I don’t expect that many of you are spending much time trading anymore and that you’re probably busy with last minute Christmas preparations. Now before you accuse me of forgetting about the remaining 77% of the world’s population remember that a vast majority of readers are located either in the U.S., Australia, or Western Europe. Plus we trade U.S. markets which still observe Christian holidays. And last but not least – I’m probably the least politically correct SOB you’ll ever have the misfortune of running into
Now as today also marks my last active trading session of the year I thought I’ll treat you all to one final momo update. [...]
If you are a trend trader then past two weeks will most likely turn out to be your most productive ones of the year. As the old adage goes: The trend is your friend until it ends. Of course you cannot help but wonder if the end is in sight, after all we’ve come a long way since early November. So let’s talk about that and add a bit more context which I believe may be of value if you’re still holding long (or are anxiously waiting for an opportunity to go short).
If you have been visiting regularly then you probably recall some of my earlier posts on realized volatility . For the rest of you here’s a quick recap as it’s important to understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.
We don’t have much to work with right now as my charting universe separates into two groups right now. The first one is on a burn (e.g. Euro pairs and various commodities) and the second is parked in sideways mode (e.g. precious metals and equities). Can’t squeeze blood from a stone, as they say…