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June 8, 2017

Fooled By Randomness

It is Mario Draghi’s turn to torment market participants this morning, which means a market overview will have to wait until the wave of volatility has washed over us and hopefully left some of our open campaigns intact. In the interim I decided to channel my inner Nicholas Taleb and ruin your collective day by singlehandedly smashing what you hold most dear as traders, i.e. your perspective on how markets function and your ability to anticipate what may come next. And if you think I am joking then you are most likely doubly mistaken. Read on at your own peril:

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May 24, 2017

Waiting Out The Storm

We’re being treated to a veritable laundry list of market moving events today, which for me means to hunker down and wait for less volatile conditions. By the time you read this Mario Draghi will already be delivering his speech which is scheduled for 8:45am Eastern. At 10:00am we get the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision and just to round things off at 2:00pm it’s Yellen’s turn to deliver this month’s FOMC minutes.

General consensus thus far suggests that the Fed will be hiking rates a little in June. But as always attempting to predict Fed action is a roulette game and what’s being said is primarily aimed at gauging public [...]

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April 24, 2017

Like Clockwork

If you haven’t had a chance to read my most recent momo update then I strongly suggest that you do now as equity markets seem to be catching up with the two main scenarios I had outlined in my bottom line summary. Now if you aren’t a sub then you may have missed out on much of the meat of that post and now may be a good time to join up. PayPal may have been a hurdle for some readers over the past few years and I am very pleased to announce that Evil Speculator now finally accepts regular CC payments as well. So you’re officially fresh out of excuses 

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April 20, 2017

Momo Update W1617

We’ve watched the tape gyrate on a slow downward trajectory for several weeks now and a final resolution, to the up – or down – side, continues to evade us. Which I’m sure has been jittering quite a few nerves out there, especially given that many participants are unaware of or unwilling to embrace the reality of distinct market cycles. Which unlike our seasons seem to come and go in fairly unpredictable patterns, much to everyone’s chagrin. However acceptance of a cyclical market is tantamount to survival as a trader, as has been the recognition of and then response to climate variations throughout our evolutionary history.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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