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February 2, 2016

Too Many Damn Setups

I’m having way too much fun this morning, which accounts for my somewhat belated post. There literally seem to be juicy setups crawling out of the woodwork and I just kept adding new ones while reducing exposure on others in order to reduce correlation risk. So without further ado let’s jump right in:

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December 17, 2015

Santa’s In The House!

Santa apparently came early this year and he’s ready to play! I hope you haven’t been naughty and stuck with our script or he may be paying you a special reeducation visit. Alright we’ve got setups setups setups! Equities seem to have held up well overnight and we seem to be on course for a continued squeeze higher.

The only fly in my ointment was the rather marginal Zero signal post FOMC announcement. Clearly very few players were participating ahead of time but I would have expected a bit more juice there an hour or so after the verdict. But let’s not jump to conclusions just yet – we’ll be monitoring the situation today and [...]

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September 25, 2015

Let’s Call It A Week

I just parsed through my universe of charts and what hasn’t blasted off already is running in circles. Not the type of tape I would want to touch with a ten foot pole. On the equities side there is really nothing to add that hasn’t been said already. My small short was taken out at break/even and I’m staying out of this turd of a tape until we see some real context. Remember my Epiphany post – that general assessment stands now more than ever.

Two GBP setups before I call it a week. GBP/CHF seems like a good long here but I’m only playing 1/4R with a stop half a mile away. On the daily we have been testing the 100-day SMA and thus far [...]

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August 17, 2015

Simple Trend Trades

I’m going to keep it super simple today. Over the past few months we have observed increasing evidence of two medium trend shifts – a swing down on the equities and a push up on the bond side. My simple modus operandi going forward is to wait for short term trend trading opportunities in order to be positioned if/once we finally see acceleration. Yeah, I know – hopefully sometime this year – it’s been painful.

Bonds have been on a strong trajectory higher but have pulled back a little over the past few sessions. From here we either revisit the 100-day SMA or we proceed higher in the near term future. I’m currently long the ZB but [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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