back to the old pumping through futures overnight. we haven't seen this tactics for awhile.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Has anyone been following or trading EUR/AUD?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for introducing me to Rory Gallagher. Wow!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1SZfGgZIcY

  • raised_by_wolves

    Holy fucking cow!

  • amokta

    On a brighter note, RBS (UK) shares are still down.

    p.s. if you short sell shares (optionsxpress allow this), is there a time-limit you have to declare on them by which you have to close the transaction, or is the only limit, the margin/cash you need to make up losses if price moves against you). What if the 'owner' of the shares from whom you borrowed wants to sell them asap!

  • amokta

    ftse up, futures up, asia up, pig bellies up, every thing UP?

  • gsavli

    today's mkt opening is going to be interesting.

    right now, futures are breaking up out of the triangle, so another wicked run up? on the other hand, this breakout feels unconvincing to me. Here's why (NQ chart):

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-D405_4BEA8653.html

    not the best picture, I hope it can be seen, we are backtesting the lower channel border.

  • alessiov

    this is one fast technical market, 30 pt daily ranges.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZTFlNTY5YmY

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    VIX is high man.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    “high” –> intended pun there.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    CSCO earnings tonight… yeah they sneak in their earnings after the earnings season is over.

    Past two occasions NQ has been run up 2% leading into the earnings.

    In Jan, the post-earnings pop marked the ST top around 1099-1102 area to start the downward ride that was prematurely ended at 1040

  • gsavli

    congrats on your call yesterday. you were right after all, we only had to wait few minutes into the AH.

  • isaiah64v4

    Good post mole +1

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX is looking bullish, tho short term overbought…on 30 mins
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NTU2ZWZi

    2 hrs looks like breaking out of flag…
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZTg0Nzc0

  • Gold_Gerb

    nope. have a tiny crumb long. waiting for short covering to end.
    :-)

  • djgrind

    looks topping to me…just at the 6170 retracement level according to our good old fibo 😉

  • gsavli

    this market has a funny feel to it. I just don't know what kind of feeling exactly that is yet.
    so, I'm seeing all sorts of things, mainly bearish (i am biased). Maybe what we are looking at, is just a bearish flag, broken by notorious Thursday action:

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-0BDA_4BEA995C.html

  • gsavli

    how are you charting fibo lines? I find it difficult to chart those due to those intraday dips.
    Are you using closing price to draw them?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes..and this is with the strong dollar..what happens when dollar weakens? commodities up again, equities up?

  • djgrind

    Daily charts (taking only the intraday extrems with the candle charts), nothing else – 75% retracement between top and low point = 6178

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I've been MIA because of moving and a lousy mobile broadband.

    hope everyone enjoyed this 4th wave, soylent blue is still alive IMHO

  • WTFed

    Hmm. Fizzle. Spanish austerity not so impressive to Mr. Market so far.

  • amokta

    ok, the opening false print is up a bit, but how much tape banging will they do today.
    strange, european & us markets somewhat lackluster/range bound considering the debt crisis has been 'solved' & 'recovery is here'

  • Bob the Horse

    I am looking for 1190 ESM0, will go short there, looking for re-test at 1100, then 1300.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Some major supply above 1160.. Each time we go there, major dump ensues.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Very likely we dont see 1190 and we see much lower than 1100 and we never see 1300 – Just my opinion..

    I think the trick is to scale into shorts and then scale out

  • bananaben

    What's your timing for a top at 1300? I still believe a top will be in place by Aug. at the latest.

    (Supposed to be reply to Bob)

  • Bob the Horse

    personally i am more concerned we go straight to 1300 without offering the opportunity at 1100. I am running through a lot of macro data right now and the more I look at it, the more terrified I am of any short positions. Will still have a go at 1090 but won't feel go about it.

    The problem with all this selling above 1060 is that it has now simply created a bunch of positions that will be forced to cover.

  • Bob the Horse

    Everything seems to happen in double-time these days. Depends if we get the re-test of 1100 later this month. Could be at 1300 by end-Jun!

  • amokta

    I see everything being pushed up in mini HFT increments. I see the MMs (master manipulators) are back in control. I am going to give this market one more year, before closing my shorts 9surely Prechter can't be too early again!)

  • BobbyLow

    At least in Vegas the “Boyz” allow a few people to win just to show that it can be done and it's good for business.

    But not on Wall Street. These Pigs want it all. And the Taxpayers bailed these Bastards out? For what?

