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February 4, 2016

The Iron Is Lukewarm

I’m seeing a infinitesimal chance at grabbing NQ longs here. To be clear – the odds are very low and if you follow me into the abyss then don’t risk more than 1/2R at most.

My stop has been set below 4115 (chart says 4119 but I changed my mind) as that’s below both, the 100-hr and 25-hr BBs. Let’s see what happens here in the coming hour – if this campaign survives the first hour into the open then it’s got better chance of success.

I hope everyone is aware of the implications of failure here. Meaning if we drop below 4000 then odds are we are going all the way – my minimum target would be 3500. So this is [...]

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February 2, 2016

Too Many Damn Setups

I’m having way too much fun this morning, which accounts for my somewhat belated post. There literally seem to be juicy setups crawling out of the woodwork and I just kept adding new ones while reducing exposure on others in order to reduce correlation risk. So without further ado let’s jump right in:

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January 29, 2016

Japan Goes Sub Zero

I’m sure you’ve heard the news by now – in a surprise move the BOJ introduced negative interest rates, which caused for some interesting spikes across all JPY crosses. And I may I add that Kuroda was quoted by Reuters just a week ago that he had no plan to adopt negative rates now. Well, in his defense – he did explicitly say ‘now’ – by which he only could have meant ‘right now, this second’. Nobody asked him about the following week, did they?

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January 28, 2016

Bear Markets Are Hard

Bear markets in particular have a way of wearing on you. Sure they look great in hindsight, leaving little doubt about how you one could have easily banked millions. And quite frankly there is actually some truth in that (we’ll cover that later), but in reality most traders usually get chopped to pieces trying to time the endless preceding gyrations, only then to watch the tape run away without them.

In my time running this blog I have gradually shifted away from posting long winded tutorials as people’s attention span seems to be inversely correlated with the amount of information they are being exposed to. So today let’s look at two very simple ways [...]

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11654TOKYO - AUGUST 17:  People sit behind ice blocks at Icebar Tokyo on August 17, 2009 in Tokyo, Japan. The entrance fee of 3500 Yen with one drink and customers can borrow a coat upon entry. Everything in the bar including the counter, the wall, table, glasses, chairs are made from blocks of ice cut from Sweden's Torne river.  (Photo by Junko Kimura/Getty Images)
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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