Strike The Iron While It’s Hot

The thundering silence in the comment section tells me one thing: The vast majority of you guys missed out on this beauty of a short squeeze. Not that I’m surprised and I’m not here to rub in it. But I am here to make sure you won’t forget or tell yourself that nobody could have seen this one coming. My message stands as it has over and over in the past few years:

Ignore the noise – fade the hype - forget the news. Just show up to work when it’s time to strike the iron. You don’t have to be smart, white, black, tall, beautiful, muscular, flexible, or particularly charming (but it helps). All you need to do is to press the damn button when it’s blinking. And guess what, early morning on October 20th it was flashing like a strobe light at the Pacha.

2014-10-28_entry

That was then.

2014-10-28_ES_update

And this is now.

Trading is not an endeavor for thrill seekers. It’s what everyone wants you to think of course – the exciting life of the hot shot market mangler. This is what they’re selling you:

wows

And this is the reality:

bingo

Alright, it’s a bit more exciting than that but not by much. All you have to do is to show up for work when I tell you the getting is good. And perhaps – juuuust perhaps – next time you’ll listen?

2014-10-28_2205

Yes, tomorrow is FOMC day and who knows what’ll happen. I don’t get those phone calls. Do I worry about it? Nope – I banked my coin already and my stop is set at a respectable distance. Could. Not. Care. Less. And that’s how I roll – the easy way. If you want excitement, conspiracy theories, and your daily dose of drama point your browser to ZeroEdge. You’ll get that and a heaping serving of inane commentary.

You think this market is boring? I tell you what is boring. Handing out $100 bills on street corners and for some reason nobody wants them. Gets old quick. You guys should be working your asses off. But who am I – just a lowly market mole. What do I know? Not much, but hey – apparently it’s working.

FWIW – this campaign is just getting warmed up – if I have my way I’ll ride this bronco into the New Year. That’s right – this year the Mole is eating turkey for X-Mas!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Time For A Breather

I see a lot of guesswork in the comment section and it’s time to take you guys out of your misery. Many of you are feeling bullish right now and after last week’s drop the odds for a bounce here are good but not guaranteed – we are literally sitting on the edge of a sell off. Which is often where some of the best setups happen – but we have to remain nimble and not jump to conclusions. So let’s try to shed a bit more light on what’s going on:

2014-10-13_SPX_daily

Exhibit number one – the BB configuration on the daily chart supports at least an obligatory bounce here. Because if we drop further from here we are not stopping until 1800 or lower – so the bulls have a vested interest in holding this level. Not saying it can’t happen but we’re talking odds here – a bounce would relive some of the oversold conditions and perhaps prepare us for a stab lower.

2014-10-13_zero

The Zero shows us almost non-existing participation down here. You can interpret that as a lack of buying pressure – yes – but what’s more important on the way down is whether or not there is selling pressure and I see none here.

2014-10-13_UVOL

See what I mean? Complete flat line – the bears aren’t interested down here and this gives the bulls a chance to catch a breath and wait for further instructions.

2014-10-13_VIX

On the VIX we’re also pretty extended – I don’t think we proceed directly to 25 or 30 from here. We haven’t seen volatility like that all year and there will be pushback.
More crucial evidence looming below the fold – please step into my lair:


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Cheers,

Short Term Opportunity

Forgive my absence this morning, as you may imagine I’m still recovering from my back injury. However, I have not been completely useless as I’m actually working on a very cool surprise for you guys. I’ll explain it all either tomorrow or Monday, depending on how fast I get it done. In the meantime I have been observing the recent gyrations on the E-Mini and given the ES 1903 retest a little earlier I think we have ourselves a juicy short term setup opportunity. That is IF we wield the iron while it’s hot!

You may recall that 1903 was yesterday’s low as well and it tested once again today. I cannot guarantee you that it’ll hold, we simply have to wait things out. But we do have a rare opportunity right now for a long campaign with a stop just a few handles away. Get long here and put your stop a few ticks below 1903 – that’s it. Don’t play options as vega squeeze would rob you of most of your profits – stick with the futures or if you want your favorite ETF (short term they are fine).

That’s the view courtesy of the Zero indicator – over the past three sessions the hourly panel has been producing a pretty distinct divergence. Again, that doesn’t mean that the lows cannot be breached but until this happens (and we drop through 1903) there are decent odds down here for a bounce and perhaps a little short squeeze. Below 1903 Lucifer awaits and all bullish bets are off.

UPDATE  1:49pm EDT: As I’m typing this we are right below VWAP at 1912 – a push above it before the close probably seals the deal on a little bounce higher. If VWAP cannot be breached then it’s fair to hold any long (futures) positions beyond the NYSE close but make sure you are around to manage them. Now let’s grab the popcorn and see what happens.

UPDATE  EOS: The bulls didn’t have the mojo to drive the tape higher. This may get ugly and turn into Soylent Red. We’ll watch the tape but we won’t be trying any long positions until a bullish or bearish inflection point has been reached.

See you guys tomorrow – have fun but keep it frosty.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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