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February 5, 2016

Hanging By A Thread

We are literally hanging by a thread here as the bulls have been able to defend the last hurdle separating the winter of tears from the spring the bears. The 1900 mark may look innocuous enough but if we close below it today then the odds of more downside momentum next increase by a large margin.

I’m sensing quite a bit of exhaustion in the comment section and I can’t really blame you guys. Not only did we have to suffer through almost an entire year of sideways churn, but now that things are more directional we still have to put up with an increasing amount of intra-day volatility. Well, better get used to it, because conditions like these is going to be [...]

9100
 
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February 4, 2016

The Iron Is Lukewarm

I’m seeing a infinitesimal chance at grabbing NQ longs here. To be clear – the odds are very low and if you follow me into the abyss then don’t risk more than 1/2R at most.

My stop has been set below 4115 (chart says 4119 but I changed my mind) as that’s below both, the 100-hr and 25-hr BBs. Let’s see what happens here in the coming hour – if this campaign survives the first hour into the open then it’s got better chance of success.

I hope everyone is aware of the implications of failure here. Meaning if we drop below 4000 then odds are we are going all the way – my minimum target would be 3500. So this is [...]

5976
 
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January 26, 2016

Soylent Orange

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. When in doubt always choose the scenario that screws with the maximum amount of market participants. Mrs. Market may be evil down to the core of her raven black heart but at least she’s consistent. So Soylent Orange it is apparently, now let’s see what we’ve got to work with here.

The drop in equities yesterday should have cleaned out the majority of the longs. Quite frankly Soylent Red is still on the table and I’d give it about 30% at this point. Although I doubt I’ll catch this entry I would be long near 1867, so perhaps I get my fill after the bell.

The EUR/USD is [...]

6555
 
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January 15, 2016

Time To Strike

Not surprisingly equities have painted yet another swing to the downside overnight. Which presents us with a very delicious short term entry opportunity right here and right now. Time to strike.

This is the play: Long here while yesterday’s lows at 1871 remain in place. Put your stop below 1868 and then wait for the open. IF stopped out we may have to assess the momentum on the Zero. Assuming there is bearish momentum we wait for a quick retest which would be our opportunity to dip into short positions.

Whether or not we would reload on the long side will depend on what we’re seeing the Zero Lite today (you are a sub, right?). Clearly attempts are [...]

9805
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11651TOKYO - AUGUST 17:  People sit behind ice blocks at Icebar Tokyo on August 17, 2009 in Tokyo, Japan. The entrance fee of 3500 Yen with one drink and customers can borrow a coat upon entry. Everything in the bar including the counter, the wall, table, glasses, chairs are made from blocks of ice cut from Sweden's Torne river.  (Photo by Junko Kimura/Getty Images)
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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