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November 21, 2016

Post Election Volatility Changes In Equities

If you have been visiting regularly then you probably recall some of my earlier posts on realized volatility [1][2]. For the rest of you here’s a quick recap as it’s important to understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.

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November 10, 2016

Oompa Loompa Tape

What exactly did they mean when singing ‘if you’re not greedy you will go far’? Clearly Oompa Loompas are not trader material and should stick with chocolate manufacturing only. Which incidentally may be coming back to the United States if President-elect Donald Trump will have his way. Not sure if that’s a good thing however. If I had to choose between a famed Hershey’s bar and one by Milka made from rich Alpine Swiss milk then I’m sure you know what I’d be stuffing my face with. By the way, a word of advice: Oompa Loompas – hard working little guys – but be sure to be nice to them as they aim directly for you gonads when they [...]

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November 9, 2016

Dewey Defeats Trump

Make no mistake, the real loser of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was not Hillary Clinton. No, it was nearly the entire Western mainstream media which up to the final moment last night clung to a political fairytale it tried so very hard to convince its readers over the past two years. No matter whether you are a Hillary or a Trump supporter and no matter how you feel about the 45th president of the United States as a person, this is something that should deeply upset and worry you long after your current euphoria or depression has subsided and given way to your daily routine.

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October 24, 2016

A Game Of Pinball

It seems that, until the presidential election is finally over, we will have to resign ourselves to playing an extended game of pinball. Of course sitting the remaining weeks out altogether and going on autumn vacation is an attractive option, but my subs are rather unforgiving when it comes to slacking on the job. So I’ll be doing my best to guide you all though the unfolding mess to the best of my abilities. Be advises however that playing the swings during a sideways period can easily lead to over trading. Make sure you are aware of the potential traps and thus keep your position sizing to a minimum whilst allowing for large stops. 

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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