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December 13, 2017

Sitting On My Hands

It’s FOMC day and I’m pretty much going to sit on my hands until all the dust settles. Speaking of which, my real life hands happen to be in bad shape these days. It turns out that punching walls and occasionally people as well as several hundred fist push ups per week combined with constant keyboard usage actually takes a toll on your mitten fillers given enough time. Suffice to say my traumatologist isn’t happy as he had to give me my second course of cortisone for this year after my left middle finger ended up being stuck retracted in the morning.

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December 7, 2017

The Big Roll Over

Equities futures are rolling into their March contracts today which is in part why we saw a distinct increase in realized volatility over the past week or two. Not being a huge fan of rainy winters in the Mediterranean I for one can’t wait for expiration day which also happens to be my spring vacation season. Then again I shouldn’t complain about the weather judging by what some of my trading buddies in Chicago are going through right now. Scraping ice from your windshield is one thing, scraping it off your contact lenses is another.

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November 14, 2017

Interesting Times

‘May you live in interesting times’ is an apocryphal expression often incorrectly attributed to being an ancient Chinese curse. Whoever actually coined it we will probably never know, but it’s clear to me that he or she was probably of advanced age and, having experienced a crisis or two, understood quite well the potential disruptive effects of large scale events.

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November 13, 2017

Running In Circles

The relentless advance in equities over the past few weeks/months may have distracted us from the fact that several key markets have continued to run in circles. Attempting to take break-out entries in highly volatile sideways conditions can quickly turn into a sequence of losses. Of course the realization of this is usually only clear in hindsight as regime change is difficult to anticipate.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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