If you are a trend trader then past two weeks will most likely turn out to be your most productive ones of the year. As the old adage goes: The trend is your friend until it ends. Of course you cannot help but wonder if the end is in sight, after all we’ve come a long way since early November. So let’s talk about that and add a bit more context which I believe may be of value if you’re still holding long (or are anxiously waiting for an opportunity to go short).
If you have been visiting regularly then you probably recall some of my earlier posts on realized volatility . For the rest of you here’s a quick recap as it’s important to understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.
We don’t have much to work with right now as my charting universe separates into two groups right now. The first one is on a burn (e.g. Euro pairs and various commodities) and the second is parked in sideways mode (e.g. precious metals and equities). Can’t squeeze blood from a stone, as they say…
Make no mistake, the real loser of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was not Hillary Clinton. No, it was nearly the entire Western mainstream media which up to the final moment last night clung to a political fairytale it tried so very hard to convince its readers over the past two years. No matter whether you are a Hillary or a Trump supporter and no matter how you feel about the 45th president of the United States as a person, this is something that should deeply upset and worry you long after your current euphoria or depression has subsided and given way to your daily routine.