    “JPMorgan Joins “Perfect 10″ Club With Flawless Trading Quarter, Morgan Stanley Loses Money On Just 4 Days”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpmorgan-joins

  • amokta

    I am still waiting for 'island in de sun' reversal

  • bananaben

    I don't know what to say – I have to agree with BobtheHorse. It could just go in a straight line up to 1300. The horror show for bears goes on. The moves on the Russell are just plain scary. Just moves up like an elevator.

  • theFADE

    i hope no one bought the vix yesterday. just another run of the mill market manipulation. we're back to thursdays level, as if the fall never happened. bears burned again

  • Barcode

    This looks like a replay of July, August to October 2007.

    Dax greatly outperforming the Cac and this time the FT100(due to too much debt because of the Bank blowup and tax rises and austerity coming).

    The US and Germany appear to be the only real bulls left in town in the West now. Final highs last week in July perhaps?

  • Barcode

    Zerohedge is saying the CDS traders are targetting the UK and France which certainly ties with the equity underperformance.

    http://www.leap2020.eu will probably have another report out next week, some of which is free and their analysis of the train wrecks coming has been good.
    See 'Contents' and it should be GEAB No45

  • nugie

    Get used to it. Put on some Pavarotti or Bach and relax.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who are you again?

  • gsavli

    or a wagner and just go long.

  • Kudos

    Mole, what do you make of the zero light signal.

  • alessiov

    low volume algo chopp chopp chopp, no real buying just bots churning. waiting for shift in order flow, 1170?

    stock pickers market so far, stocks r all over the place, no congruity in sectors and stocks within sectors

    GL

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    BIDU split 10-1. Stock up 10% for no reason other than people believing that they can now buy $700 stock for $70 – fools never learn – LOL

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The pop in BIDU is a perfect opportunity for options players to get some cheap May puts. This pop accompanied with pending retest of 1050 region makes for a delicious risk-reward

  • LilSpaniard

    Forming Neg divergence on the lite?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    BIDU has ramped up all morning on decreasing volume AND weakening RSI….

  • alessiov

    wish i knew, would have bought some for the ride.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Neg divergence is good.. but divergences can last all day… so you got to use something other than just this divergence…

  • skynard

    Does anyone else think that a back test of the neckline at SPX 1182 will transpire before dropping?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    that will be too obvious place to drop

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    why ????? you mean ride to the upside.. No man… the fun is to get puts – you can get them even now… it isn't much off from the highs…

  • Kudos

    personally think if we get up that high the bears should hibernate for a while. Think the bears need to win this battle now or get out of the way of the endless low volume meltup

  • bananaben

    Agreed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agreed…

  • Kudos

    Is the pound the new leading indicator in the same way the Euro was last week? GBP at fresh lows for the day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    A zoomed in version is sometimes misleading as many misjudge the strength og the signal. This is why I am putting up the warning. But we are now around the 1.0 mark so it's a reasonable reading – will zoom out again soon.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how easily we're forgoten… just the janitor

    May I sugest a small review of this minor gift?

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-F8D8_4BEAB8F1.html

    bears might be sweating, but bulls should be sweating blood

  • alessiov

    yup upside for the ride. not very crafty at options, need to learn that skill.

  • BobbyLow

    Actually, I like most music – with a range from Classical to Doo Wop.

    But for the occasion and that I'm pretty well hedged in my account I am listening to Wagner right now. :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V92OBNsQgxU

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    something's going to give..€ starting to sell off..also AUDUSD…

  • tradingmom

    I really like the zoomed in signal. I used it to time entries and exits today and it worked like a charm. Thanks again!

  • gsavli

    AAPL started giving back some…

  • bananaben

    In Europe, Gold is entering into a panic buying phase. They keep this tape bangin shit goin and maybe all of us will be going that route sooner than planned.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/panic-buying-p

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    AAPL will fill the gap near 266… BIDU will be a nice short at 80 (likely to get there today or tomorrow morning)

  • alessiov

    maybe they should put in another $500b to make sure this makes it to back to highs

  • gsavli

    most likely

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    MOFO Cramer is such a SOB – it is just unbelieveable.

    Today he says that he will treat GOLD price as indicator of the world economic growth. He is such a mofo…
    When Oil was up, then oil was an indicator.. that sort of made sense.. How the fuck does GOLD going up mean world economy growing… I think he has his head way too far up his ass.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Holy sheeet.. TF going parabolic again.

    TF up 5 points from yesterday's highs.. ES down 5 points from yesterday's highs… Panic buying of small cap… top is near IMO

  • Kudos

    Watch the tape, not the monkeys

  • Bob the Horse

    sorry – TF, what is that?

  • Tyler_K

    Russell 2K (mini) futures contracts

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    R2K futures..

