The Dollar is really taking it on the chin this morning and this may be just the beginning as I see a good number of crosses push into possible short term trending action (bearish on USD base crosses, e.g. EUR/USD, and bullish on USD counter crosses, e.g. GBP/USD). Clearly the Fed is going to fight this, as a weaker Dollar is beneficial to appreciating equities.
Apologies for the sporadic posts recently but I have been bogged down with various technical and administrative issues in recent days which command way too much of my attention. Suffice to say I’m running low on patience, anti-depressants, and duct tape.
However the tape waits for no man (or woman) and it’s time for us to pay attention again. If you are still long then I suggest you do nothing and put your stop below 1966.25, which in my mind is our bullish/bearish inflection point. If we drop below that then we most likely do a retest of the 100-hour SMA which has ascended to ES 1930. Whether or not we’d be long there depends on the velocity of the [...]
Rejoice ladies and leeches – it’s that time of the month – FOMC Wednesday is upon us again. Which is our collective cue to hunker down and wait for the obligatory wave of volatility to wash over us. I swear, every time I see that one on tomorrow’s event roster my eyes glaze over.
So let’s cut through the crap, shall we? I’ll be happy to tell you in advance what’s going to happen. Yellen is going to deliver her usual litany of reasons for not raising interest rates (namely a shitty economy based on cooked books, fudged numbers, and of course low employment participation) whilst continuing to dangle the magic hike carrot in the [...]
I’m not really hot on any new positions this morning but I did close out a few of yesterday’s short term campaigns. Although I was able to snag two good ones there’s one that played me for a sucker:
GBP/NZD – I dug deep and grabbed a few longs after seeing selling exhausting. It was the right move but the bastard wound stopping me out by a mere two pips before it took of like gangbusters. Just to show you that this happens to everyone – nobody gets a free pass from Ms. Market.
Fortunately I had the foresight to also grab a few longs on the AUD/NZD. Sweet move here as well and I just took profits.
My EUR/USD [...]