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April 13, 2016

Massive Momo Update

No matter if you are a hard nosed trader or a casual investor, every once in a while it’s advisable to detach yourself from the daily grind, sit back, grab a hot beverage, and parse through some long term charts. Although the don’t affect our daily entries here at Evil Speculator, they do give us a better view of what type of market we are navigating and thus how we may have to adjust our trading patterns. After all – context is everything. What may have worked very well in 2012 most likely hasn’t worked in the past year or so. When markets change traders have to change with it or find themselves on an extended losing streak.

I have been talking [...]

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December 4, 2015

There Is No Room At The Bottom

In 1959 at Caltech, Dr. Richard Feynman presented the American Physical Society with his classic lecture titled ‘There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom‘, outlining his vision of the future and the possibility of engineering microscopic technology down to the molecular scale. Feynman’s presentation has continued to inspire several generations of biologists, physicists, and chemists to this very day. Only in the recent past however, more than half a century later, are we beginning to harvest the fruits of his vision, as our scientific knowledge and technological capabilities are slowly encroaching into the microscopic world.

Unfortunately however it seems [...]

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December 3, 2015

ECB Rate Decision Drama

Very interesting what just happened here. While many of you guys over in the U.S. were still crawling out of bed Mario Draghi was scheduled to announce the ECB’s rate decision at 7:45am Eastern. Almost exactly five minutes before the announcement the good people running the twitter feed over at FT.com apparently screwed up and sent out a tweet stating ‘ECB leaving rate unchanged in surprising decision‘. A few seconds later, and completely unrelated to that twitter post, my open EUR/USD Scalpius campaign was sent to the woodshed:

The MFE on that campaign was 3R and Scalpius fortunately was already trailing at the 1R mark, which given the huge spread at [...]

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September 18, 2015

The Road To Hell

The biggest news yesterday was not that the Fed once again chickened out and left the federal funds rates untouched at zero. I could have told you that ahead of time. And guess what – I actually did on several occasions. No, real big shocker yesterday was some very carefully worded mention of negative interest rates. Say what? The sheer fact that these three words were uttered by Mrs. Yellen during her address speaks bounds about the growing fear deep inside the bowels of 33 Liberty St.

Who of us would have thought a year ago that we would be entertaining the thought of NIRP instead of raising interest rates perhaps for the second or third time by now? And that [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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