Dangling By A Thread

Once again we are trading near bearish territory but I don’t mean to attach any directional bias via this post’s title. We all have seen major support come and go many times over the past few years. In most cases they served as great opportunities for the bulls to BTFD. Now clearly market conditions are shifting and the bearish case has been gaining a lot of credence over the past few months. However short of having a crystal ball the best we can do is to position ourselves appropriately near important inflection points and monitor the tape carefully for early clues. But have no fear - the Mole is on the case, as usual.

2015-07-28_spoos_briefing

We are actually enjoying quite a bit of context right now and I plan to take full advantage of that. The spoos are now testing a weekly NLSL near 2063 and thus far it’s holding. Should we close the week below it then the trend will most likely switch to the downside. So this will be a key week and that’s exciting!

I’ve moved my trailing stop covering my remaining shorts near the 100-hour SMA. May be a bit tight but unfortunately there’s no NLBL or old NLSL to bolster resistance. Sometimes you just have to make due with what you got.

2015-07-28_NQ_briefing

The NQ thus far the strongest of the bunch and here our inflection point is 4550 – above it we are pretty much in bullish territory. Below it we may be testing the 100-day SMA but there’s a LOT of support to still be taken out – so call me skeptical.

2015-07-28_YM_briefing

The YM clearly is the most bearish index here and after scaring the children a little we bounced higher here overnight. Which however does establish 17319 as our bearish inflection point. If the YM goes then the ES and NQ may follow suit.

In general seeing such discrepancy between the three horsemen are not the hallmarks of a healthy equities market. Which is why I am considering the bearish case at this point – but I’m most definitely respecting all that support that still lays below us.

2015-07-28_ZB_briefing

Bonds – the 30 year now in shake out mode and I think it’s a plausible buy near 154 – if we get that low.

2015-07-28_EURCAD_briefing

EUR/CAD – also correcting and that would be expected after that first stab higher. Nice entry opportunity IMNSHO near the 100-hour SMA which is strongly rising now.

You want more? Then pay up and join the club – freebie mongers only get to see the tip of the iceberg.


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That ought to keep you guys busy for a while. Have fun but keep it frosty – don’t get over exposed, which means split your exposure between correlated symbols.

Cheers,

Pay Attention Now

I must agree with Skynard’s musing earlier this morning – we are about to see a large move on the forex and futures front. Equities are simply the tail being wagged by a big (and currently snarling) dog. Time to pay attention – summer or not – these are conditions in which to bank some coin.

2015-07-23_spoos_briefing

We are somewhat in limbo on the spoos right now but I think we’ve got an short term inflection point around 2114 – so if we push up a little I’m planning to be short until 2115 – long above that. Small position sizing here as I’m preserving my capital for much better setups (see below).

2015-07-23_EURCAD_update

EUR/CAD update – our evil plan is proceeding as planned and this is now officially a daily campaign. I’m trailing a respectable distance away to lock in a bit of profit just in case but allow enough room for a continuation higher.

2015-07-23_ZB_briefing

Bonds – I’m actually already in ZN but if you have an appetite for exposure I think the ZB is looking trendy this morning.

2015-07-23_natgas

Natgas – I’m short near the high of the current trading range. Actually I think this is about to breach higher so I plan to flip for a long near 2.93. As you know NG can move fast so I’ve programmed it all in for quick execution.

Quite a bit more looming below the fold – please meet me in the lair:


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That ought to keep you guys busy for a while. Enjoy the setups but don’t get over exposed – and I’m referring especially a certain reader with a shampoo like avatar.

Cheers,

Who’s The Sucker?

The ongoing advance in equities continues unabated and I would strongly caution you against taking out short positions until the tape delivers us evidence pointing toward a reversal. Statistics mean exactly jack during low participation short squeeze periods, which is a lesson the Zero has taught us many times over the past few years.

2015-07-20_zero

Just compare the participation on the way down to the tiny signal range we’ve seen over the past few sessions. It is quite normal to see larger signal swings once gravity sets in, but this lack of participation on the rebound is a bit suspect. And in my book ‘suspect’ is not a license for taking out contrarian trades – quite on the… well – contrary. Some of you old timers may remember Whispering Saul, a trading legend from a different time who’s among a handful of candidates credited for an old aphorism which should be heeded especially during earning season: “If you enter a poker game and you don’t see a sucker, get up and leave – you’re it.”

2015-07-20_spoos_briefing

Following that advice I remain extremely skeptical about the equities side – in both directions. The daily panel is losing a bit of steam here and we have the S&P and Dow futures lagging the NQ. Still, until I see signs of real price weakness I won’t be touching this one with a ten foot pole.

2015-07-20_spoos_briefing_2

And the best place to look for such signs would be the hourly panel. However thus far it’s trailing its 25-hour SMA like a boss. This could easily continue higher for quite a while courtesy of over eager retail suckers with grandiose allusions of an ‘overdue’ reversal. Not to pimp my own ware but I think the Zero will be instrumental in offering us early clues, so I’ll be monitoring it carefully.

2015-07-20_GBPUSD_briefing_freebie

Cable is looking like a decent long here although that diagonal I painted is falling. So I’ll only deploy 1/3R here and would be prepared to flip for a short position on stop out.

A few more goodies for the subs below the fold.


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Now have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. Thursday Road Map
    2. Volatility Wave Surfing
    3. Dangling By A Thread
    4. Paying Attention Pays Off
    5. Sell Off Thursday Wrap Up
    6. Pay Attention Now
    7. Setups Setups Setups!
    8. I’m Your Huckleberry
    9. Who’s The Sucker?
    10. Mind Hacking