Equities futures are rolling into their March contracts today which is in part why we saw a distinct increase in realized volatility over the past week or two. Not being a huge fan of rainy winters in the Mediterranean I for one can’t wait for expiration day which also happens to be my spring vacation season. Then again I shouldn’t complain about the weather judging by what some of my trading buddies in Chicago are going through right now. Scraping ice from your windshield is one thing, scraping it off your contact lenses is another.
‘May you live in interesting times’ is an apocryphal expression often incorrectly attributed to being an ancient Chinese curse. Whoever actually coined it we will probably never know, but it’s clear to me that he or she was probably of advanced age and, having experienced a crisis or two, understood quite well the potential disruptive effects of large scale events.
The relentless advance in equities over the past few weeks/months may have distracted us from the fact that several key markets have continued to run in circles. Attempting to take break-out entries in highly volatile sideways conditions can quickly turn into a sequence of losses. Of course the realization of this is usually only clear in hindsight as regime change is difficult to anticipate.
I just love statistics, which I in part attribute to my anal retentive Teutonic background. I’m not even that good in math but show me any graph and it’s like intellectual p0rn to me – I can’t resist. After building our most handy Evil Speculator statistics monger I spent hours looking through literally hundreds of charts. The most salient of course being the Spiders (SPY) as it gives us a pretty good historical perspective on seasonal trends on equities as a whole. So let’s see where we heading, at least statistically speaking: