Rejoice ladies and leeches – it’s that time of the month – FOMC Wednesday is upon us again. Which is our collective cue to hunker down and wait for the obligatory wave of volatility to wash over us. I swear, every time I see that one on tomorrow’s event roster my eyes glaze over.
So let’s cut through the crap, shall we? I’ll be happy to tell you in advance what’s going to happen. Yellen is going to deliver her usual litany of reasons for not raising interest rates (namely a shitty economy based on cooked books, fudged numbers, and of course low employment participation) whilst continuing to dangle the magic hike carrot in the [...]
It’s OPEX week and clearly that is not helping what is already a sideways low participation high volatility summer tape from hell. So let’s treat carefully and pick our victims extra carefully.
That’s right, there is no butter in hell. So don’t try to be smart and play the swings here – you will be stomped on.
Case in point: You may recall the NLBL on the daily E-Mini chart I posted yesterday. After breaching the diagonal this is where the boys were to be separated from the men. A breach higher would have put us on the path to taking another whack at the 2120 mark. But as many times over the past few weeks participation died [...]
And the fuckery continues. My apologies in advance for my crude language; but I think it does reflect the general sentiment among market participants these days. It hadn’t exactly been a fun year thus far to begin with – we have seen massive distribution across the front. Just when we thought that equities may pick a direction again we dropped into the summer tape, which has put us through a sideways ordeal of non-directional whipsaw. Even during the best of times it is tough to maintain a consistent edge as a trader – many have tried and very few manage to pull it off in the end. In market conditions like these however I guarantee you that even the pros are [...]
It’s going to be a busy morning as setups are crawling out of the woodworks and everything must go! On the equities side further weakness overnight has brought us to the first real hurdle:
That daily Net-Line Sell Level at 2102.75 is one of three that should start slowing momentum a bit. If we manage to push above 2106.75 then I’ll grab a few long positions with a stop below the recent spike low (wherever that’ll be).
Bonds – I got kicked out of ZB the other day by just a few ticks which was highly annoying but it happens in the best families. The hourly NLBL breach here on the 10-year contract was good enough reason for me to try [...]