The best thing I ever did as a trader was to completely ignore the news and simply focus on my technical analysis and system rules instead. A policy that not only has kept me out of a laundry list of bear traps over the years but also allowed me to take advantage of entry opportunities while the majority of participants were left rubbing their backside.
Yes, we are already three days into May but this kind of analysis takes a good mixture of time, attention, caffeine, and inspiration. But I think your patience will be well rewarded as we’re going to look at some rather fascinating charts. Now two weeks ago I posted a quick update which suggested that we may be at short term lows (on a daily basis) and that a reversal to the upside had good odds. Which is exactly what happened the Monday after when equities painted a big gap higher. You’re welcome, but thanks don’t pay the bills, so instead just sign up as a paying member and we’ll call it even
We’ve watched the tape gyrate on a slow downward trajectory for several weeks now and a final resolution, to the up – or down – side, continues to evade us. Which I’m sure has been jittering quite a few nerves out there, especially given that many participants are unaware of or unwilling to embrace the reality of distinct market cycles. Which unlike our seasons seem to come and go in fairly unpredictable patterns, much to everyone’s chagrin. However acceptance of a cyclical market is tantamount to survival as a trader, as has been the recognition of and then response to climate variations throughout our evolutionary history.
I feel rather conflicted about the price action over the past month and quite frankly that’s exactly how I should feel and thus act accordingly. Just take a look at a daily E-Mini chart and compare the March contract (ESH7) with the current front month (ESM7) and tell me what you see.