Today I will introduce an aspect of volatility that you most likely have not seen being addressed anywhere else: realized volatility profiles. First up let’s make sure you all understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.
In retrospect I should have extended my vacation until after Eastern, however it is sometimes difficult to optimally consolidate U.S. and Spanish holidays. Now I hope you enjoyed your extended Eastern holiday weekend but now it’s time to kick things back into gear. The futures markets in particular are looking very juicy this morning, so let’s cover equities first and then jump into some setups:
If the bulls want to breach the current ceiling then someone better call Mackelmore & Lewis, because as of now she ain’t budging. After a pretty annoying and range bound session yesterday we remain pinned below 1940 which is an intermediate hurdle before we reach real resistance below approximately 1980.
As I happily continue to trail this advance I cannot help but remind myself that it is a bit early in the season for a continued push higher. Far be it from me to second guess however and I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth.
I would like however plant the seeds of objectivity early as to prepare you for the possibility of a second shake out that we may be heading into. In my experience in order for significant advances to occur we need to look out for attempts to frustrate and mislead the enemy. As we are currently in earshot of the old highs I propose two main scenarios in the coming week:Soylent Green: We screw around a little more today but then [...]