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Bullish Defense Perimeter
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Bullish Defense Perimeter

by The MoleOctober 13, 2016

As we are officially embedded with the bear brigade it’s now time to scope out the bull’s long term defense perimeter. Since Sergeant Gold Gerb suffers from chronic insomnia he was uniquely qualified to make his way into enemy territory overnight and report back to us. Not only was he able to collect extensive intelligence, he even managed to take out a nest of stop runners single handedly with nothing but a sharpened spoon. Now here’s some of what he uncovered:

2016-10-13_spoos_update

Alright, this week you guys were handed not one but two prime opportunities to jump on the transport heading South here [1][2]. If you snoozed both times then don’t bother with the paltry excuses and proceed directly to headquarters for a court martial. It’s not that I wasn’t clear when handing out my instructions.

2016-10-13_spoos_lt

Of course the battle is far from a winning one as the bulls enjoy have established several defense perimeters which I expect will take overwhelming force to overcome. I’ve already called for air support and additional troops to back us up, but was given a denial of both, so we may be heading into another Benghazi here. What we are dealing with is the 25-day SMA near ES 2115 which will need to be taken out first, which is bolstered by the 25-week SMA in the same range. If overcome we’ll still have to deal with a monthtly Net-Lines stronghold at ES 2089. If that one gives by any chance then we’re good to go until about 2025.

Curb Your Enthusiasm

Clearly this may just be bear trap #2987 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed is prepared to say or do anything to stave off a larger slide ahead of the November 8 presidential election. This seems to be the de facto mindset in several bearish watering holes I decided to visit last night. Which means the bus is pretty empty here and may just have a chance to speed off. Obviously wasting any time on mentally masturbating about what may happen is a complete waste of time. Despite this being one of the toughest trading years in recent memory we have done exceedingly well by simply trading the tape directly in front of us. So let’s keep that up, shall we?

Two juicy new setups below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m overrunning enemy positions per my training, equipment and motivation.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Use your grenades if necessary.

  • Tomcat

    I may be the last bull standing… long @2110

  • Mark Shinnick

    So far been fully mechanized blitzkrieg.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mole’s so funny.
    But when it comes to money, it’s no laughing matter.
    Have a plan, trade the plan.

    http://cdn.quotesgram.com/small/50/88/1949940430-keep-calm-i-m-a-warrant-officer.png

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The 110 line has been crossed. Watch for snap backs, otherwise adjust stops.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71038802945

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    I’d rather loot the CBs from its gold reserves and run for the hills. Incidentally, PMs are bid today 😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Oh…flashback… I really hope ridingwaves hasn’t been living off of tacobell all this time. Miss him, need him.

  • BKXtoZERO

    sold TVIX 16.90 to 20.40, trying some uslv from 16.3

  • Yoda
  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like a 24 objective tvix is workable. PMs still in echo from big bang.

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes but they wore me out. I already could have had 2 of these

  • Mark Shinnick

    True psychic warfare all this stuff.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Gunning for your position…

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Wow, Daily Chuckles galore. Great way to start my morning. Thanks, I was laughing all the way through the posts.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Yes, he most certainly is delightful.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …still pounding away.

  • kudra

    greenlander: nice call on L NUGT yesterday. I’m on the opposite side of that one and getting shelled.

  • Mark Shinnick

    nugt above 10.71 has good potential.

  • Tomcat

    A bit frustrated that I cut my profits short on $NG. Oh well, moving on to better and greater things…I hope.

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….harder target than I figured…need to re-group a little…sticking with battle plan.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Tough to make a judgment here – no momentum means it can swing either way. So far it looks like the bears are going to fumble again.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff691b1cf31c9669b9d78ed536933b59b7c1bef07aeee84b8d3efcdf1b774443.png

  • kudra

    Bears seeing a lil daylight here.

  • Mark Shinnick

    AAPL darling proceeding to degrade pretty well since it turned to final approach the other day. Its deterioration behavior is nominal. I’m hanging general equities short in part because I don’t believe we have seen good evidence of capitulation – a thing that recency bias has largely conditioned out of our expectancy lens.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Hope is not a strategy!

    Drop and give me 50!! private.

  • Yoda

    Action appears to be elsewhere, on the currency side especially. If DX keeps on dropping we may end up with a daily bearish engulfing candle. It wouldn’t be a surprise given the exponential ramp we have seen in DX over the last two weeks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Everything keeps running in circles. I think that is the main reason why I see defections among retail all the way to professional traders. This is the must fucked up tape I have endued since I started this blog and that includes the 2008 financial crash.

  • Mark Shinnick

    From a rather simplistic energy viewpoint, if so much market energy is becoming wasted in entropy, I think that undermines the market.

  • Tomcat

    Yes sir!!!

  • OJuice

    What a bunch of pussies…

  • Yoda

    Yup, I couldn’t agree more. Hence why I gave up trading indices for now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It never fails – does it…

  • OJuice

    The goal always wide open. SPX 2100 should have been an easy grab I thought. Maybe a divergence to produce a bounce from there.

  • ZigZag

    Beartrap #2987 it is then. Quelle surprise.

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….may need to retreat this time ‘around. “Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.”

  • Mark Shinnick

    CL short almost on the ropes, still hanging in there for time being.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…true or not this time….will need to appear that way.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This would be a great place to go short for that run…

  • Tomcat

    Wait…flipped my long to short…trying to stay nimble…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow, about now would be the time…awesome man.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch. Yes, what a bunch of profit taking bear pussies.
    {sigh}
    well, one day does not make a trend. EDIT: it’s a range trade from one perspective.

    S&P-80
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84960283090

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Liquidity in stocks is now < 1 Million per day. It used to be around three and even more during the financial crisis. The exchanges thought that the bots are going to offset the loss of activity but that obviously ain't happening.

  • Mark Shinnick

    So…this is essentially opportunistic picking-off SAF that decent armour can hold off.

    I’ve seen this before…and felt really stupid not holding position. TGIF tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I was thinking of a snap-back tomorrow. not a tail.

    back to the PX for supplies. see ya’ tomorrow.
    -WO GG

    [S&P 110]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71038802945

  • Tomcat

    I expect 110% from you GG every time

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow….imagine what that could mean during any real decline ;/

  • Mark Shinnick

    Flat PM’s

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Are you kidding me? The GG is a trading robot from the future and he’s clearly overclocked at 150Mhz.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • randomuser6789

    850GHz

  • BKXtoZERO

    He made quite a comeback from the days of being beaten senseless by Scott/others. Kudos GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks.
    in retrospect, they meant well.
    and I’ve stopped sticking a Tee in everything and sworn off Moon cycles.
    LOL.

  • kim

    this tape looks pretty mild in past few months, for anything near bear market much more violence is needed https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06c69b3f0ccc693fb5af6580490c1e37edc99d2473d6915cd8b6a58bfbe7ebee.png , we might get some real soon but we are not there yet…we are in a ride the bull mode since 2009…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No argument there. It ain’t over until it is over. And thus far the LT panel says tired but not done.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Thanks Kudra dont think my position is out of the woods. Wanted a gap and go day, hopefully tomorrow/ Mon

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, the CB controlled environment mode is just a fact of life.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    So, I’m all backed-out of equities for the time being. The whole campaign mostly a waste of time with only minor net loss. Will re-enter as indicated.