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December 3, 2015

ECB Rate Decision Drama

Very interesting what just happened here. While many of you guys over in the U.S. were still crawling out of bed Mario Draghi was scheduled to announce the ECB’s rate decision at 7:45am Eastern. Almost exactly five minutes before the announcement the good people running the twitter feed over at FT.com apparently screwed up and sent out a tweet stating ‘ECB leaving rate unchanged in surprising decision‘. A few seconds later, and completely unrelated to that twitter post, my open EUR/USD Scalpius campaign was sent to the woodshed:

The MFE on that campaign was 3R and Scalpius fortunately was already trailing at the 1R mark, which given the huge spread at [...]

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September 18, 2015

The Road To Hell

The biggest news yesterday was not that the Fed once again chickened out and left the federal funds rates untouched at zero. I could have told you that ahead of time. And guess what – I actually did on several occasions. No, real big shocker yesterday was some very carefully worded mention of negative interest rates. Say what? The sheer fact that these three words were uttered by Mrs. Yellen during her address speaks bounds about the growing fear deep inside the bowels of 33 Liberty St.

Who of us would have thought a year ago that we would be entertaining the thought of NIRP instead of raising interest rates perhaps for the second or third time by now? And that [...]

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July 17, 2015

Mind Hacking

It’s Opex Friday and instead of posting our usual line up of symbols I decided to explore some of the ruminations which followed an epiphany I experienced earlier this morning. Just like many of you one I have slowly developed an now ingrained habit of reaching for my tablet right after waking up. My rational justification is that of an online entrepreneur and professional trader who needs to remain connected, and if nothing else wants to assure that nothing urgent has come up which may require my attention. The truth of the matter however is more along the lines of me enjoying a few more lazy minutes reading in my cozy bed, especially when it’s cold outside.

Now [...]

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October 28, 2014

Don’t Be Afraid Of The Boogeyman

It’s fascinating to me what passes for financial reporting these days. This morning I came across a little jewel by Mark Ackerman who once again blames the big bad Market Boogeyman for the fact that equities have not crashed and burned this fall. I guess it’s that time of the year again – and no I’m not talking about Halloween. After all October is high SKEW month and how dare equities NOT fall off the plate six years and counting! Be this as it may – we are used to seeing our daily dose of doomsday reports and most of it we simply fade out for the useless and unproductive noise it is.

However articles like this follow a cognitive [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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