Catching entries and holding them for more than a day or two has been increasingly difficult lately, in particular since the beginning of June. Not only are we in a seasonally bearish period during what still continues to be a late stage bull market (until proven wrong), but intra-day volatility also appears to be in a cycle of expansion. Originally this post was supposed to feature an early summer lottery ticket but upon further consideration I had to (once again – yes) err on the cautious side. Call me a chicken but I think a more conservative approach has kept us out of a lot of trouble recently.
The longest day of the year has arrived but most of Europe has already been sizzling for the past few weeks. Down here in Spain we regularly have been touching the 35 Celsius scale which is about 95 Fahrenheit for all you metricphobic North Americans. Although I love to bitch about the cold during the winter what really irks me the most is the insufferable summer heat here in Valencia which unfortunately comes with a ton of humidity – we’re talking 80% plus at times. Which is quite different from the dry desert like heat I had gotten accustomed to living in California for about 20 years.
How far we have come over the past few years whilst getting absolutely nowhere. I mused just yesterday that it feels like as if we are living in one giant economic, cultural, and social bubble in dire need of a needle. Everywhere I look I see nothing but rapid inflation and boundless exuberance. What once may have been a slow and barely perceivable progression into an utopian brave new world, where nothing matters and everything carries a price tag, has at this point become utterly pervasive and is now rapidly making its way into all aspects of our personal and professional lives. But the most recent and increasingly bothersome symptom of what I deem to be a de facto generational [...]
Equities continue to be a mixed bag and while simple price tells one part of the story the volume profile also shows us the ranges where we should expect buying and selling pressure. Of course bear in mind that the volume profile is based on historical context and for a true perspective we would need to acquire fairly costly Level 2 access and then evaluate the offering and bidding lots. For the average retail rat Level 2 access is however way outside the budget so I guess volume holes it is.