The 2nd round of the French presidential elections almost seemed procedural to me in that Macron was clearly the front runner plus it was clear that various voting blocks would coalesce in order to prevent Le Pen from gaining a majority. So suffice to say that Monsieur Macron’s overwhelming 65% win wasn’t exactly a big surprise to me. Which is exactly why I had been accumulating a big stack of € cash ahead of the final round. Although I anticipated a bit of weakness after the election I did not think we would find ourselves near the lower edge of the current island again.
Yes, we are already three days into May but this kind of analysis takes a good mixture of time, attention, caffeine, and inspiration. But I think your patience will be well rewarded as we’re going to look at some rather fascinating charts. Now two weeks ago I posted a quick update which suggested that we may be at short term lows (on a daily basis) and that a reversal to the upside had good odds. Which is exactly what happened the Monday after when equities painted a big gap higher. You’re welcome, but thanks don’t pay the bills, so instead just sign up as a paying member and we’ll call it even
Last week’s gap upwards has left market participants catching their breath and looking for a sign of future direction. As we are near all time highs there isn’t much technical context to hang our hats on, and until new context is established everyone is kind of stuck in limbo. Of course withholding new context by keeping the tape inside a narrow range is a great opportunity for market makers to make some easy money by bitch slapping over eager participants around a bit.
Draghi is busy kicking the Euro all over the place right now and posting setups in a volatile situation prior to the open isn’t exactly my favorite pastime. Plus I’m currently considering seppuku as I’m watching my favorable exchange rate slowly swirl the big forex toilet bowl.