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April 11, 2016

Stomp On Bucky Day

The Dollar is really taking it on the chin this morning and this may be just the beginning as I see a good number of crosses push into possible short term trending action (bearish on USD base crosses, e.g. EUR/USD, and bullish on USD counter crosses, e.g. GBP/USD). Clearly the Fed is going to fight this, as a weaker Dollar is beneficial to appreciating equities.

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April 7, 2016

Realized Volatility Profiles: Futures

Today I will introduce an aspect of volatility that you most likely have not seen being addressed anywhere else: realized volatility profiles. First up let’s make sure you all understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.

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April 6, 2016

Volatility Musings

Frankly I have very little worth sharing today, and it’s not for a lack of trying. Having scanned through my entire charting universe over the past two hours I found very little worth consideration. Clearly equities are stumbling as we’re running a bit out of participation, which by the way has been pretty thin for the past few weeks, only emerging in sudden surges when necessary.

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April 5, 2016

Back At Support

Last evening’s weakness in equities continued overnight and we are now finding ourselves back at the diagonal support line that has provided an entry base for the past month. Although well established it doesn’t mean that support is chiseled in stone here, which is why I am considering a binary setup. Here’s how we play it:

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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