Good things come to those who wait. After a bit of downtime over the last two weeks, and focusing a bit on options and the educational front, it’s time to snap back into action. I’m seeing some very interesting formations across the board this morning, so let’s dive right in starting with equities.
With Yellen pretending to hike rates and Draghi pretending to lower them a strengthening Euro wouldn’t make much sense in principle. Which is exactly the reason why a Dollar put has worked so well over the past few weeks. When playing poker there invariably comes a moment when you’re being called to show your hand. And that’s exactly what forex vigilantes are doing right now. You may be the bank and you may be making the rules. You may even go as far as change the rules whenever it suits you. But as the old saying goes: Bullshit talks, money walks.
Equities are not looking so hot right now. Especially the hourly panel looks like a veritable war zones, with spikes, trenches, and traps resembling the Western front during WW1. So even thinking about a long position here most likely sounds just as appealing as any of Baldrick’s ‘cunning plans’ featured in the series Black Adder. As a personal side note – if you have been tragically born without a sense of humor then there may be hope for you. Just treat yourself to a season or two of Black Adder and I promise you’ll be the life of the party next time around. Either that or they’ll have you committed.
The Dollar is really taking it on the chin this morning and this may be just the beginning as I see a good number of crosses push into possible short term trending action (bearish on USD base crosses, e.g. EUR/USD, and bullish on USD counter crosses, e.g. GBP/USD). Clearly the Fed is going to fight this, as a weaker Dollar is beneficial to appreciating equities.