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March 3, 2016

At The Gates Of Valhalla

Over the course of the past month the bulls not only managed to pull the proverbial cart out of the mud, but somehow also give it an oil change, flip the tires, replace the spark plugs, and change the air filters. The reversal that is unfolding here is nothing short of being miraculous. Which of course is exactly why I remain highly suspicious of the entire affair. Unlike a much younger inexperienced Mole however, this old retail rodent knows his place in the market and would not dare arguing with the ultimate arbiter of truth – price.

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March 2, 2016

Bear Traps Galore

As I pointed out just yesterday: Nobody has a crystal ball in this game, and a ‘good call’ usually is the product of ample preparation combined with a generous helping of luck (that or a source on the inside). That said – we really avoided one big nasty bear trap there yesterday.

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February 29, 2016


Happy Leap Day everyone! Friday’s quick stab to the upside not surprisingly resulted in immediate rejection as the range between ES 1960 and roughly 1990 represents the bull’s Rubicon on the way to a new period of glory and fortune. I expect the bears to heavily defend this range plus we’re in side a low volume zone, so expect whipsaw on the way up.

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February 25, 2016

Say When!

Quite a violent reversal there late in the session yesterday which confirmed my suspicions regarding the possibilities of a bear trap. Clearly a u-turn bounce like that would usually shift the odds toward continuation higher, however I can’t help but remain vigilant. This tape seems to have shifted into full scale Lucy Van Pelt Fake Out mode – unless you know who the sucker at the table is, odds have it’s you, my friend.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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