We’ve watched the tape gyrate on a slow downward trajectory for several weeks now and a final resolution, to the up – or down – side, continues to evade us. Which I’m sure has been jittering quite a few nerves out there, especially given that many participants are unaware of or unwilling to embrace the reality of distinct market cycles. Which unlike our seasons seem to come and go in fairly unpredictable patterns, much to everyone’s chagrin. However acceptance of a cyclical market is tantamount to survival as a trader, as has been the recognition of and then response to climate variations throughout our evolutionary history.
Apparently the odds of seeing any type of resolution before the long Easter holiday weekend are low (what are the odds I will eat my words on that one?). Which gives me an opportunity to dazzle you guys with some rather thrilling implied volatility (IV) charts. So strap yourself in and make sure you do not extend your hands or legs outside the carriage until the ride has come to a full stop.
It’s the last session of the month and that means you’re getting treated to a massive momo update. It’s been a long standing tradition here at Evil Speculator and I rarely miss an opportunity to step back and look at the big picture. To me personally the process of compiling it helps me gain a deeper understanding of what drives the ongoing market phase and where we may be heading next. However this time things are a bit more tricky as technically speaking we seem to be in uncharted territory (pun intended).
One of the reasons why I entertained the mere notion of an E-Mini long campaign over three weeks ago was that, while market momentum certainly appeared to be maturing, there clearly was plenty of remaining potential for a continuation of the advance. Or in other words, don’t ever trade against a rally just because in your infinite wisdom you have come to believe that it has gone far enough. Lacking any clues to the contrary always stick with the ongoing trend.