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July 15, 2016

Do Nothing

Due to recent developments here is what I should add to our current NQ campaign: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Yes I know, your fingers are itching and it is oh so tempting to mock with a running winner. Why not move that stop up just a little or take a bit more off the table? But I strongly encourage you to simply let her run until she either arrives at her target or touches her trailing stop. Per. The. Rules. One of the toughest lessons to learn for some traders is to simply sit on your hands and let your winners run.

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April 14, 2015

Bait And Switch Tuesday

Guys – don’t let this happen to you! If you’ve been trading equities for more than a few months then you probably have seen the following play out: Equities are dropping near the open, everything is screaming sell. Suddenly there’s a spike to the upside which triggers more bids and results in a short squeeze continuing most of the session. So how to keep from getting screwed like this and in many other ways on a recurring basis?

Simple! Sign up for the Zero which shows you real participation on a 5-minute basis. What you are looking at above is a textbook bullish divergence on the Zero Lite during the quick drop post NYSE open. May I also add [...]

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April 13, 2015

Futures Setups Galore

After a fake out spike higher in the morning the day did indeed turn into a shake out session. I’m not seeing much participation here yet, so let’s see what the close looks like. Definite possibility they’ll drive a bit lower but for now there’s little to do for us:

As you can see we’re kind of dangling in the midst of it all – if the 25-hour BB doesn’t contain this push lower then we’ll most likely revisit the 100-hour near 2080. On the daily panel we have zero context, therefore I’ll stick with the hourly. FYI – my trailing stop on the NQ has also been advanced below the 100-hour SMA.

The [...]

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February 10, 2015

Kicking The Ball Around

Absolutely no participation today which was pretty clear about an hour or so into the session. We are still near the bullish inflection point with no resolution in sight. And I’m still in my OTM SPY puts but also long the NQ via Thor – so I need a big move here to be flashing some green.

Here’s today’s tape courtesy of the Zero indicator – extremely small signal range here today as well as yesterday. The hourly panel reflects just that and the current formation is a bit ambivalent. But the take away message here is to not fall in love with a direction or an opinion. Limited participation like this encourages monkey business – i.e. [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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