    NQ <—> QQQQ <—> NDX
    ES <—> SPY <—> SPX
    TF <—> IWM <—> RUT

  • amokta

    at least it has not been a runaway day (so far). if tomorrow is an up day, then time to bailout while still in proft!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Atilla posted EOW post again yesterday. My god he is such a fade…. VIX buy signal – dont need that.. Just tell me when Atilla does an EOW post.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    They dumped this into Europe close… If US closes higher than where we were at 11:30am ET.. then Europe will push this up even more tonight.

  • skynard

    Some points to consider: bobthehorse & Standard&Poors are long. Not that we should follow anyone, but I respect their viewpoint. Lets not be to bearish here, Mole has also given warning. I'm looking at VIX to backtest the channel on Mole's chart above @22.5 before this market takes a direction. That could be today.

  • BobbyLow

    “Today he says that he will treat GOLD price as indicator of the world economic growth. He is such a mofo… “

    It is these types of statements coming from CNBC which led to my permanent ban of Jim (Bull Shit Artist) Cramer, Bob (I called around the floor) Pissssssani, Maria (Thunder Thighs) Fartaromo, Michelle (Rose Ann, Rose Anna Dana) Cabrera, Larry (I don't snort it no more) Kraplow, Mark (Pass the jug) Haynes, The Fast Money Crew (who will make your money disappear FAST) and all of the rest of the assholes on CNBC.

    I think it's been about 2 months or so without the above clowns and my life has been a lot better without these Carnival Barkers.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    IMO they should all join a strip club

  • Kudos

    For me its been over a year. I only see cnbc through clips posted on sights highlighting how retarded they are.

  • nugie

    Phantom of the Opera

  • Bob the Horse

    thx, for some reason Bloomberg has TF being the Swedish 5 yr bond contract

  • bananaben

    What happened to David “Bears are Pussies” DT?

  • nugie

    it's the one you want to be short when they really break down TF will look like Patricia Romer with 100 pounds of lead in her ass trying to break through the bottom of the White House Swimming pool.

  • Tronacate

    GLD on a tear

  • bananaben

    I hate to say but when the market has hovered mid day like this in the past it usually has resulted in an EOD ramp.

  • spudthorpe

    Unless it represents the unwinding of long positions rather than establishment of new short positions. There have to be a lot people trapped in last Thursday's crash who are relieved to get out at or near par.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • marcopolo101520

    kudos, you are to the point, watch the tape not the monkeys…..love it!

  • marcopolo101520

    I am long since Friday too. I even mentioned my first target 1175-1180 today or tomorrow. Are we still on that? One thing that I am affraid is that bears are turning day traders and daytaders are turning bears. When this thing turns around one btter be hedged like Mole says…

  • Long_John_Silver

    Dylan was seriously brain-damaged by the motorcycle accident and almost died – this first-hand from Doors producer Paul Rothchild who saw Dylan just afterward in Woodstock and told me it was thought he'd never play again. Dylan did continue some years later, but at a much lower, more erratic level, losing artistic direction while still delivering the occasional great song, like Knockin' on Heaven's Door (his comeback single in the early 70's). In recent Hilburn interviews Dylan says he only rediscovered the real sources of his talent in the past few years, revealed in stronger work on his last two CD's, but these are late works, elegiac and gnomic, he's almost 70, and remote to younger folks – my daughter loves his early songs but won't listen to the new stuff..

    What changed in American culture was that people stopped taking LSD in favor of downers and cocaine. Also during Hendrix' lifetime, the Vietnam war colored everything, with powerful anti-Vietnam war protests arising everywhere, a political revolution sweeping the country, over 200 ROTC buildings torched to the ground on American campuses while huge mobilizations of 100,000 + war protesters took to the streets in cities across the country.. all this in a context of urban riots and the rise of a New Left, all extremely destabilizing to the System ..

    The war was close, you'd see dead and wounded soldiers every night on TV, and Hendrix' music reflected it, the endless, racist holocaust infusing his music with a horrifying darkness at times – he was in the military in the 101st Airborne and parachuted out of transport planes, but the sound he gets from the guitar at times echoes the battle-roaring engines of Huey helicopters, surely a sound Jimi Hendrix knew very well ..

    The music doesn't arise from nothing, it arises from its time, from its generation.. The 60's were a great time, with great spirit and great spiritual vision spreading across the planet and creating a new, unimagined future which was ready to transform the world. Music was the messenger of that vision everywhere, and Jimi was on the cutting edge, adored and listened to by peaceniks at Woodstock and by soldiers under fire at Khe Sanh, a moment accurately portrayed in “Apocalypse Now,” the only movie (or narrative work of any kind) which gives an idea what those times were like..

