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March 11, 2014

Building Your Trading System – Part 3

This is Scott, filling in for Mole this week, and I’d like to continue with our work on System Building and optimization.  Today we move away from the intangibles and get deep into the weeds of classifying and measuring market type and looking at how to find a prospective edge, choose an initial stop and an entry technique, and do some preliminary backtesting to work out if we have something real or are we curve fitting.

If you haven’t read my earlier posts here and here you may wish to do so.

In my experience when I hear a trader identify as ” I’m a discretionary trader” this is really subconscious code for “I want to do what I want [...]

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March 10, 2014

Building Your Trading System – Part 2

This is Scott, I’m filling in for Mole this week, and I’d like to help you start the process of building your trading systems. Over the next week or so I’ll be going through the exact process I use, most of which is adapted from the process Van Tharp and his students use which is outlined in great detail in his latest book, which I recommend. Today might seem a little wishy-washy. Don’t worry, very soon we will be down in the detail of how to come up with and generate entry techniques and optimize exits.

I see in the comment section of the previous post that people have posted some of their market beliefs. This might seem a bit silly and I know some of [...]

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September 3, 2012

How To Develop A Trading System – Part 1

In recent weeks I have been quite prolific regarding the current state of affairs on the equity front. There really is not much to add and if you have been following my work then you should be well prepared and ready to pull the trigger with confidence once equities decide to pick a direction later this week. Thus instead of regurgitating my long term charts I have decided to use this Labor Day as an opportunity to indulge your recent requests for some perspectives on basic trading related concepts.

As I am a big fan of the ‘jumping in feet first’ method this series will cover how one may develop a complete automated trading system. This will not only allow me to [...]

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April 27, 2012

Smile Modeling; What Is SKEW?

I am sending this out, but will not be able to respond to questions till Monday as I am on an annual “family” business trip this weekend.

This post will be a bit dry, but hopefully interesting to those who trade options.  This may sound educational, but hopefully it encourages some deep thought. To be blunt- all of this- is so I can say I have a vega of 3 today and a vega of 4.5 in two weeks. 99% of traders cannot do that (or they think they can but their math is wrong). Yet the guy on the other end of the trade (market maker) clearly knows about smiles, convexity, or stochastic volatility. This is why call rape (patent pending), skew rape (patent pending), and [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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