Greece Saga Precautions

It seems that finally Greece has gone past the point of no return and events are quickly escalating. If you truly care about all the gory details then look no further than ZeroEdge which is literally bursting out of the seams with extra sarcastic coverage of the gloom & doom that is bound to descend on us starting Sunday night. Your guess of what happens next is good as mine but I’ve hired my own consultants and per Dr. Venkman the outlook is pretty grim:

So before you all resort to cannibalism (first dips on Skynard) let’s take some basic pre-cautions in anticipation of some massive volatility across Forex which will most likely affect bonds, equities, and various futures contracts as well.  First up, don’t be surprised if your broker may only accept close orders tonight and tomorrow – clearly the industry has learned from the Swiss Franc debacle a few months ago.

Down here at the lair I have turned on CrazyIvan but strongly caution you subs from taking any entries until things normalize, whenever that may be. On the Thor front I will not put up any new setups tonight but revisit the situation on Monday before the roll over. Perhaps this will blow over quickly after some last minute deal but I won’t risk any exposure until we know for sure.

Message to Greece: Good riddance! I have nothing against the country or its people – quite on the contrary (although I’m partial to Moussaka). One of my relatives is actually renovating a villa in Santorini and I plan to visit soon (with my American passport – ahem). But with all due respect – I was sick of hearing about this dreaded Greek saga five years ago and since then have long ceased to care. We’ve teased this out beyond anyone’s pain threshold and we all could do well without hearing about Greece at least a week or two.

Message To All Greeks: Good luck – you’ll need it. But heck – you still have a gorgeous country at your disposal and things could be worse (just ask any Greek over 75). This may be an opportunity to turn the corner and rebuild your nation without outside interference. As the saying (kind of) goes: Be careful what you wish you for because you may have just gotten it.

CrazyIvan News: A few weeks ago I posted about some long overdue statistics I had run on my CrazyIvan results. Turns out that inside periods are a complete waste of time over the long term (as I had long suspected) and I also managed to identify a list of the highest scoring entry patterns. I have now removed those dreaded IPs and today deployed a new version which features a filter that will only permit the 12 highest scoring entry patterns. That in turn however will have implications on how we trade CrazyIvan going forward.

  • Each respective symbol will be taking a lot less entries on a daily basis. I can’t give you exact numbers but I expect about 1/3 of the entries in comparison with the old system.
  • Given the that I felt that we needed to add a bit more opportunity. So I have made the following changes:
    • Added the following futures contracts: Corn, the 10-Year Bond futures, Natural Gas, and the S&P E-Mini.
    • Added the following forex symbols: USD/CAD, EUR/JPY, NZD/USD
    • Removed AUD/JPY. It’s a minor one and I don’t see any advantage over the EUR/JPY for example.

For the coming weeks I recommend that you trade the new futures symbols with only 0.5R position sizes until we are sure that they flow as expected. I don’t anticipate any problems but always prefer to err on the cautious side. The new Forex symbols shouldn’t give us any trouble and those can be traded full steam ahead.

That’s it – I’m off to my training class and then I’ll have plenty more work on my plate before Monday. See you guys on the other side.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

STFO Wednesday Morning Briefing

Yes, it’s that time of the quarter again – today we will be graced with another FOMC interest rate decision and as usual we should expect a lot of snooze followed by wild gyrations around 2:00pm EST. By the way FOMC stands for Federal Market Oracle Commission, they just swapped two of the letters.

Imagine a group of  financial high priests in silly costumes locked into a room without food, water, ventilation, or a toilet for two days meditating on how to best to destroy our currency. Which explains a lot of what has transpired over the past two decades. Anyway, whatever happens today – for me this is a ‘stay the fuck out’ day. I won’t touch anything with a ten foot pole until after the announcement.

Unfortunately the spoos have dropped overnight – if you partook in yesterday’s jump higher then you have been robbed of a valuable profit buffer. Obviously it would have been more helpful if we had stayed near the 100-hour overnight. I don’t enjoy exposing myself to wild swings without having some profits under my belly. If we drop from here then it’ll be fast slicing through all support clusters – same on the long side of course.

If you are long I suggest you leave your ISL in place – but there is a good chance it’ll be taken to the woodshed during whatever swings we may see around 2:00pm. Alternatively you can lower it and also reduce position sizes. Whichever way this resolves – we may see a stab in the opposite direction first – you know how the game is played by now.

Bottom Line: Every quarter we have to endure this ritual and in most cases unfortunately only the boyz on the inside get to be positioned in the right direction. It sucks but it is what it is. Remember, we cannot worry about things we have little control over. So if you are playing either direction today then do it with a 1/4R position size and expect to get ridiculous fills if you get stop-run. This way if you happen to sit right you still bank coin and if you are on the wrong horse you won’t lose more than 1R.

Good luck! ;-)

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

 

Nothingburger

This day is basically a complete nothingburger. You just know it’s gonna suck and thus far it has done its best to live up to our vastly lowered expectations. Forget about equities right now folks – the cash indices all look like crap and I don’t trust the index futures, especially ahead of the interest rate decision.

If you absolutely must dabble in equities today then reduce your position size to a maximum of 1/2R – better less. You’ll thank me later and perhaps you won’t wind up pawning your grandma’s wedding ring to afford that Christmas turkey.

UPDATE - Fed going to taper by $5 Billion a month (not willing to lose all credibility it seems) and we’re already seeing wild swings all over the place. Don’t chase this thing!

I had a beautiful silver and EUR/USD setup waiting for you but both got taken to the woodshed just now. So let’s call it a day and I’ll be back in the morning. Sorry for being able to offer anything of substance but this is a textbook ‘sitting on your hands’ day. Better luck tomorrow.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Happy Independence Day
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    4. Short Term Updates
    5. The Game In A Nutshell
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    7. Greece Saga Precautions
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