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February 2, 2016

Too Many Damn Setups

I’m having way too much fun this morning, which accounts for my somewhat belated post. There literally seem to be juicy setups crawling out of the woodwork and I just kept adding new ones while reducing exposure on others in order to reduce correlation risk. So without further ado let’s jump right in:

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January 28, 2016

Bear Markets Are Hard

Bear markets in particular have a way of wearing on you. Sure they look great in hindsight, leaving little doubt about how you one could have easily banked millions. And quite frankly there is actually some truth in that (we’ll cover that later), but in reality most traders usually get chopped to pieces trying to time the endless preceding gyrations, only then to watch the tape run away without them.

In my time running this blog I have gradually shifted away from posting long winded tutorials as people’s attention span seems to be inversely correlated with the amount of information they are being exposed to. So today let’s look at two very simple ways [...]

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January 14, 2016

The Whites Of Their Eyes

The famous order “Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” is a battle cry which became known in stories about the battle at Bunker Hill which was fought on June 17, 1775, during the Siege of Boston in the early stages of the American Revolutionary War.

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January 11, 2016

You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet

I seriously doubt that the average market participant realizes the magnitude of the devastation that lays ahead. It is our human nature to project forward based on recent events – a common cognitive bias which can easily lead to painful losses during regular market conditions. But what we are facing over the coming weeks and months will register several standard deviations beyond current worst case scenarios, at least based on activity/pricing I’m currently seeing in the option chains.

We have a lot of material to cover this morning. So grab a cup of your favorite morning brew and pay close attention. Yes, there will be a test.

Let’s start with [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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