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August 6, 2015

Bonds Reloaded

Looks like we may get another opportunity to dip into some bond action. If at first you don’t succeed try try again. In general I’m seeing very nice price action on the futures side today, so let’s get to it:

The five year continues to coil up and as it’s near a rough rising diagonal I’m playing an hourly Net-Line Buy Level to the upside. Stop below 119 – 1/2R only as the tape is highly volatile.

The other half goes to the ten year bond futures – that keeps gyrating its way higher and seems due for the next leg higher. I am open to the downside here as well but do not like the context below, which tells me that [...]

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June 16, 2015

Meanwhile Down At The Evil Lair

Over the past few weeks I have hinted a few times that I was developing a swing trading system based on Darth Mole. Which you may recall is a simple indicator I developed last year with the aim of predicting expansion in price volatility. Quite a good thing to know if you’re about to enter a symbol and over the past few months we’ve been watching it nail one big swing after the other. Some of you are subscribed to the free email alerts or have seen it in the twitter feed. But for the uninitiated here are a few screen grabs:

Here’s DarthMole running against the EURUSD. The blue arrow indicates when you received the alerts.

Here it is [...]

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June 8, 2015

Monday Morning Briefing

I’m back from my weekend get-away and much to my shame I was looking forward to getting back to the lair most of the time I was gone. What the hell is wrong with me? Well, we’ve got very interesting tape unfolding this morning which means we’re going to hit the ground running. But first let’s get up to speed on what’s happening on the equities side:

After a rather eventless looking Friday (good timing on taking the day off) we seem to be slowly descending lower. Damn you Skynard! 😉

Anyway, we are looking at soft support here between the weekly NLSL and the 100-day SMA near 2080. I know that’s a 20 handle window but I [...]

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June 4, 2015

Twiddling Thumbs Thursday

With the exception of the ongoing Euro squeeze (also affecting bonds) the tape continues to run in circles. My appetite for exposure in either direction has been greatly reduced as I’ve been spinning like mad over the past few weeks, extracting a small edge out of each incoming wave of gyrations. There however comes to the point when you must admit to yourself that the input required does no longer justify the return. I’ve been lucky to not having banked any losses but not since my high school days have I worked so hard for so little return.

So why bother? Well, these are the times when you collect evidence, get a feel for the pulse of the market. Right now what [...]

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5997Am 18.08.2011 um 19:11 Uhr
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