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November 20, 2015

Soylent Green And Orange

As I happily continue to trail this advance I cannot help but remind myself that it is a bit early in the season for a continued push higher. Far be it from me to second guess however and I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth.

I would like however plant the seeds of objectivity early as to prepare you for the possibility of a second shake out that we may be heading into. In my experience in order for significant advances to occur we need to look out for attempts to frustrate and mislead the enemy. As we are currently in earshot of the old highs I propose two main scenarios in the coming week:

Soylent Green: We screw around a little more today but then [...]
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November 18, 2015

Misses Mean Reversion 2015 Runner Ups

A few years back I wrote a post [1] in which I profiled one of the main deadly sins of retail trader ignominy – the ubiquitous and often almost fanatic anticipation of mean reversion. I am not going to regurgitate my point; if you are a culprit (and you know you are) then I strongly recommend you read my old post and perhaps also one of my more recent ones [2]. If you’re a noob here then you may also want to point your browser toward our all time favorites page [3]. The holidays are nigh and tis the season to debug your brain and start the new year fresh.

However book knowledge is one thing – seeing things play out in reality is quite another. Let me [...]

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November 4, 2015

Coffee Is For Closers

Equities are firing on all six cylinders and overnight we’ve held the line near the magic ES 2100 mark. Given the momentum over the past few days (consistent and small) this suggests that institutional traders are milking this short squeeze for all it’s worth.

This is the S&P cash has us only ~10 handles away from our all time highs at 2134.71. There is no telling whether or not we breach it this week, but if we do then I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for weakness starting the next.

On the volatility front we’re just about to head into more turbulent waters. As you can see we are now back in the lower range after a low [...]

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September 15, 2015

Coiled Up To The Max

As you are probably already aware – the Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday and will deliberate the first interest rate increase in nearly a decade. Analysts seem to be split over the outcome however I would be rather surprised if the Fed decides to hike. Yes, there has been a lot of pertinent jaw boning since late last year. But behind all the spouted rhetoric hides very tangible fear about the shock waves a hike may cause. For one the Dollar would most likely punch massively higher – affording the mighty Mole an even more lavish and immoral lifestyle over here in poverty stricken Spain. Expect me to buy up massive amounts of property and [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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