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February 8, 2016

The Usual Suspects

Over the past few months a potent emotional cocktail of fear and confusion has been seeping into the consciousness of market participants. It’s not just that equities are steadily heading lower whilst producing more and more bearish context above to be overcome sometime in the future. What’s worse is that there appear to be very few places remaining to sit out the storm. The exception of course being the two usual suspects – bonds and gold.

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August 10, 2015

The Story Of The Boiled Frog

Alright settle down children – it’s story telling time! I’m sure you all are familiar with the aphorism of the boiled frog. Anyone? Well, they say that if you put a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will leap out right away to escape the danger.

But, if you put a frog in a kettle that is filled with water that is cool and pleasant, and then you gradually heat the kettle until it starts boiling, then the frog will not become aware of the threat until it is too late and slowly boil to death.

Moral of the story. The frog’s survival instincts are geared towards detecting sudden changes but it ignores slow gradual changes at its detriment. [...]

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March 5, 2015

Selling The Bounces

That was a pretty spectacular failure over in equities during today’s highs. This really should have caught on and exploded higher but it seems like we’re just seeing more distribution at each bounce. Ergo I’m selling every new spike higher at this point and here’s why:

Check out the zero signal – it’s measly and there’s no participation. The hourly Zero is starting to point down and downer but for right now we’re stuck in limbo.

So this is what we’re going to do – accumulate short positions right below that 100-hour SMA – NOT down here at 2098. I want to at least see a bounce toward 2100 [...]

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October 28, 2014

Don’t Be Afraid Of The Boogeyman

It’s fascinating to me what passes for financial reporting these days. This morning I came across a little jewel by Mark Ackerman who once again blames the big bad Market Boogeyman for the fact that equities have not crashed and burned this fall. I guess it’s that time of the year again – and no I’m not talking about Halloween. After all October is high SKEW month and how dare equities NOT fall off the plate six years and counting! Be this as it may – we are used to seeing our daily dose of doomsday reports and most of it we simply fade out for the useless and unproductive noise it is.

However articles like this follow a cognitive [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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