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February 9, 2018

The End Of The Beginning

This may sound a bit strange coming from a born German (and now proud U.S. citizen) but I’m actually quite a fan of Sir Winston Churchill as I was always fascinated by his irreverent personality. He had a very interesting upbringing as a child due to a rather complicated relationship with his then renowned father. What’s most compelling however, and what stands in stark contrast to the so called political leaders of today, is how he actively sought out seemingly unsurmountable challenges and then faced them head-on and without compromise throughout his entire life. He is remembered by many timeless quotes but here is one of my favorites:

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January 19, 2018

Tickling The Dragon’s Tail

So we’re going to do a momo update today and I think it’s going to blow your mind. But first let me briefly explain what happened this morning which led me to look at those momentum and volatility charts in the first place. If you may recall yesterday’s lottery ticket on the E-Mini went bust by just a tick or two after which the SPX actually ended up bouncing back.

So I look at UVOL and it looks pretty damn bearish except of course for the late session candle painting pump. So of course I’m starting to wonder if we may be sloping over in the near term future, because with the Dollar heading into Italian Lira territory we should have busted [...]

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December 5, 2017

Confirmation Bias

When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is that we tend to see mostly what we want to see, facts, evidence, or reason be damned. Also known as ‘confirmation bias’ this factory installed feature of the human condition seems to particularly live up to its promise when it comes to the trading racket. Throw in a few wild swings and the bulls will regard each drive lower as an obvious dip buying opportunity while the bears see it as clear confirmation that the prevailing trend is weakening.

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November 14, 2017

Interesting Times

‘May you live in interesting times’ is an apocryphal expression often incorrectly attributed to being an ancient Chinese curse. Whoever actually coined it we will probably never know, but it’s clear to me that he or she was probably of advanced age and, having experienced a crisis or two, understood quite well the potential disruptive effects of large scale events.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Anchoring And The BandwagonAnchoring And The Bandwagon
    I’ve been tangentially following the news at a safe distance over the past week and frankly felt tempted to pinch myself every once in a while, just … more
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