Bear markets in particular have a way of wearing on you. Sure they look great in hindsight, leaving little doubt about how you one could have easily banked millions. And quite frankly there is actually some truth in that (we’ll cover that later), but in reality most traders usually get chopped to pieces trying to time the endless preceding gyrations, only then to watch the tape run away without them.
In my time running this blog I have gradually shifted away from posting long winded tutorials as people’s attention span seems to be inversely correlated with the amount of information they are being exposed to. So today let’s look at two very simple ways [...]
I seriously doubt that the average market participant realizes the magnitude of the devastation that lays ahead. It is our human nature to project forward based on recent events – a common cognitive bias which can easily lead to painful losses during regular market conditions. But what we are facing over the coming weeks and months will register several standard deviations beyond current worst case scenarios, at least based on activity/pricing I’m currently seeing in the option chains.
We have a lot of material to cover this morning. So grab a cup of your favorite morning brew and pay close attention. Yes, there will be a test.
Let’s start with [...]
Conceding we have very little technical context right now I however do love the short term panel on the E-Mini right now. Without further ado – here’s our evil scheme for the day: Grab a small short position here until about 1960 (we’ll have to watch the Zero after the open). If 1960 gives then I’m long with a stop below the current spike low near 1940.
The fear is literally oozing out of my charts right now. Hedge fund redemptions are on the increase, various funds are closing, banks are allegedly buying puts on other banks. Retail has been heading to the exits a long time ago, even here in the comment section it’s been suspiciously quiet in the past few weeks.
And who could blame you guys? After all we’ve got Mr. VIX slowly creeping higher and momo divergences are popping up everywhere. The Dollar is taking it up the rear and the Euro is back with a vengeance squeezing the shorts.
Here for example is the NYA50/NYA200 ratio. Boy, that is one scary chart!
VXV:VIX ratio – [...]