    In our own time, Jimi's vast spirit and apocalyptic music is even more valuable, as it's so deeply rooted in radical transformation, embracing drugs, politics, racial harmony, and global community in an outburst of pleasure and erotic abandon. We need all that now more than ever..

  • Long_John_Silver

    Thanks for explaining – I thought you meant the Thai Fund etf

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    your very welcome.. always surprised more people havn't heard of him.

  • raised_by_wolves

    My not having heard of Rory Gallagher probably has to do with my age and inexperience. What are my initial impressions? Gallagher is free in ways that Hendrix is and Clapton is not. Gallagher represents anti-establishment. The establishment started regaining control in the 70s, eh? To my ears, that's when the majority of music starts sounding mediocre again. My guess why more people haven't heard of him: Since Gallagher didn't go along with the establishment, he didn't gain as much recognition but did create freer music than he would have if he had sold out.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you for sharing your perspectives. Did you live during that era, or have you relived it through other people, music, and books?

    Do you think young people will rise up together like they did during the 60s? Maybe we're too radically individualistic this time around, not to mention media-influenced and unquestioning. To me, the probability seems higher that there be widespread anarchy or the establishment of a police state instead of a peaceful revolution.

  • Long_John_Silver

    I have to concede being a direct participant in the Vietnam anti-war movement, a card-carrying member of SDS in the late 60's and a devoted campus radical. Then, as now, there was a lot of confusion even among fellow students – people felt that a lot was wrong but a more sophisticated political analysis was missing, with a lot of folks adhering to an individualistic, 'do your own thing' ethic, despite all the powerfully collective events that the era generated from peace marches to woodstock, all of them unprecedented in US history.

    That danger still obtains, on a more extreme level. You see libertarians confusing their beliefs with those of far-right wingers, Tea Party types who have a legitimate complaint or two, but who then go in the wrong direction in expressing it. Also, a sense of moral leadership is absent: back then Martin Luther King and the entire civil rights movement as well as a radical press, a generation of musicians and many others were informing the public on a very high level, not just political. But Hendrix, for example, did tour Sweden and Scandinavia repeatedly, a center for US deserters from the Vietnam war, many black, who'd found a haven. Jimi played for them and dedicated his work to them, clearly in deep sympathy.

    There's a lot to talk about here, but just as an overall observation: ultimately I felt the anti-war movement was a failure. It didn't stop the war, nor have recent, even larger and better-funded movements had much effect on ending our current foreign wars. That means we weren't doing the right things, or creating a political movement which would make change necessary. Back then, the times were so exciting and exhilarating that many – including myself – thought profound social change was inevitable – all we had to do was sit back and enjoy it. Light up a joint, put on some sounds…

    But that greatly underestimated the System, a System which took the whole country very far in a dark, right wing direction as a result, for decades afterwards, and clamped down on many of the freedoms that made the 60's possible (press censorship of the current wars is one of the biggest, btw – if people saw these wars as they are, there would be a huge outcry against them).

    Naivete allowed the right to prevail (that and the October Surprise, see Consortium.com for all the suppressed details on that crucial event in US history), and allowed Iran Contra and the Contra War and further subversion of democracy in Latin America (a hideous series of events, over 200,000 killed in Guatemala alone) to continue without serious obstruction.

    So the answer to your question is yes – there's a great danger of that, although anarchy and a police state are opposite ends of the pole. Anarchists ran industrialized Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War and increased production 15-20% under very tough wartime conditions, a model to study closely… And a peaceful revolution may be a contradiction in terms: in Russia, it was a counter-revolution, throwing the wealth of the Soviet Union into the hands of a criminal elite that resulted from the quiescence of the populace… Ghandi meant well, but India turned into a huge mess and still is. China, for all the faults of its revolution, did a lot better by its people as a whole.

    You've got me started – anyway, thanks for your interest – point is that in the 60's the music was only the tip of the iceberg, though it still stands as potent inspiration for all the same enlightened and progressive intuitions which Americans share, if only they could be expressed in a way that didn't play into a right wing agenda. Sorting that out will take some smart, dedicated people who've got the larger situation clearly in view, perhaps such as yourself –

    What you hear in Jimi Hendrix' music is not just *music* – it's a world being torn apart, and then that world being reformed by a new, extraordinary vision of the future. all the best, LJS.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Long John Silver,

    Let's talk more in the future.

    Cheers,

    Raised By Wolves

  • Long_John_Silver

    be a pleasure, if you like you can email me directly – intensitymedia AT yahoo DOT com – cheers, ljs