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April 12, 2017

Market Fragility

I feel rather conflicted about the price action over the past month and quite frankly that’s exactly how I should feel and thus act accordingly. Just take a look at a daily E-Mini chart and compare the March contract (ESH7) with the current front month (ESM7) and tell me what you see.

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December 4, 2015

There Is No Room At The Bottom

In 1959 at Caltech, Dr. Richard Feynman presented the American Physical Society with his classic lecture titled ‘There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom‘, outlining his vision of the future and the possibility of engineering microscopic technology down to the molecular scale. Feynman’s presentation has continued to inspire several generations of biologists, physicists, and chemists to this very day. Only in the recent past however, more than half a century later, are we beginning to harvest the fruits of his vision, as our scientific knowledge and technological capabilities are slowly encroaching into the microscopic world.

Unfortunately however it seems [...]

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December 3, 2015

ECB Rate Decision Drama

Very interesting what just happened here. While many of you guys over in the U.S. were still crawling out of bed Mario Draghi was scheduled to announce the ECB’s rate decision at 7:45am Eastern. Almost exactly five minutes before the announcement the good people running the twitter feed over at FT.com apparently screwed up and sent out a tweet stating ‘ECB leaving rate unchanged in surprising decision‘. A few seconds later, and completely unrelated to that twitter post, my open EUR/USD Scalpius campaign was sent to the woodshed:

The MFE on that campaign was 3R and Scalpius fortunately was already trailing at the 1R mark, which given the huge spread at [...]

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September 18, 2015

The Road To Hell

The biggest news yesterday was not that the Fed once again chickened out and left the federal funds rates untouched at zero. I could have told you that ahead of time. And guess what – I actually did on several occasions. No, real big shocker yesterday was some very carefully worded mention of negative interest rates. Say what? The sheer fact that these three words were uttered by Mrs. Yellen during her address speaks bounds about the growing fear deep inside the bowels of 33 Liberty St.

Who of us would have thought a year ago that we would be entertaining the thought of NIRP instead of raising interest rates perhaps for the second or third time by now? And that [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Cognitive DissonanceCognitive Dissonance
    I had to think long and hard about what exactly to post today without insulting at least half of my readership. As you know I have … more
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