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May 25, 2016

Second Quarter Long Term Update

My favorite quarter of the year is slowly drawing to a close, with Memorial Day in the U.S. demarking the beginning of the long awaited vacation season. It’s been a long winter and we haven’t really seen much of a spring over here in the Mediterranean to be honest. The past three months brought us only a few warm days as the general theme was dominated by rainy weather, cold spells, and even a patch of frost in late April that damaged a good number of vine crops up North in Southern France.

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April 20, 2016

Softs On The Move

Still nothing to report on the setups front and I’m starting to chew my toenails out of boredom. Actually I’m kidding – I’ve been spending some time looking into some possible IV crush scenarios and as soon as Jay The Executioner and I are have put together a pertinent game plan I’ll be sharing more on that subject. Hopefully before this earnings season concludes – if not then most definitely the next one. 

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March 29, 2016

Back To Work Tuesday

In retrospect I should have extended my vacation until after Eastern, however it is sometimes difficult to optimally consolidate U.S. and Spanish holidays. Now I hope you enjoyed your extended Eastern holiday weekend but now it’s time to kick things back into gear. The futures markets in particular are looking very juicy this morning, so let’s cover equities first and then jump into some setups:

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November 18, 2015

Misses Mean Reversion 2015 Runner Ups

A few years back I wrote a post [1] in which I profiled one of the main deadly sins of retail trader ignominy – the ubiquitous and often almost fanatic anticipation of mean reversion. I am not going to regurgitate my point; if you are a culprit (and you know you are) then I strongly recommend you read my old post and perhaps also one of my more recent ones [2]. If you’re a noob here then you may also want to point your browser toward our all time favorites page [3]. The holidays are nigh and tis the season to debug your brain and start the new year fresh.

However book knowledge is one thing – seeing things play out in reality is quite another. Let me [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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