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February 12, 2016

What Goes Straight Up

What goes [straight] up must eventually go down. However when exactly a symbol which has turned exponential runs out of fuel is the more important question. Once emotions reign high all bets are off – or in this case all bids are on. You may recall that I was pointing at gold the other day and suggesting that we may see another wild push to the upside.

Which is exactly what we got and I’m pretty glad I got out of my short position at break/even. We are now seeing an obligatory pullback but medium term this thing may have legs.

Just FYI – the P&F claims that we met the bullish price objective. However I wouldn’t really think [...]

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February 8, 2016

The Usual Suspects

Over the past few months a potent emotional cocktail of fear and confusion has been seeping into the consciousness of market participants. It’s not just that equities are steadily heading lower whilst producing more and more bearish context above to be overcome sometime in the future. What’s worse is that there appear to be very few places remaining to sit out the storm. The exception of course being the two usual suspects – bonds and gold.

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February 5, 2016

Hanging By A Thread

We are literally hanging by a thread here as the bulls have been able to defend the last hurdle separating the winter of tears from the spring the bears. The 1900 mark may look innocuous enough but if we close below it today then the odds of more downside momentum next increase by a large margin.

I’m sensing quite a bit of exhaustion in the comment section and I can’t really blame you guys. Not only did we have to suffer through almost an entire year of sideways churn, but now that things are more directional we still have to put up with an increasing amount of intra-day volatility. Well, better get used to it, because conditions like these is going to be [...]

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February 4, 2016

The Iron Is Lukewarm

I’m seeing a infinitesimal chance at grabbing NQ longs here. To be clear – the odds are very low and if you follow me into the abyss then don’t risk more than 1/2R at most.

My stop has been set below 4115 (chart says 4119 but I changed my mind) as that’s below both, the 100-hr and 25-hr BBs. Let’s see what happens here in the coming hour – if this campaign survives the first hour into the open then it’s got better chance of success.

I hope everyone is aware of the implications of failure here. Meaning if we drop below 4000 then odds are we are going all the way – my minimum target would be 3500. So this is [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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