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February 5, 2016

Hanging By A Thread

We are literally hanging by a thread here as the bulls have been able to defend the last hurdle separating the winter of tears from the spring the bears. The 1900 mark may look innocuous enough but if we close below it today then the odds of more downside momentum next increase by a large margin.

I’m sensing quite a bit of exhaustion in the comment section and I can’t really blame you guys. Not only did we have to suffer through almost an entire year of sideways churn, but now that things are more directional we still have to put up with an increasing amount of intra-day volatility. Well, better get used to it, because conditions like these is going to be [...]

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February 4, 2016

The Iron Is Lukewarm

I’m seeing a infinitesimal chance at grabbing NQ longs here. To be clear – the odds are very low and if you follow me into the abyss then don’t risk more than 1/2R at most.

My stop has been set below 4115 (chart says 4119 but I changed my mind) as that’s below both, the 100-hr and 25-hr BBs. Let’s see what happens here in the coming hour – if this campaign survives the first hour into the open then it’s got better chance of success.

I hope everyone is aware of the implications of failure here. Meaning if we drop below 4000 then odds are we are going all the way – my minimum target would be 3500. So this is [...]

5991
 
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February 2, 2016

Too Many Damn Setups

I’m having way too much fun this morning, which accounts for my somewhat belated post. There literally seem to be juicy setups crawling out of the woodwork and I just kept adding new ones while reducing exposure on others in order to reduce correlation risk. So without further ado let’s jump right in:

15732
 
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February 1, 2016

Crossing The Chasm

Equities are soon facing a veritable chasm on our volume profile chart, one which spans roughly between ES 1940 and 1980 – 40 handles of non-participation where pretty much anything can happen. At the current velocity I have some doubts as to whether we’ll even make it half way through there but I don’t want to be too hasty with making an assessment as we’re slowly dropping out of a high volatility range and may be seeing more trending tape later this week.

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11655TOKYO - AUGUST 17:  People sit behind ice blocks at Icebar Tokyo on August 17, 2009 in Tokyo, Japan. The entrance fee of 3500 Yen with one drink and customers can borrow a coat upon entry. Everything in the bar including the counter, the wall, table, glasses, chairs are made from blocks of ice cut from Sweden's Torne river.  (Photo by Junko Kimura/Getty Images)
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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