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August 14, 2017

VIX Buy Signal Issued

It seems we once more have been spared from nuclear annihilation. Although if  you somehow got clickbaited into any of the MSM shill pieces on North Korea then you’re probably reading this cowered below your bunkbed in your make shift nuclear bunker. I for one couldn’t be less worried, as years of consuming massive amounts of GM wheat beer has effectively rendered me impervious to any type of radiation. I don’t even use a flashlight at night anymore as certain body parts have started to emit an orange glow.

Alright you market mutants, it’s time to pay attention. There is a pretty good chance that we’re going to see a bonafide confirmed VIX [...]

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July 20, 2017

Evil Science Theater 4000

We have a small cause for celebration today as this will officially be post #4000 here on Evil Speculator. Which incidentally was launched all the way back in early August of 2008 – almost exactly nine years ago. It was a time of wonder back then and electricity had just been invented a few months earlier. I still remember having to take an Uber horse buggy to the evil lair in the morning, on muddy unpaved roads seamed with beggars and packs of rabid wild dogs. Trading was done by telegraph in encrypted morse code and our favorite way of shorting commodity futures was by arson of a hapless local grain farmer. Those were the days! Quite a few of you regulars from back when are [...]

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June 12, 2017

Figuring Out How Wrong You Are

This post was inspired by a Quantopian lecture I greatly enjoyed this weekend and which once again confirmed to me that even the most basic tools and measures taught in the vast majority of educational trading material merely give us a momentary snapshot of the whole underlying picture. To take any statistical or technical parameter at bare face value is akin to judging an entire movie by a single frame or a composition by a single note. So let’s put those 3D glasses on and learn how to dig a little deeper, shall we?

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June 8, 2017

Fooled By Randomness

It is Mario Draghi’s turn to torment market participants this morning, which means a market overview will have to wait until the wave of volatility has washed over us and hopefully left some of our open campaigns intact. In the interim I decided to channel my inner Nicholas Taleb and ruin your collective day by singlehandedly smashing what you hold most dear as traders, i.e. your perspective on how markets function and your ability to anticipate what may come next. And if you think I am joking then you are most likely doubly mistaken. Read on at your own peril:

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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