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March 3, 2016

At The Gates Of Valhalla

Over the course of the past month the bulls not only managed to pull the proverbial cart out of the mud, but somehow also give it an oil change, flip the tires, replace the spark plugs, and change the air filters. The reversal that is unfolding here is nothing short of being miraculous. Which of course is exactly why I remain highly suspicious of the entire affair. Unlike a much younger inexperienced Mole however, this old retail rodent knows his place in the market and would not dare arguing with the ultimate arbiter of truth – price.

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February 5, 2016

Hanging By A Thread

We are literally hanging by a thread here as the bulls have been able to defend the last hurdle separating the winter of tears from the spring the bears. The 1900 mark may look innocuous enough but if we close below it today then the odds of more downside momentum next increase by a large margin.

I’m sensing quite a bit of exhaustion in the comment section and I can’t really blame you guys. Not only did we have to suffer through almost an entire year of sideways churn, but now that things are more directional we still have to put up with an increasing amount of intra-day volatility. Well, better get used to it, because conditions like these is going to be [...]

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September 16, 2015

The Quiet Before The Storm

Don’t expect much excitement on the equities front today. The Fed meeting starts today and until we get the final verdict on rising interest rates tomorrow things are going to circle in a holding pattern.

The long positions I placed on Monday are looking pretty good now and thus I am afforded sufficient buffer space to weather out a few obligatory volatility swings during the announcement tomorrow. I’m actually moving my stop to ES 1960 now – a few handles above b/e – just in case things get ugly tomorrow (and they may!).

Futures are pretty much dead right now – I only see Forex plays and even here the pickings are slim [...]

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September 15, 2015

Coiled Up To The Max

As you are probably already aware – the Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday and will deliberate the first interest rate increase in nearly a decade. Analysts seem to be split over the outcome however I would be rather surprised if the Fed decides to hike. Yes, there has been a lot of pertinent jaw boning since late last year. But behind all the spouted rhetoric hides very tangible fear about the shock waves a hike may cause. For one the Dollar would most likely punch massively higher – affording the mighty Mole an even more lavish and immoral lifestyle over here in poverty stricken Spain. Expect me to buy up massive amounts of property and [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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Option Basics – Debit Spreads
Option Basics – The Greeks