Freaky Forex Friday

Seems like most of you rats have finally turned into mindless credit card swipin’ shopping bags draggin’ consumer monkeys. Not the Mole – no sireee – all my Christmas shopping is done in July, when the weather doesn’t suck!

australia_christmas

That’s more like it – pass me the Glühwein!! Alright, less of you means more goodies for me and I’m talking juicy short term setups – especially the Forex side is looking rather festive this morning. And unlike Santa the Mole is dishing it out all year – plus I favor you naughty ones.

2014-12-19_PA_briefing

Palladium – looking good here and I already grabbed a long with a stop below 789. With a bit of mojo perhaps that daily NLSL can be reversed today.

2014-12-19_AUDJP_briefing

AUD/JPY – it’s battling that daily NLBL but is also supported by the rising 25-hour SMA. Got to get out of the gate or it’ll slip lower again. I’m long here with a stop below 97.2.

More below – please step into my lair:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. Depending on participation I’ll do a follow up post this afternoon.

Cheers,

Better Not Fighting This…

Massive jump off the lows. I expected a little courtesy shake out this morning but the bots had other plans and immediately boarded the express elevator to the upside. Loving this tape although my damn lottery tickets got shaken out right near the lows. Hey you can’t win ‘em all – but you can try.

north_korean_hackers

So word has it North Korea hacked their way into Sony Pictures in response to a planned release of the tongue-in-cheek comedy ‘The Interview’. Guess shit just got real for James Franco.

So let me be the first to extend my sincere thanks to Kim Jong-un for sparing us yet another James Franco movie. Also, the whole situation gave me a great idea. Why waste your time hacking movie studios – that’s so 20th century. Instead turn those hackers into stone cold stone stock traders and sell the hell out of Sony stock! Much more effective long term – oh, and legal. (Kim Jong-un – call me!!)

2014-12-18_ES_update

Alright so here’s where we’re at. The spoos sliced through that first NLBL like hot butter. The next one at 2049.5 is where the rubber really meets the road. As you can see we’re right at the 25-day SMA and if we closed above it then I think 2050 is most likely in the cards. I really hope nobody is still short equities – jumps like these may find post corrections but usually (i.e. 80% of the time +) resolve higher in the weeks that follow.

See, Boosie’s got you covered.

2014-12-18_corn_setup

Now on to the setups – we have good stuff here tonight. Corn is looking good and I tweeted about it earlier today – did I really just say tweeted – we are all doomed. Anyway, nice price action suggesting that we either fail right here or there’ll be a jump and massive stop run higher. I’m short right now but am hoping for an opportunity to hop on the long bus.

My favorite setup today however is the CAD/CHF – super dreamy:


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Cheers,

Post Fed Musings

A lot of soft language came out of the Federal Reserve today, as expected actually. You will probably see a lot of nit picking regarding the actual statements presented by Yellen today, i.e. what does ‘transitory’ mean or how being ‘patient’ exactly chimes with the interest hike schedule set for next year. That’s all a lot of huey and I suggest you quite wasting your time interpreting FOMC tea leafs as the Mole is going to break it down for you:

  • We have seen crude prices being cut in half in less than half a year. Do you really think that was coincidence and natural market forces were at work? This was nothing but an economic hit job taken out on Putin.
  • They’ve now managed to not only cut Russia’s core energy revenues by half but they also managed to blow up the Ruble in the process, up to the point where trading was suspended yesterday.
  • And that certainly got Putin’s attention! Imagine the scene where his Swiss bankers very politely explain that Russia’s Ruble denominated assets are no longer margin collateral for trades or able to be used for wire transfers out of the country. I mean you’d have to think some of the top guys over there will be facing margin calls over long bets on western exchanges or USD denominated debt secured by worthless RUB assets. Ouch.
  • This is all part of what the British once referred to as the ‘Great Game’ and there was simply no way that our hapless Fed sock puppet Yellen was about to get in the way of the concerted bitch slapping of Putin initiated by the State Department.
  • Bottom line is that most likely we won’t see any changes to the interest rate hike schedule outlined for 2015 – it will more or less proceed as expected. However by generating doubt and confusion today it left enough space for imagination and thus keep the thumb screws on Putin.

And that’s how the game is being played, ratlings! I only feel bad for all those Russians who are caught in the middle – they are an acquired taste but I happen to really like the Russian people. You can say a lot about them but they are not hypocrites and they mean business – that means a lot in my book.

Anyway this battle clearly went to Obama but winning the war is completely different story. See, as a born German there’s one lesson they drilled into our heads when we were young: Never ever under estimate the Russian bear. Those guys are used to dealing with hardship and Putin’s popularity is as high as ever – the current situation may even give it a little boost. In the long term the Russians are going to dig themselves out of the current hole but this economic hit job orchestrated by the West (i.e. the U.S. and it’s Western alleys) will not be forgotten for a very long long time. I never understood why the West is so hellbent on making an enemy out of Putin.

putin_bear

But then again I’m a very small player and whoever is pulling the strings is fully aware of the points I’m highlighting here. I just hope the situation doesn’t escalate. The world is better off without a Russian nation thrown into  a deep recession, alienated from prior economic partners, and feeling threatened militarily. That could quickly get out of hand – black swan anyone? Never ever under estimate the unexpected consequences of your actions.

2014-12-17_dollar_update

So real quick a few snapshots of some key markets. The Dollar most definitely positive here and we may just hold that 25-day SMA now. Let’s see what tomorrow brings but I’m pretty stoked about this one.

2014-12-17_spoos_update

The spoos still bumbling about below their 100-hour SMA. We are at the 100-day but this candle is not exactly looking bearish. So there is potential for more ugliness.

2014-12-17_UVOL

Which is a bit surprising as we had solid buying mojo today – look here the UVOL/DVOL plots – green and very organized it seems. So maybe this is a last drop before it’s being punched higher?

2014-12-17_NYADV_NYDEC

I wish I could offer a definitive yay or nay here – the advancing/declining NYSE ratios also look positive. So I would have to conclude that we have a reasonable chance for at least an attempt to push this puppy higher. No setup opportunities though here. I tried a lottery ticket long yesterday and quite frankly this is not important enough for me to throw any more capital into this volatile tape.

Some more thoughts on crude below for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




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    1. Freaky Forex Friday
    2. Better Not Fighting This…
    3. The Squeeze Is On!
    4. Post Fed Musings
    5. Strap On Your Helmets
    6. When There’s Blood In The Streets
    7. Monthly Support
    8. Thrashed
    9. Under The Weather
    10. Not A Game For Adrenaline Junkies