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May 3, 2016

A Cunning Plan

Equities are not looking so hot right now. Especially the hourly panel looks like a veritable war zones, with spikes, trenches, and traps resembling the Western front during WW1. So even thinking about a long position here most likely sounds just as appealing as any of Baldrick’s ‘cunning plans’ featured in the series Black Adder. As a personal side note – if you have been tragically born without a sense of humor then there may be hope for you. Just treat yourself to a season or two of Black Adder and I promise you’ll be the life of the party next time around. Either that or they’ll have you committed.

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April 11, 2016

Stomp On Bucky Day

The Dollar is really taking it on the chin this morning and this may be just the beginning as I see a good number of crosses push into possible short term trending action (bearish on USD base crosses, e.g. EUR/USD, and bullish on USD counter crosses, e.g. GBP/USD). Clearly the Fed is going to fight this, as a weaker Dollar is beneficial to appreciating equities.

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March 31, 2016

The Market’s Purgatory

The mindset of the average retail trader is pretty predictable. For example, if markets are strongly trending to the upside then most participants wonder: ‘how much more upside?‘ Inversely if markets are falling hard for days on end then most of the discourse revolves around ‘how much more downside?‘ If however we’re stuck in a sideways range then all they can think about is: ‘how much more of this’?

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March 29, 2016

Back To Work Tuesday

In retrospect I should have extended my vacation until after Eastern, however it is sometimes difficult to optimally consolidate U.S. and Spanish holidays. Now I hope you enjoyed your extended Eastern holiday weekend but now it’s time to kick things back into gear. The futures markets in particular are looking very juicy this morning, so let’s cover equities first and then jump into some setups:

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
Ten Trading Rules For Avoiding Extinction
The Emotional Purgatory Of Cognitive Biases – Part 1
Practice Makes Perfect
Option Basics – Credit Spreads
Option Basics – Debit Spreads
Option Basics – The Greeks