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March 8, 2017

Learning to Read

Trying to predict what the stock market will do is for dumbasses. A proper analysis of the big name stock tippers and analysts shows that they are all significantly worse than random.

This is a spreadsheet built by Tim Knight tracking Gartman’s predictions, running at a 22% correct rate for the year. What Tim fails to mention is that his own predictions are every bit as bad.

Predicting markets sucks, and it induces a whole bunch of mental baggage where we make a prediction and all of a sudden want it to be true. We cheer it on like a horse at the track.

There is a bug in our mental wiring where we only remember the correct calls and cannot remember the [...]

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March 7, 2017

Tenerife Awaits

After an extremely profitable first quarter I think most of you would agree that I have more than earned myself a little vacation. And boy do I need one as I have been feeling myself running on depleting reserves over the past few weeks. Yes, even the Mole is only human (sort of). Also, beyond the polished facade and daily evil deeds there had been a lot happening behind the scenes, some of which I have no doubt Scott will be talking about as he’ll be filling in during my two week absence. And may I just say – are you in for a rare treat ladies and leeches!

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March 6, 2017

Second Helping

This may be strange coming from an expat living in Spain but you guys have no idea how much I miss going to a good ole’ fashioned American diner. No not one of those fake copies in L.A. they build on top of the original ones after tearing them down. Yes, I’m looking at you Mel’s – what the heck were you guys thinking? A solid American diner has an ambience unique to where it’s located, it must have a zany 1950s interior, there need to be impatient chain smoking career waitresses, and the food of course needs to be delicious with generous portions to boot. My favorite diner in the world is Carla’s Route 66 in Twentynine Palms – I think it used [...]

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March 3, 2017

End Of A Long Ride

Like dominos, one by one, the doves at the Federal Reserve appear to have fallen over the past few months. The final and most important one is widely expected to at least tilt a little later today at 1:00pm when Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver her much anticipated speech. Equity markets have responded accordingly which brought a final end to one of the longest lasting rallies in which I had the pleasure of participating in my trading career.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    I’ve been tangentially following the news at a safe distance over the past week and frankly felt tempted to pinch myself every once in a while, just … more
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