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December 5, 2017

Confirmation Bias

When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is that we tend to see mostly what we want to see, facts, evidence, or reason be damned. Also known as ‘confirmation bias’ this factory installed feature of the human condition seems to particularly live up to its promise when it comes to the trading racket. Throw in a few wild swings and the bulls will regard each drive lower as an obvious dip buying opportunity while the bears see it as clear confirmation that the prevailing trend is weakening.

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November 14, 2017

Interesting Times

‘May you live in interesting times’ is an apocryphal expression often incorrectly attributed to being an ancient Chinese curse. Whoever actually coined it we will probably never know, but it’s clear to me that he or she was probably of advanced age and, having experienced a crisis or two, understood quite well the potential disruptive effects of large scale events.

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October 11, 2017

FOMC Day Momo Musings

As if we hadn’t already suffered enough lately, today’s event roster includes this month’s FOMC minutes being delivered around 2:00pm Eastern (18:00 GMT) plus ECB board member Peter Praet delivering a speech shortly after. Which means markets across the board will most likely be stuck in nail-biting hibernation mode until then. To keep my rowdy rabble entertained I’ll do a quick and dirty momo update as I’m seeing some interesting developments.

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September 15, 2017

Tulips Anyone?

I bought some bitcoin a few years ago at about $440.- and kind of had forgotten about it since as I only had been interested in digital currencies as a possible alternative payment method here at Evil Speculator. However after some research into the space I discarded the idea for two reasons: For one should BTC ever fail then switching recurring subs back to the old greenback would be problematic. And second the gyrations even back then made my head spin and I didn’t consider it ready for prime time.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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