It is the first trading session in November and that means it’s time for another momo update. What I’m seeing across the board reaffirms the current low participation holding pattern which I proposed in my last update. Various attempts to break even modest support zones have failed and in the process consumed almost all short term bearish momentum over the course of the past few weeks. Although I am still holding short positions from near ES 2150 my perspective now has shifted toward short term bullish and long term bearish. Let me tell you why.
Last week’s decision to hold through a trading bot driven low participation reversal higher appears to have been a good one as of right now. At least the campaign managed to survive the weekend and that’s no small feat in this volatile market environment, which incidentally is why I am choosing my words very carefully. The ides of October often bring us stormy weather as well as volatile markets. Given ongoing fears of a large scale sell-off another momo update seemed appropriate.
I swear, I can’t leave for more than a day without the market throwing a tantrum. What quickly has become known as the Fed’s ‘One-Two Punch‘ symbols across the board were thrown into a spastic gyrations last Friday courtesy of contradictory statements issued by various FOMC members. Frankly I’m not sure what all the excitement was about. It’s not that we haven’t been there before as Mrs. Yellen and Co. appear to be adjusting monetary strategy on the fly each month based on arbitrary market measures.
People keep writing me asking if this rally is real or if they should be paying attention to all that bearish talk they keep seeing on the financial news. Quick answer: Yes, of course it’s REAL because it’s happening. And you already know my general views on listening to anything coming out of the MSM. Whatever they are telling you has little bearing with reality and usually only serves as a plausible explanation of events triggered by factors far outside our horizon. So in other words – it’s bullpucky and you’re better off watching your goldfish for valuable clues as to where the market may be heading next. Or let me make it even easier for you: