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May 4, 2016

Euromania

With Yellen pretending to hike rates and Draghi pretending to lower them a strengthening Euro wouldn’t make much sense in principle. Which is exactly the reason why a Dollar put has worked so well over the past few weeks. When playing poker there invariably comes a moment when you’re being called to show your hand. And that’s exactly what forex vigilantes are doing right now. You may be the bank and you may be making the rules. You may even go as far as change the rules whenever it suits you. But as the old saying goes: Bullshit talks, money walks.

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May 3, 2016

A Cunning Plan

Equities are not looking so hot right now. Especially the hourly panel looks like a veritable war zones, with spikes, trenches, and traps resembling the Western front during WW1. So even thinking about a long position here most likely sounds just as appealing as any of Baldrick’s ‘cunning plans’ featured in the series Black Adder. As a personal side note – if you have been tragically born without a sense of humor then there may be hope for you. Just treat yourself to a season or two of Black Adder and I promise you’ll be the life of the party next time around. Either that or they’ll have you committed.

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April 11, 2016

Stomp On Bucky Day

The Dollar is really taking it on the chin this morning and this may be just the beginning as I see a good number of crosses push into possible short term trending action (bearish on USD base crosses, e.g. EUR/USD, and bullish on USD counter crosses, e.g. GBP/USD). Clearly the Fed is going to fight this, as a weaker Dollar is beneficial to appreciating equities.

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March 31, 2016

The Market’s Purgatory

The mindset of the average retail trader is pretty predictable. For example, if markets are strongly trending to the upside then most participants wonder: ‘how much more upside?‘ Inversely if markets are falling hard for days on end then most of the discourse revolves around ‘how much more downside?‘ If however we’re stuck in a sideways range then all they can think about is: ‘how much more of this’?

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2174Riders participate in the 74th "That Famous Preston Night" Rodeo in Preston Idaho, August 1, 2009. The annual event is billed as one of the region's biggest rodeos, bringing top riders and thousands of fans to the small southern Idaho town. Photo by Colin E. Braley
 
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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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