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Busy Groundhog Day Morning Briefing
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Busy Groundhog Day Morning Briefing

by The MoleMay 12, 2014

Strange thing is happening to me – for the past few months I keep waking up every day and it’s the same tape over and over again. Maybe all that bad karma has finally caught up to me and I’m being punished for all the suffering I have inflicted over the years on the hapless souls who found themselves on the other side of my trades.

Favorite line – deja vu – I don’t think so, but I could check with the kitchen. Now seriously though – equities are bouncing based on who knows what and we’re back right where we’ve been dangling over and over again during the past few weeks:

The hourly Bollinger shows us pretty close to where we should expect a reversal. However, if there’s a breach across the recent highs – let’s say 1886 then this puppy may just muster up the mojo to power higher.

The TF is trailing the spoos but if we see a little drop before a punch higher then we may be able to get a nice entry here on the hourly. Long above 1106.7 with a stop below both ST SMAs.

We have a TON of setups this morning, so let’s get to it. Especially the EUR and Yen pairs are looking delicious this morning. Here’s the EUR/JPY which is a good long above 140.36’2 with a stop below 140.2.

NZD/JPY also a long right here – stop below 87.8 which is below the 25-hour SMA – we may see a retest.

There’s a lot more where that came from – please step into my lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • captainboom

    ZFX is stuck.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just got it back up again. Data feed died over the weekend.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well as I said on Friday absent WwIII over the weekend and we would be probing the highs this week.

    Keep you eyes open for a false breakout followed by a rug pull.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ll keep a keen eye on the ZL during the ensuing tape.

  • CorporalCarrot

    For those Reading too much into recent divergences between the indices this is an eye opening article.

    http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/2014/05/risk-indices-dont-consistently-lead-or.html?m=1

  • Ronebadger

    VIX down 8% at open

  • CorporalCarrot

    This has all the hallmarks of frantic short covering.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I can almost see tomorrow from the top of my wheel.

    http://s28.postimg.org/l5y4hehbh/tomorrow.png

    😉

  • DarthTrader

    Pop & Drop . . . Squeeze & Freeze . . .

    I’ve been fading the overall move of the 1st half hour over the last few weeks and banking coin. Will this be the day that no longer works . . . Nothing works forever.

    Gerbs when did or does your T complete?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    today….http://s18.postimg.org/v7fz3gao9/Too_quiet.png

    but remember, a T doesn’t guarantee a reversal. just a good time to take an educated risk. Given that the bullish percentage SPX is pointing up, keep it small if you plan to short. Risk could go to 90 (over unknown amount of days) for all I know.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Haven’t seen this many blue arrows in along time. That being said they can be unreliable on trend days.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • DarthTrader

    Very Good Time to be testing the S&P Highs . . . would love a Key Reversal today.

    Waitin and Watchin

  • ridingwaves

    waiting for Cisco to report on Wed….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    u got some pics, that I have to say…
    I’m crying over not staying in the CLDX trade…the gerb scared me from staying in it….damn…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    stop the train.
    you make 10% and now you blame a runaway on me?
    that’s cold.
    =P

  • ridingwaves

    can’t I blame someone? Since we can’t have emotions here!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, off to the salt mine.
    L8ter.

  • Darkthirty

    E throwover……….

  • DarthTrader

    Looks to me like market is unfurling a bull flag for a while then a ramp to the all time S&P highs . . . if volume expands and price ramps stay on the Bull. If price contracts watch for the reversal. Stopping just below the Highs to build cause for the next move (perhaps at the close) is bullish in itself but you still have to wait for the action.

    Market show their hands at the swings . . . that info should be coming soon.

  • DarthTrader

    OTOH if you’re a Jumbo Bear with massive amount to distribute, parking just below highs is a great place to find willing buyers to take your supply as they try to lift market over the highs.

    Also Preventing Markets from hitting numbers keeps many players out of the next move . . .

  • Cravenmorehead

    Might get a RLCO short entry soon

  • Cravenmorehead

    GC might be a decent long if it rejects the VWAP too

  • DarthTrader

    GBP/JPY selling off taking away Liquidity but VIX dropping adding Liquidity.

    Market is at a Major Pivot Point but which way is still play. Definitely a day to pay attention much to be learned from days like this if we get some kind of resolution.

  • Cravenmorehead

    My guess is we’ll either go up from here…go down…or maybe stay about the same

  • Cravenmorehead

    !5 min 10 period RL crossed the 30….still outside 1sd BB

  • Cravenmorehead

    Gold running up along 30 period BB midline on 15min

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    your prognostication is unprecedented in absolute ambiguity.

  • Ronebadger

    Shear profundity…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly – good read.

  • DarthTrader

    It’s uncanny . . . he never misses!

  • Cravenmorehead

    I’m also a psychic and faith healer….

  • newbfxtrader

    Price mostly above WVAP. Zero above zero. Nothing to short here.

  • mugabe

    That’s what I like: actionable intelligence. I’m coat-tailing you on this one.

  • mugabe

    By the way, yesterday I downloaded a book called Technically Speaking. It was published in 1996. It’s long and consists of in-depth interviews with 16 famed technical analysts. It’s out of print and so I don’t feel bad about spreading this information. From what I’ve read far (2 and a half chapters), it’s really really excellent. You can skip the first chapter imo as the guy has a non-replicable methodology, but the second chapter is absolutely superb. It’s a bit like a Market Wizards book but more TA-oriented.
    The link is:
    http://www.forex-warez.com/Free%20Download/Chris%20Wilkinson%20-%20Technically%20Speaking/

  • Cravenmorehead

    !0 period LR on 15 min and price about to enter 1sd river…..s ES

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Have to pass till this evening. don’t think my employer URL filter is going to like something with warez in the name.

  • Cravenmorehead

    Full cross of the BB would give around 1880

  • Cravenmorehead

    NEW SUBSCRUPTION………100 bucks a month to have signals of the opposite of my trades sent directly to your smartphone….lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dude, most of them aren’t even tempted by a system that banked 50R in a quarter – good luck 😉