If I would have to name one single quality in this game that separates the few winners from all the losers I’d point at persistence as what counts the most. There’s not one day that goes by when I don’t work my butt off to keep myself on the winning side of the tape. You’ve seen me post quite a bit of educational content as of late and it seems to have been well received as we got several likes by stocktwits and some renowned players. But at the end of the day knowledge and even skill means absolutely zilch if you don’t show up for work every single day and press that button when it’s time to take action.
We are seeing quite a bit of activity this morning with Draghi attempting to jawbone the EUR lower albeit with limited success as the EUR/USD seems to be ready to deploy its second stage rocket boosters. If nothing else he’s giving Yellen a brilliant run for her money when it comes to insinuating more dovish monetary policies despite having run out of ammunition and now attempting to face forex vigilantes armed with a BB gun. There will be blood, mark my words.
Today I will introduce an aspect of volatility that you most likely have not seen being addressed anywhere else: realized volatility profiles. First up let’s make sure you all understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.
We’re seeing quite a bit of intra-day monkey business over the past week on the equities side. Specifically I’m referring to gapping action, wild swings during the RTH, all in the context of minimal momentum (at least judging by the hourly Zero signal). Someone mentioned this morning that he has been observing a significant drop in L2 activity (i.e. b/a sizes and durations) over the past year and that does not surprise me as many large funds have been exiting over the past year.