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August 18, 2017

We Are In Good Shape

I can’t believe it’s Friday already, this year seems to be passing by me like a flash and there never seem to be enough hours in the day. Burning the candle on both ends doesn’t really help matters either as it only leads to less productivity afterward. Perhaps if all that science fiction one day turns into science fact and we get to live another 50 or 100 years then I may just be able to complete all those projects and various studies I constantly seem to be immersed in. But at least years of hard work continues to pay off today. Let’s review where we are:

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August 15, 2017

Skeptical

Something doesn’t add up here. We got our VIX Buy Signal confirmation and that is short to medium term bullish for equities (again, the buy refers to the latter, not the former). However I’m smelling a potential rat as the Dollar finally looks like it may be ready to squeeze the heck out of the shorts. And usually that is not exactly bullish for equities, is it now? Let’s look at some key markets and then decide the best course of action:

Alright, so there’s the lower close on the VIX which, per the rules discussed yesterday, officially puts a confirmed VIX Buy Signal on the map. No, there won’t be a parade, sorry. First up it’s too [...]

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August 14, 2017

VIX Buy Signal Issued

It seems we once more have been spared from nuclear annihilation. Although if  you somehow got clickbaited into any of the MSM shill pieces on North Korea then you’re probably reading this cowered below your bunkbed in your make shift nuclear bunker. I for one couldn’t be less worried, as years of consuming massive amounts of GM wheat beer has effectively rendered me impervious to any type of radiation. I don’t even use a flashlight at night anymore as certain body parts have started to emit an orange glow.

Alright you market mutants, it’s time to pay attention. There is a pretty good chance that we’re going to see a bonafide confirmed VIX [...]

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August 10, 2017

Keep Your Powder Dry

Considering that equities are still trading a bagel throw away from all time highs it was fascinating to observe a 28% rise in implied volatility over the past week. Now I concede that current levels are probably more in line with where the VIX should be given that we’re heading into a seasonally bearish market period of the year. August has acquired a bit of notoriety over the years due to a handful of negative outliers, however on average it is September and not August that you should be worried about (see Tuesday’s post on the subject).

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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