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December 22, 2015

Let’s Try This Again

Alright, picture this scenario. It’s two days before Christmas and participation is drying up. Equities continue to run in churn mode near a medium term support zone. Patience is running thin and retail is shifting its attention from watching charts to wrapping Christmas presents and preparing for a seasonal culinary onslaught.

Sounds exactly like the type of tape that would tempt me to go hunting for entries. I didn’t grab a long position yesterday as I was bogged down with site development and dealing with lazy customer alienating Spanish shipping companies. On the upside my Spanish curse word vocabulary is growing steadily. Anyway, this is my next best [...]

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November 20, 2015

Soylent Green And Orange

As I happily continue to trail this advance I cannot help but remind myself that it is a bit early in the season for a continued push higher. Far be it from me to second guess however and I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth.

I would like however plant the seeds of objectivity early as to prepare you for the possibility of a second shake out that we may be heading into. In my experience in order for significant advances to occur we need to look out for attempts to frustrate and mislead the enemy. As we are currently in earshot of the old highs I propose two main scenarios in the coming week:

Soylent Green: We screw around a little more today but then [...]
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November 18, 2015

Misses Mean Reversion 2015 Runner Ups

A few years back I wrote a post [1] in which I profiled one of the main deadly sins of retail trader ignominy – the ubiquitous and often almost fanatic anticipation of mean reversion. I am not going to regurgitate my point; if you are a culprit (and you know you are) then I strongly recommend you read my old post and perhaps also one of my more recent ones [2]. If you’re a noob here then you may also want to point your browser toward our all time favorites page [3]. The holidays are nigh and tis the season to debug your brain and start the new year fresh.

However book knowledge is one thing – seeing things play out in reality is quite another. Let me [...]

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August 31, 2015

Time To Pay Attention (Again)

Most market participants suffer from chronic recency bias in that they weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience. In particular retail traders more often than not expect more of the same, which actually is correct most of the time. Except for when it matters the most. Come again?

If you have come here for a while then you have seen me use the word ‘inflection point’ on various occasions. I use that term rather deliberately as it succinctly expresses a moment in time in which an equilibrium between potential outcomes can be shifted rapidly by comparatively small movements in price. Say again?

Back in my wave wanking days [...]

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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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