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October 17, 2016

Well Positioned But Skeptical

Last week’s decision to hold through a trading bot driven low participation reversal higher appears to have been a good one as of right now. At least the campaign managed to survive the weekend and that’s no small feat in this volatile market environment, which incidentally is why I am choosing my words very carefully. The ides of October often bring us stormy weather as well as volatile markets. Given ongoing fears of a large scale sell-off another momo update seemed appropriate.

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December 14, 2015

Expect Nothing And Accept Everything

That will be my motto for this last full trading week of the year as we are at the same time approaching the most significant fork in the financial road of 2015. As I am sure you are all aware this Wednesday at 2:00pm Eastern the Federal Reserve will issue its verdict on whether to make good on a year long promise to finally raise its benchmark interest rate (i.e. fed funds rate). The current consensus is an increase from 25bps to 37.5bps – a meager increase of merely 1/8 of a percent. Nevertheless the increase would be the first since the financial crisis of 2008 and would be perceived as setting the stage for further tightening down the line.

You probably noticed that [...]

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September 18, 2015

The Road To Hell

The biggest news yesterday was not that the Fed once again chickened out and left the federal funds rates untouched at zero. I could have told you that ahead of time. And guess what – I actually did on several occasions. No, real big shocker yesterday was some very carefully worded mention of negative interest rates. Say what? The sheer fact that these three words were uttered by Mrs. Yellen during her address speaks bounds about the growing fear deep inside the bowels of 33 Liberty St.

Who of us would have thought a year ago that we would be entertaining the thought of NIRP instead of raising interest rates perhaps for the second or third time by now? And that [...]

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July 6, 2015

Only The Paranoid Survive

Originally attributed to Any Grove, the founder of Intel Corporation, this has remained one of my favorite quotes and one that has kept me out of trouble over and over again in my time spent as a trader. It always pays to watch your six and if you think you live in turbulent times after following the ongoing Grexit saga over the weekend then think again. Here’s a quote by Andy which summarizes the first twenty years of his life:

By the time I was twenty, I had lived through a Hungarian Fascist dictatorship, German military occupation, the Nazis’ “Final Solution,” the siege of Budapest by the Soviet Red Army, a period of chaotic democracy in the years [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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