Considering that equities are still trading a bagel throw away from all time highs it was fascinating to observe a 28% rise in implied volatility over the past week. Now I concede that current levels are probably more in line with where the VIX should be given that we’re heading into a seasonally bearish market period of the year. August has acquired a bit of notoriety over the years due to a handful of negative outliers, however on average it is September and not August that you should be worried about (see Tuesday’s post on the subject).
Forget it, you will never be able to outrun a bear, no matter how fast (you think) you are. Bears have repeatedly been observed to not only achieve running speeds of about 35 mph but also maintain that pace for over two miles without as much as breaking a sweat. Compare that with the fastest human being on earth, Usain Bolt, who is able to reach a measly top speed of only 28 mph and that for about 100 meters plus minus. Lesson learned today: Never ever attempt to outrun a bear (or Usain Bolt), try to use your head instead.
We have a small cause for celebration today as this will officially be post #4000 here on Evil Speculator. Which incidentally was launched all the way back in early August of 2008 – almost exactly nine years ago. It was a time of wonder back then and electricity had just been invented a few months earlier. I still remember having to take an Uber horse buggy to the evil lair in the morning, on muddy unpaved roads seamed with beggars and packs of rabid wild dogs. Trading was done by telegraph in encrypted morse code and our favorite way of shorting commodity futures was by arson of a hapless local grain farmer. Those were the days! Quite a few of you regulars from back when are [...]
We’re half way through the year and the upcoming 4th of July weekend officially marks the beginning of the long awaited vacation season. Since most of you will be either mentally or physically absent tomorrow let’s devote whatever remains of our collective attention span to a comprehensive perspective on where we are on the momo front.