Happy Monday everyone. I’ve got my eyes on gold this morning which touched hourly support on Friday and has been pushing sideways since the Sunday open. The daily panel is looking extremely tantalizing as gold futures have been painting a sideways pennant with a diagonal support line which is currently backed up by a stack of daily Net-Line Buy Levels.
We are seeing quite a bit of activity this morning with Draghi attempting to jawbone the EUR lower albeit with limited success as the EUR/USD seems to be ready to deploy its second stage rocket boosters. If nothing else he’s giving Yellen a brilliant run for her money when it comes to insinuating more dovish monetary policies despite having run out of ammunition and now attempting to face forex vigilantes armed with a BB gun. There will be blood, mark my words.
You may have noticed the lack of setups in the past week or so and I can assure you that it’s not for a lack of trying. However at the current time good directional entries seem to be few and far between. Fortunately we are in the mid of earning season and that may open up some opportunities for some nifty neutral volatility plays. If I take any I’ll be sure to share them here of course. In the interim I prefer to bide my time and wait for better odds to present themselves.
Today I will introduce an aspect of volatility that you most likely have not seen being addressed anywhere else: realized volatility profiles. First up let’s make sure you all understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.