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December 16, 2015

Fed Hikes 25bps

The Federal Reserve just announced a hike of the federal funds rate of 25bps which now puts it at 0.5%. I wouldn’t call this the end of QE but it’s definitely a good step forward. Even more positive however is what just happened:

Which is absolutely nothing. Equities spiked a little both ways but thus far locust has not descended on our house, I don’t see it raining frogs, and I will let you know about our first born when he finally decides to check in on skype (or not).

This Zero however remains flat as a flounder thus I would caution you guys against trying to play the swings. We still may see a squeeze in either direction once the [...]

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October 15, 2015

Post Session Musings

Today’s session took most of us a bit of surprise. Although we expected a directional change fueled by a high volatility period the bulls managed to run the tape all the way into the close. So what’s going on? Where are we going from here? Are we still in for a sideways shake out?

One of the most important qualities of a successful trader is that of humility. It takes humility to accept the emotional impact of mistakes and plain old losses on a daily basis. We try to limit both as much as possible but we are not robots and no matter how Zen we think we are, a missed (winning) campaign or a few consecutive losses can out of the blue elicit emotions we thought we [...]

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August 28, 2015

Inside The Mind Of A Retail Rat

In a column in the Financial Times at the start of the week, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, whom the Obama Administration passed over to appoint Yellen, argued that it would be folly for the Fed to raise rates. Damn it – this is going to be a boring one again – alright you can do this – this is important, pull yourself together…. Now Ray Dalio, the manager of one of the world’s biggest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, has weighed in on the debate… what the fuck does he know…  arguing that the Fed, rather than tightening policy (that is, raising rates), might well end up easing instead—purchasing bonds and pumping money into the [...]

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January 29, 2015

Early Warning

I hate to burst everyone’s bearish bubble but unless we drop straight down in the next few minutes it looks like the bears are going to fumble this one – again. I just noticed a rather disturbing divergence on the hourly Zero. Wish I had seen it earlier but I’ve got a bunch of Spanish workers crawling all over the place as I’m getting high speed fiber installed in the lair today. Anyway, here it is:

Lookie here – that divergence on the hourly panel is looking pretty ominous – very bad medicine. In addition flat participation suggests the bots are about to take over and the Mole reversal signals are failing. Let’s not be [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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