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August 17, 2016

Resist The Dark Force

I am now forced to read my twitter stream with specially designed glasses in order to avoid accidental absorption of perma-bear bias via mental osmosis. Apparently as we are mere handles away from all time highs in equities popular wisdom ensures that we are are heading into unprecedented crash territory. You know just like the last time a few months ago, and then there was the other time earlier this year, and then last year around the same time, oh right and before that when rates were lifted by a few basis points. And who would be able to forget the big crash of 2014, which was almost as bad as the one in 2012. Of course nothing compares with the misery we all had to live through [...]

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May 3, 2016

A Cunning Plan

Equities are not looking so hot right now. Especially the hourly panel looks like a veritable war zones, with spikes, trenches, and traps resembling the Western front during WW1. So even thinking about a long position here most likely sounds just as appealing as any of Baldrick’s ‘cunning plans’ featured in the series Black Adder. As a personal side note – if you have been tragically born without a sense of humor then there may be hope for you. Just treat yourself to a season or two of Black Adder and I promise you’ll be the life of the party next time around. Either that or they’ll have you committed.

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April 7, 2016

Realized Volatility Profiles: Futures

Today I will introduce an aspect of volatility that you most likely have not seen being addressed anywhere else: realized volatility profiles. First up let’s make sure you all understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.

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March 21, 2016

Return Of The Market Mole

That’s right – the Mole is back! But this time it’s without any vengeance as I feel zen to the max after nearly two weeks of soul soothing silence on the beautiful island of Tenerife. Fortunately the journey back to Valencia was mostly uneventful; the exception being a plane full of Spaniards prepared to riot when they were told that they needed to remain in their seats until our plane had actually stopped at the gate. I humbly suggest that any airline operating within the Spanish peninsula equip their flight attendants with whips and cattle prods. Apparently verbal instructions issued by the pilot or flight crew are considered to be mere suggestions. May I add that [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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