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December 5, 2017

Confirmation Bias

When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is that we tend to see mostly what we want to see, facts, evidence, or reason be damned. Also known as ‘confirmation bias’ this factory installed feature of the human condition seems to particularly live up to its promise when it comes to the trading racket. Throw in a few wild swings and the bulls will regard each drive lower as an obvious dip buying opportunity while the bears see it as clear confirmation that the prevailing trend is weakening.

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September 15, 2017

Tulips Anyone?

I bought some bitcoin a few years ago at about $440.- and kind of had forgotten about it since as I only had been interested in digital currencies as a possible alternative payment method here at Evil Speculator. However after some research into the space I discarded the idea for two reasons: For one should BTC ever fail then switching recurring subs back to the old greenback would be problematic. And second the gyrations even back then made my head spin and I didn’t consider it ready for prime time.

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August 29, 2017

At The Edge Of The Abyss

Over the past few sessions a situation has arisen which effectively puts us at the edge of the abyss on two separate but related fronts: U.S. equities and the Dollar. While the mainstream media is once again entangled in a furious clickbait initiative courtesy of our favorite East Asian bad-boy Kim Jong Un, I’m more concerned about what I’m seeing on my comparatively boring technical charts. Not to milk every doomsday metaphor I can think of but the storm that’s brewing here could have serious medium to long term consequences. So let’s observe the potential damage as well as consider opportunities for leveraging the situation:

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June 2, 2017

Thank You Sir May I Have Another?

One tough lesson we all wind up learning during our time as traders, professional or otherwise, is that being right means nothing and being profitable means everything. Now that statement does not give you license to simply follow your whims as long as you wind up being profitable in the end. Instead the point I’m making is that you can be right but still wind up losing, especially when Ms. Market decides to turn into bitch mode. Did that sink in? It should because there are important implications:

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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