Yes, we are already three days into May but this kind of analysis takes a good mixture of time, attention, caffeine, and inspiration. But I think your patience will be well rewarded as we’re going to look at some rather fascinating charts. Now two weeks ago I posted a quick update which suggested that we may be at short term lows (on a daily basis) and that a reversal to the upside had good odds. Which is exactly what happened the Monday after when equities painted a big gap higher. You’re welcome, but thanks don’t pay the bills, so instead just sign up as a paying member and we’ll call it even
We’ve watched the tape gyrate on a slow downward trajectory for several weeks now and a final resolution, to the up – or down – side, continues to evade us. Which I’m sure has been jittering quite a few nerves out there, especially given that many participants are unaware of or unwilling to embrace the reality of distinct market cycles. Which unlike our seasons seem to come and go in fairly unpredictable patterns, much to everyone’s chagrin. However acceptance of a cyclical market is tantamount to survival as a trader, as has been the recognition of and then response to climate variations throughout our evolutionary history.
I feel rather conflicted about the price action over the past month and quite frankly that’s exactly how I should feel and thus act accordingly. Just take a look at a daily E-Mini chart and compare the March contract (ESH7) with the current front month (ESM7) and tell me what you see.
It’s the last session of the month and that means you’re getting treated to a massive momo update. It’s been a long standing tradition here at Evil Speculator and I rarely miss an opportunity to step back and look at the big picture. To me personally the process of compiling it helps me gain a deeper understanding of what drives the ongoing market phase and where we may be heading next. However this time things are a bit more tricky as technically speaking we seem to be in uncharted territory (pun intended).