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April 29, 2016

April Momo Update

Today is going to be a big day for equities. As it’s the last session of the month, the candle we paint today will be on record and add another piece to the puzzle that we have slowly been putting together over the past few months. But let’s backtrack for a moment and pick this one up later. This morning I came across a brief interview with Art Cashin which gave me much pause. Disclaimer: I usually don’t watch MSNBC or any financial news but had followed a pertinent link in my online UBS account out of sheer curiosity. So Bob Pisani kind of throws this softball at Art saying that nothing really seems to be able to break or slow down this market. And I was actually a [...]

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April 13, 2016

Massive Momo Update

No matter if you are a hard nosed trader or a casual investor, every once in a while it’s advisable to detach yourself from the daily grind, sit back, grab a hot beverage, and parse through some long term charts. Although the don’t affect our daily entries here at Evil Speculator, they do give us a better view of what type of market we are navigating and thus how we may have to adjust our trading patterns. After all – context is everything. What may have worked very well in 2012 most likely hasn’t worked in the past year or so. When markets change traders have to change with it or find themselves on an extended losing streak.

I have been talking [...]

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January 11, 2016

You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet

I seriously doubt that the average market participant realizes the magnitude of the devastation that lays ahead. It is our human nature to project forward based on recent events – a common cognitive bias which can easily lead to painful losses during regular market conditions. But what we are facing over the coming weeks and months will register several standard deviations beyond current worst case scenarios, at least based on activity/pricing I’m currently seeing in the option chains.

We have a lot of material to cover this morning. So grab a cup of your favorite morning brew and pay close attention. Yes, there will be a test.

Let’s start with [...]

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May 9, 2014

I Know What You’re Thinking

It’s pretty easy to predict human behavior once you realize that it all boils down to three primary motivations: sex, fear, and greed. When it comes to predicting the market sentiment of human participants you simply exclude the first one and evaluate the prevalence of the other two. For behind the veil of intellectual sophistication greed and fear are the operating emotions that drive our financial markets. Quite obviously you will find an abundance of fear near market bottoms and ready supply of greed near market tops. So just do the opposite, right? Yes, if it just was so easy we’d all be swimming in ill-gotten coin. The problem is that market tops take time – [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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