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August 16, 2017

FOMC Day

It’s going to be a quiet day here at the lair until chairwoman Janet Yellen delivers the Fed minutes at 2:00pm Eastern. The Euro continued its downward trajectory after a purported ‘trial balloon’ report that Draghi’s speech at Jackson Hole would not announce the start of the ECB’s taper. Now if that sounds somewhat confusing to you then console yourself knowing that you are not alone, as spending any time on trying to decrypt the confusing and contradicting reports coming out of central banks these days is an utter and complete waste of time.

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August 15, 2017

Skeptical

Something doesn’t add up here. We got our VIX Buy Signal confirmation and that is short to medium term bullish for equities (again, the buy refers to the latter, not the former). However I’m smelling a potential rat as the Dollar finally looks like it may be ready to squeeze the heck out of the shorts. And usually that is not exactly bullish for equities, is it now? Let’s look at some key markets and then decide the best course of action:

Alright, so there’s the lower close on the VIX which, per the rules discussed yesterday, officially puts a confirmed VIX Buy Signal on the map. No, there won’t be a parade, sorry. First up it’s too [...]

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August 9, 2017

Kim Jong Boom

I have always discouraged political discussions on Evil Speculator for many reasons. One, the news are 80% composed of lies and subjective opinions. Two, the remaining 20% are mainly composed of ideologically driven misinformation, which leaves us with an extremely low signal to noise ratio. Three, the human mind can only process and absorb a finite amount of daily information, and excess of input can result into mental overload. Four, all information will to some extent affect you subconsciously, even the one you have consciously dismissed as worthless.  Chew on that for a moment.

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July 17, 2017

Draghi On The Tightrope

The ECB is scheduled to meet on Thursday, however it’s only an internal meeting and no new economic staff projections (ESPs) are expected. Bond investors in particular are looking for Draghi’s press conference for clues as to what interest rate policy to expect for the third and fourth quarters of this year. But given that the EUR/USD is now heading toward 1.15 I have an inkling that Mr. Draghi will choose his words very cautiously as he is now walking a precarious economic tightrope.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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