A few days ago I got a bit frustrated thinking that I had missed several break out patterns which in hindsight looked hard to miss. Since then however almost all have turned on a dime and I am happy to report that I have already canceled my e-Bay order of a slightly used Japanese seppuku training kit.
Ti’s the season and it’s time to bring back an old tradition here at Evil Speculator: our special lair baked market outlook scenarios. Reason being that what I’m seeing unfold in equities opens the possibility for large outlier moves on the immediate time horizon, which means either by Friday or next Tuesday at the latest. Let’s get to it:
‘May you live in interesting times’ is an apocryphal expression often incorrectly attributed to being an ancient Chinese curse. Whoever actually coined it we will probably never know, but it’s clear to me that he or she was probably of advanced age and, having experienced a crisis or two, understood quite well the potential disruptive effects of large scale events.
I just love statistics, which I in part attribute to my anal retentive Teutonic background. I’m not even that good in math but show me any graph and it’s like intellectual p0rn to me – I can’t resist. After building our most handy Evil Speculator statistics monger I spent hours looking through literally hundreds of charts. The most salient of course being the Spiders (SPY) as it gives us a pretty good historical perspective on seasonal trends on equities as a whole. So let’s see where we heading, at least statistically speaking: