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November 18, 2015

Misses Mean Reversion 2015 Runner Ups

A few years back I wrote a post [1] in which I profiled one of the main deadly sins of retail trader ignominy – the ubiquitous and often almost fanatic anticipation of mean reversion. I am not going to regurgitate my point; if you are a culprit (and you know you are) then I strongly recommend you read my old post and perhaps also one of my more recent ones [2]. If you’re a noob here then you may also want to point your browser toward our all time favorites page [3]. The holidays are nigh and tis the season to debug your brain and start the new year fresh.

However book knowledge is one thing – seeing things play out in reality is quite another. Let me [...]

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October 23, 2015

Bear Spanking

Every once in a while we snag that perfect entry and I would lie if claimed that it’s not hugely satisfying. Equities are now in full squeeze mode and after a continued push higher overnight it’s due time to convert a portion of my paper profits into cold hard cash. The remainder stays in the game in expectation of a much more pronounced bear spanking.

My trailing stop is near 2053, a respectable distance away permitting sufficient room for the obligatory late Friday monkey business. This has third wave written all over it – cough cough 😉

Bonds – stopped out at break/even overnight. Can’t win ’em [...]

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October 22, 2015

Brilliant Context

We have context ladies and leeches – that little dip lower yesterday has produced short context which I intend to take advantage of. On the volatility scale the daily is dropping quickly and the hourly is just about to bust higher in the coming hours. So what is a self respecting evil speculator supposed to do?

Time to strike folks – this is a brilliant spot to grab a bit of exposure as we’re literally sitting on the knife’s edge here. I’m currently with a stop near 2011 (I dare you bloody stop hunters!). A short position below it is absolutely on the menu assuming of course the Zero plays ball – so I recommend you watch that one [...]

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October 21, 2015

Busy Busy Wednesday

There’s nothing new to be said about the equities side so I will simply refrain. However that doesn’t mean we’re sitting idle as we’ve got movement across producing many juicy setups in the process. Let’s take it from the top:

First a quick update on the AUD/NZD campaign which now has progressed sufficiently to warrant moving our stop to the break even point.

USD/JPY at a very interesting spot. Look how it’s kissing those daily Net-Lines which also demarcate a falling diagonal resistance line. I’m feeling lucky today so I grabbed some longs based on those rising hourly Bollingers. IF (and only if) this turns into [...]

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11654TOKYO - AUGUST 17:  People sit behind ice blocks at Icebar Tokyo on August 17, 2009 in Tokyo, Japan. The entrance fee of 3500 Yen with one drink and customers can borrow a coat upon entry. Everything in the bar including the counter, the wall, table, glasses, chairs are made from blocks of ice cut from Sweden's Torne river.  (Photo by Junko Kimura/Getty Images)
Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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