With Yellen pretending to hike rates and Draghi pretending to lower them a strengthening Euro wouldn’t make much sense in principle. Which is exactly the reason why a Dollar put has worked so well over the past few weeks. When playing poker there invariably comes a moment when you’re being called to show your hand. And that’s exactly what forex vigilantes are doing right now. You may be the bank and you may be making the rules. You may even go as far as change the rules whenever it suits you. But as the old saying goes: Bullshit talks, money walks.
Today I will introduce an aspect of volatility that you most likely have not seen being addressed anywhere else: realized volatility profiles. First up let’s make sure you all understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.
In retrospect I should have extended my vacation until after Eastern, however it is sometimes difficult to optimally consolidate U.S. and Spanish holidays. Now I hope you enjoyed your extended Eastern holiday weekend but now it’s time to kick things back into gear. The futures markets in particular are looking very juicy this morning, so let’s cover equities first and then jump into some setups:
If the bulls want to breach the current ceiling then someone better call Mackelmore & Lewis, because as of now she ain’t budging. After a pretty annoying and range bound session yesterday we remain pinned below 1940 which is an intermediate hurdle before we reach real resistance below approximately 1980.