A few years back I wrote a post  in which I profiled one of the main deadly sins of retail trader ignominy – the ubiquitous and often almost fanatic anticipation of mean reversion. I am not going to regurgitate my point; if you are a culprit (and you know you are) then I strongly recommend you read my old post and perhaps also one of my more recent ones . If you’re a noob here then you may also want to point your browser toward our all time favorites page . The holidays are nigh and tis the season to debug your brain and start the new year fresh.
However book knowledge is one thing – seeing things play out in reality is quite another. Let me [...]
Equities are firing on all six cylinders and overnight we’ve held the line near the magic ES 2100 mark. Given the momentum over the past few days (consistent and small) this suggests that institutional traders are milking this short squeeze for all it’s worth.
This is the S&P cash has us only ~10 handles away from our all time highs at 2134.71. There is no telling whether or not we breach it this week, but if we do then I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for weakness starting the next.
On the volatility front we’re just about to head into more turbulent waters. As you can see we are now back in the lower range after a low [...]
We’ve come quite a long way since the grizzles were ordering party hats and truck loads of Cristal in celebration of the impending August doom & gloom slide into the abyss. Since those lows we have regained some 270 juicy S&P handles and it looks like we’re ready to transition into the annual X-Mas bear hunting season. However, it’s my duty as the crusty bubble bursting host of this digital domain of trading doom to once again caution you to curb your damn enthusiasm.
Why you ask? For if we complete this week in the plus once again then I count six consecutive higher highs. And that means that probabilities start to lean toward a much [...]
Every once in a while we snag that perfect entry and I would lie if claimed that it’s not hugely satisfying. Equities are now in full squeeze mode and after a continued push higher overnight it’s due time to convert a portion of my paper profits into cold hard cash. The remainder stays in the game in expectation of a much more pronounced bear spanking.
My trailing stop is near 2053, a respectable distance away permitting sufficient room for the obligatory late Friday monkey business. This has third wave written all over it – cough cough 😉
Bonds – stopped out at break/even overnight. Can’t win ’em [...]