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June 19, 2017

Volume Holes

Equities continue to be a mixed bag and while simple price tells one part of the story the volume profile also shows us the ranges where we should expect buying and selling pressure. Of course bear in mind that the volume profile is based on historical context and for a true perspective we would need to acquire fairly costly Level 2 access and then evaluate the offering and bidding lots. For the average retail rat Level 2 access is however way outside the budget so I guess volume holes it is.

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June 8, 2017

Fooled By Randomness

It is Mario Draghi’s turn to torment market participants this morning, which means a market overview will have to wait until the wave of volatility has washed over us and hopefully left some of our open campaigns intact. In the interim I decided to channel my inner Nicholas Taleb and ruin your collective day by singlehandedly smashing what you hold most dear as traders, i.e. your perspective on how markets function and your ability to anticipate what may come next. And if you think I am joking then you are most likely doubly mistaken. Read on at your own peril:

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June 6, 2017

Waiting For Godot

Another difficult lesson to be learned as an aspiring trader or investor is that trending markets are either the easiest or the hardest to trade. Clearly it’s great if you got in early and your positions are flashing bright green. Otherwise it very much depends on your trading style and of course whether or not you managed to get a seat on the bus. You may prefer to wait for a confirmation retest before hopping on an unfolding trend, you may not get filled (it happens!), or perhaps you simply got kicked off just before it took off.

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May 9, 2017

Temptations

I had to kick that mythical German discipline into overdrive today as I kept tripping over juicy looking but yet immature setups. Practice what you preach they say. If you read yesterday’s post then you recall my thoughts on why premature (discretionary) entries can lead to early stop outs, that they will affect your position sizing, and that they affect you psychologically if you let them. Another perhaps more obvious aspect I didn’t delve into was the fear of missing out, a.k.a. greed’s ugly cousin.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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