People keep writing me asking if this rally is real or if they should be paying attention to all that bearish talk they keep seeing on the financial news. Quick answer: Yes, of course it’s REAL because it’s happening. And you already know my general views on listening to anything coming out of the MSM. Whatever they are telling you has little bearing with reality and usually only serves as a plausible explanation of events triggered by factors far outside our horizon. So in other words – it’s bullpucky and you’re better off watching your goldfish for valuable clues as to where the market may be heading next. Or let me make it even easier for you:
It is hot and it is humid over here in Valencia. You want to know how hot? The other day a poodle’s tail caught fire just waiting in the sun. The more frantically he was wiggling his tail the brighter it burned. Fortunately his master was nearby and was sweating so much (overweight Brit) that he was able to put the fire out with his bare hands. True story! Well, maybe not – but that’s definitely how it feels over here. Fortunately the evil lair is equipped with an industrial strength A/C unit which will continuously run on its polar bear setting until late August. If the power goes down I’m dead meat as I have a high tolerance for heat but a very low one for [...]
There is something markedly different about the current sell off and I have spent the last few hours assembling pieces of the puzzle into what I hope will be a useful perspective on where we are heading. As you know the analysis of volatility patterns has become somewhat of a hobby of mine and the more I delve into this aspect of price behavior the more fascinating it becomes.
Today is going to be a big day for equities. As it’s the last session of the month, the candle we paint today will be on record and add another piece to the puzzle that we have slowly been putting together over the past few months. But let’s backtrack for a moment and pick this one up later. This morning I came across a brief interview with Art Cashin which gave me much pause. Disclaimer: I usually don’t watch MSNBC or any financial news but had followed a pertinent link in my online UBS account out of sheer curiosity. So Bob Pisani kind of throws this softball at Art saying that nothing really seems to be able to break or slow down this market. And I was actually a [...]