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February 15, 2017

Federal Housecleaning

It’s that time of the month again and that means blood spills all over the place and rapid changes of emotions for no apparent reason. Of course I’m talking about a Fed announcement day which is the financial menstrual cycle determining the fertility of your bond holdings and thus implicitly the value of the remaining currency in your pockets. Not wanting to get pregnant ever again after one too many abortions the Fed chose a multi-level regiment of birth control measures in 2008 and then proceeded on a financial partying spree, with apparently no end in sight.

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January 6, 2017

Once Again Only The Paranoid Survive

Having paid tribute to it right here on several occasions over the past years [1][2][3][4] I was once again reminded of late Andy Grove’s favorite motto earlier this morning when I saw the flash crash in the silver futures. Apparently rumor has it that someone (Mexico.. cough.. cough) dumped around $200 Million notional of Silver in just a few minutes. Which presented us all with a great entry opportunity – twice – if you happen to be a high frequency AI directly hooked into the IEX pipe reading this. Incidentally if you are then let me be first to announce that Evil Speculator welcomes our glorious new robotic overlords. 

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January 5, 2017

Solid Kick Off

Given that it was only the second session of the year plus a dreaded FOMC day I’d say we are kicking off the season as well as anyone could ask for. But let’s remain cautions for now as it’s easy to get caught up in the early excitement, which often leads to a major smack down towards mid-January.

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January 4, 2017

Running With Silver Futures

I have no idea why people insist on wearing footwear that’s should be easily visible to the naked eye all the way up at the International Space Station. “Oh look – there goes Bill again – he’s up early for his morning run today!” Whenever you think that attention whoring has reached its maximum peak the intrepid engineers at Nike go to work and prove you wrong yet once again. Well done! And I thought three stripes on my Adidas pants were a bit flashy…

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
System Building Lessons continued
Systematic Trading Continued. Unwrapping the onion
Trend Bending Continued
Learning To Read Part 2 – The end of the trend, that was your friend, until it bends
old dog
Exercises in System Building – Part 2
Exercises in Trading System Building – Part 1