I don’t want to sound overly dramatic but the fate of the Dollar for the remainder of this year and most likely well into 2018 will be decided tomorrow when chairwoman Janet Yellen will announce whether or not the Federal Reserve is finally ready to kick start a reduction in the $4.4 Trillion balance sheet it accumulated over the past decade.
I bought some bitcoin a few years ago at about $440.- and kind of had forgotten about it since as I only had been interested in digital currencies as a possible alternative payment method here at Evil Speculator. However after some research into the space I discarded the idea for two reasons: For one should BTC ever fail then switching recurring subs back to the old greenback would be problematic. And second the gyrations even back then made my head spin and I didn’t consider it ready for prime time.
I’m seeing an increasing amount of bearish sentiment here in the comment section as well as across the financial media. Which of course is no big surprise given that we are smack middle in the most negative leaning market phase of the year. However just because a door is open does not necessarily mean the bear is going to walk through it. Let’s not forget that equity indices just painted new record highs all seasonal bias to the contrary.
I noticed something on the VIX this morning which inspired me to dig a bit deeper. It started with the realization that the VIX has experienced a marked increase in realized volatility (yes RV in IV) over the course of this year, whilst at the same time managing to drop to new all time lows of 8.84. Wall of worry indeed, especially given that the E-Mini is already pushing into new virgin territory as I am typing this.