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August 20, 2015

Medium Term Support

Equity futures are heading down this morning and there’s one chart that I would like to bring to everyone’s attention. I don’t talk about the Dow often but as it’s the weakest among the three major equity indices it may be paving the way for the two others.

In particular the weekly panel has grabbed my attention as we are now in earshot of the 100-week SMA. Hell it’s been a long time since that happened – last time we touched it was in November 2011. By the way the chart looks a bit different on my NinjaTrader (there it’s at 16,939) – so I guess it depends on how the indicator is implemented and of course on the data [...]

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March 2, 2015

Setups Deluxe

Not a very interesting day on the equities side unless you enjoy playing the swings, in which case the sideways range on the E-Mini for instance offered quite some opportunity for jumping in and out. It’s the sort of day when the Zero really shines and not surprisingly it painted a pretty juicy Mole reversal signal during the mid day stab lower – plus note a very distinct signal divergence during the highs:

However what really caught my attention is the repeating pattern that its presenting itself on the hourly Zero panel (the lower panel). It’s starting to look like a heart beat and since it represents participation to the up/down side my conclusion [...]

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February 12, 2015

Setups Setups Setups

Way too much chatter on this board and way too little hands on trading. Almost none of you are riding this higher due to either a) lack of effort b) propensity for mental masturbation or c) trying to make predictions. Seriously? After six years plus of Evil Speculator goodness I expect a lot more from you guys. So once again, let me show you how it’s done:

The bulls are clearly back in charge here as we have crossed all bullish inflection points and are now squeezing the tape higher. What I like in particular here is that the upper 25-day BB is now starting to point up, which means there’s almost nothing but air above. Well, I said almost – there is a [...]

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February 5, 2015

The End Of An Era

Seems like everything continues to run in circles, so watch your six and don’t get over exposed. This is not the tape to be trifled with. On the equities side the roller coaster is now heading higher again, which actually may be positive in terms of being able to find exposure near our inflection points. But thus far we remain stuck inside the murky depth of the ES limbo range.

The only setup I would consider this morning is cocoa futures – it’s slowly easing its way higher and I would risk 1/2R on a close above the NLBL at 2,751. Now speaking of the futures…

It is with a heavy heart that I must share the ending of an era: The CME [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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