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November 21, 2016

Post Election Volatility Changes In Equities

If you have been visiting regularly then you probably recall some of my earlier posts on realized volatility [1][2]. For the rest of you here’s a quick recap as it’s important to understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.

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November 17, 2016

Slim Pickings

We don’t have much to work with right now as my charting universe separates into two groups right now. The first one is on a burn (e.g. Euro pairs and various commodities) and the second is parked in sideways mode (e.g. precious metals and equities). Can’t squeeze blood from a stone, as they say…

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November 9, 2016

Dewey Defeats Trump

Make no mistake, the real loser of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was not Hillary Clinton. No, it was nearly the entire Western mainstream media which up to the final moment last night clung to a political fairytale it tried so very hard to convince its readers over the past two years. No matter whether you are a Hillary or a Trump supporter and no matter how you feel about the 45th president of the United States as a person, this is something that should deeply upset and worry you long after your current euphoria or depression has subsided and given way to your daily routine.

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November 1, 2016

Bullish Bearish

It is the first trading session in November and that means it’s time for another momo update. What I’m seeing across the board reaffirms the current low participation holding pattern which I proposed in my last update. Various attempts to break even modest support zones have failed and in the process consumed almost all short term bearish momentum over the course of the past few weeks. Although I am still holding short positions from near ES 2150 my perspective now has shifted toward short term bullish and long term bearish. Let me tell you why.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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