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October 28, 2014

Don’t Be Afraid Of The Boogeyman

It’s fascinating to me what passes for financial reporting these days. This morning I came across a little jewel by Mark Ackerman who once again blames the big bad Market Boogeyman for the fact that equities have not crashed and burned this fall. I guess it’s that time of the year again – and no I’m not talking about Halloween. After all October is high SKEW month and how dare equities NOT fall off the plate six years and counting! Be this as it may – we are used to seeing our daily dose of doomsday reports and most of it we simply fade out for the useless and unproductive noise it is.

However articles like this follow a cognitive [...]

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January 13, 2014

Only The Paranoid Survive

And once again the Mole has saved your rodent asses from drowning in your own pools of blood. Didn’t I suggest the real and present danger of distribution within the recent 20 handle volume island I have been reporting on all last week? Stay the heck out I told you. Don’t get positioned without the benefit of actionable technical context I implored. Did you listen? Of course not!

I present Exhibit A – the spoos today as hapless participants (that is you) once again are being shipped to the woodshed. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

And here’s Exhibit B – the little stink bomb that triggered it all. As you all know I [...]

 
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October 30, 2013

Misprint My Foot

Whether or not they’ll label this a misprint post facto – that early morning spike on Mr. VIX perhaps was a harbinger of the nasty tape we’d be seeing today on the equities side. Which is a good segue into the situation on the volatility side – let me walk you through it:

So first I thought it was just a TOS retail data misprint but I double checked it on stockcharts.com and my (much more reliable and paid for) Kinetick feed and both confirmed a spike to 21.26 today. Now when I suggested yesterday that we should expect a jump in volatility that certainly was not what I had in mind.

Fearless offered his own pertinent musings in the comment [...]

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October 29, 2013

Equities On Cruise Control

Unfortunately my physical condition hasn’t improved much so please forgive me if this will be a really quick update – I’m obviously not trading today. At the danger of pointing out the obvious I would however like to warn any of you to step in front of this slow motion melt up.

I think the hourly SPX chart shows the point I’m trying to make – markets rarely move in such an orderly fashion and this has been going on for five sessions straight now. The whole situation reeks of bot driven activity and when they throw things into reverse is anyone’s guess. Actually I strongly caution you to not even think about this as there is no [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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