Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.


Nice activity this morning which presents us with nice entry opportunities. Time to get busy! Here are the spoos which have descended a bit over night and are now approaching the 100-hour SMA. I think a long near 2121.75 with a stop below 2120 has merit. If that one goes then we probably drop to 2113.25 or lower.


Similar pattern on the NQ and you can spread your exposure between those two.


EUR/USD – liking the sell off at the ATM but from a trading perspective we are approaching the last line of defense which IMO is the 25-day SMA near 1.10862. I’m trying a long if we breach 1.11.51 with a stop still to be determined – need to see the next spike low or NLSL.


Gold – long near the 25-hour with a stop below 1202.7. That was quite a slap down! Let’s see if it can recover or if we’re back in sideways mode. FWIW – boy the June contract has been a crap period for traders.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – please meet me in the lair:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.


Campaign Updates

I’ve accumulated a good number of positions over the past week and decided to not take on anything more for the day. We still haven’t really taken off across major indices and in line with my adjusted modus operandi of remaining nimble I don’t want to get over exposed. So let’s do a quick run down of some of our recent victims:


The spoos thus far are looking good to go and I’m moving my stop to 2112 now which is at break/even.


AUD/USD – that’s a campaign I’ve been holding since last week. It somehow rolled over nail or something as it went completely flat and rolled back to the downside. Stop out at my trailing stop for a humble 1R profit.


AUD/CAD – boy that was an awesome entry this morning right before it took off like a rocket. Moving my stop to break even and will hold through the RBA minutes in about seven hours.


EUR/CAD – also one from this morning. I say meh here and this one may actually stop out. I love the formation on the daily but it was probably too early to try a long position. I only have 1/3R in this one so I’m holding it.


EUR/GBP – stopped out of this morning’s ST position. The original entry form last week is still good and my stop remains at break even. Not really loving the mojo on this one to be honest but I’m holding it.


Cable – a few more pips to the downside and I’ll be out of that one. I was hoping for a LKGB here but it kept dropping below the 100-hour SMA. Bummer really as this is a great setup and I would take it every single time. Perhaps we’ll get another chance at the daily NLSL further below.


USD/CHF – awesome entry here this morning and I’m moving my stop to break even.


Wheat – for some reason this one screamed continuation at me this morning. Very few traders would have taken a long after that long candle last week. Great entry and I’m obviously holding it although I’m pretty sure there will be a LKGB retest of the 100-day. Moving my stop to break/even and Bob’s my uncle.

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Curb Your Enthusiasm

Equity futures have survived the night and are still looking solid. Not to sound cynical but isn’t it time for a shake out to the downside now? Just kidding! Frankly I have nothing to add right now – as you know I’m holding longs since 2112 but my expectation of finally seeing some directional tape remains low.


This looks and smells like a break out but after two months of sideways hell one wonders how many shorts remain to be squeezed. Scott pointed out that yesterday’s push higher was accompanied by waning momentum, however that hasn’t stopped prop desks from banging the tape higher in the past. So I choose to not over think this and simply move on. Quite honestly I’m sick of looking at this formation and something tells me the less I do and the less I care the better I’ll manage, no matter which way it’ll resolve.

There’s a good Spanish expression I’ve come fond of: Mucho ruido y pocas nueces. Roughly translates into ‘much ado about nothing’. Pretty much sums up equities since late last year. And sadly most people I’ve met in my life ;-)


AUD/CAD – I’m grabbing a long position here with a stop below 0.962. That 100-hour SMA has been rested recently and is the next best support line before things start turning much lower here. Admittedly not a whole lot of context here so I’m only playing 1/2R.


Copper – very unusual tape for copper here in the past two weeks. I’m daring a long position near the lower 100-hour BB. Would be tempted to go short on stop out. Still this looks like a chart that’s trying to pump higher but like crude it seems to completely lack any directional mojo.


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