Running Like A Hare

The tape across the board has been running like a hare and today’s session again did not offer us any reprieve from the relentless battering we’ve been through over the past few weeks. Up and down she goes although on the equities side it’s been more down than up and the fat lady hasn’t sung just yet.

2015-04-30_spoos_update

Clearly I’m going to be limping behind here as things are unfolding quite rapidly. When I took that snapshot it was looking like equities may have found some ground but I simply didn’t trust it and posted in the comment section that it’s probably best to let things play out. That seems to have been good advice as the spoos are heading even lower as I’m typing this. To your collective benefit Mole’s instincts have been honed by decades of hairy tape ;-)

2015-04-30_zero

The Zero is still showing us very little participation, once again indicative of a stop run by institutional traders. A lot of greedy retail rats are being burned here folks – consider yourself lucky you’re not one of them (I hope!).

2015-04-30_NQ_update

The NQ printing lower highs and lower lows – this is not looking good. The 25-day SMA only offering soft support and this thing could easily resolve toward the 100-day SMA near 4317 before it’s all over.

2015-04-30_VIX-VXO

On days like these it always pays to check breadth and momo charts. The VIX:VXO is showing me no divergence which is concerning.

2015-04-30_VXV-VIX

More long term the VXV:VIX is also pointing down. That’s bad medicine…

Alright, updated across the board in no particular order:

2015-04-30_EURUSD_update

The EUR/USD is now in earshot of my target and I’m taking everything but 25% of my position off the table. This campaign has done a great job of softening the impact of the shitty exchange rate I’ll probably be facing in the months ahead. Notice the weekly NLBL that has been sliced today.

2015-04-30_EURJPY_update

EUR/JPY – same idea here – I’m taking almost everything off the table, only keeping 25% of my original position. Again my target is near the 100-day SMA where I would normally expect some obligatory resistance. But given the velocity of this short squeeze things could easily overshoot.

2015-04-30_crude_update

Crude – I’m quite stunned by how well this one has kept up given all the drama in the remaining futures pits. As you may remember I snagged a rather early seat near the 50 mark and remain determined to ride this puppy higher. Over the past week or so there was a lot of talk about crude having hit a high and I’m glad I didn’t listen – as always! ;-)

2015-04-30_ZF_update

ZF is not a setup yet but I like the daily and weekly panels here. As soon as it gives me an excuse to be long I’ll let you know.

2015-04-30_ZN_update

Ditto on the 10-year futures but it’s a bit early to snag a position just yet. Let’s see how things play out Sunday night or on Monday.

Alright before I grab dinner a few juicy setups for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Bounce It

The magic pendulum swung back the other way and Friday’s decision to take partial profits (according to system rules) managed to lock in at least 50% of the profits accumulated on the way down. Of course the question rattling around in your retail rodent brain right now is whether or not this is just a temporary bounce to shake out a few weak hands (i.e. you) or if this thing manages to squeeze higher.

If you want my advice – just bounce it all. You should always always know what your campaign will do at each step of the way – ahead of taking entries. Remember that the game always has and always will revolve around pressing your emotional buttons - and there’s a wide range of keys available – take a look:

2015-03-16_brain

You think of yourself as a rational person? Well, think again – 90% of what we do is steered by habits and emotions. Just look at how much of your brain is actually devoted to emotional interpretations and responses in comparison with rational analysis and the exercise of judgment. So if you are still exposed to the downside all these sections of your brain are most likely feeding you a party mix comprised of disappointment, fear of losing more of your prior paper profits, temptation to double down and sell the rip, doubts about your prior analysis, anger at not taking full profits last Friday, etc.

Mind you this is NOT the time to second guess your system (if you have one) or to react as opposed to simply act. I think this is an essential maxim every trader should be print, frame, and hang on the wall facing you during your trading activities:

ACT – NEVER REACT.

2015-03-16_ES_update

The hourly and daily price panels are looking pretty bullish at this point. However we are at a short term threshold which will determine if this leads higher. Notice how the BBs and SMAs on the hourly are starting to slightly swing higher – if this continues into the close then the bulls take this one home and probably squeeze things higher. So watch the next two hours – the bears need to act now in order to prevent a massive squeeze to the upside. Accordingly I have put my final stop near the 25-day SMA which is probably more than generous.

2015-03-16_spoos_weekly

Weekly – the bulls definitely won the first important battle. That NLSL and the 25-week SMA held up like bosses and unless challenged early this week it will henceforth act as additional support.

2015-03-16_VIX_ratio

Let’s take a look at market internals – the SPX:VIX ratio is looking a bit suspicious as it’s trailing price. This may be nothing but I am sharing additional considerations below the fold.

2015-03-16_zero

The Zero super flat today – no participation. Which leads into two charts that grabbed my attention – please get your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

RainbowPamPortVila

UPDATE on Ivan Krastins – I am happy to report that I just received notice from someone in contact with Ivan. Apparently the old buzzard managed to survive a category 5 cyclone wearing his Chinese wok as a helmet and by chaining himself to a boat anchor. He has no electricity or internet and his computers have been damaged. But he does have phone access and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s calling in futures orders as we speak. Well done old chap – if you need anything please don’t hesitate to ask – we’re here for you. Unfortunately Scott is in Bali right now otherwise I’m sure he’d be on a boat by now. I have an old MBP I could ship him or perhaps someone closer to Ivan could help him out? Getting things over there will be difficult for the next few weeks and any Aussies or Kiwis please steps up – he needs our help.

PUBLIC COURTESY ANNOUNCEMENT: I am heading to San Diego for a day and am scheduled to return to Los Angeles tomorrow early afternoon. I won’t be bringing my lappy as I’ll be on my feet most of the time down there. This means that tomorrow’s post will most likely be after the market closes. Thank you for your understanding – I am doing my best to keep the blog flowing during my time on the beautiful West Coast. By the way the weather here has been fantastic – super sunny with dry heat – just like the Mole likes it :-)

Cheers,

Low Probability High Payoff Lottery Ticket

This is a quick update on our equities saga – finally the time has come to wield the iron as it’s hot. You recall that I suggested a bull/bear inflection point at the ES 2055 NLBL. We’re there now which bestows upon us the opportunity to grab what I call a low probability high payoff lottery ticket (LPHPLT – I loves me those acronyms):

2015-02-05_spoos_setup

The time is now – so go grab a handful but be advised that the odds of success are probably around 15% – 20% – if that. However if it for some reason drops from here then the payoff may be significant. Most likely however this thing is going to push higher over the coming days – the bulls seem to be running this tape.

Trigger and stop on the chart, so have at it but only play 1/2R or less – again, this is a bearish Hail Mary and most likely it’s going to fail. It’s literally a place and forget type of setup.With the VIX back at 17 a long put play may an option as well – but I would grab OTM strikes in this particular case but that’s me.

A little more context below for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Bottom Line: We’re grabbing lottery tickets here but it seems like the bears have had it and the bulls are running the show now. If stopped out I’m planning to be long with a stop a respectable distance below 2055. I may get whipsawed yet again but that’s the price of admission to be trading here.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • How many discretionary trades to you place per month?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. NinjaTrader
    Kinetick

    search warrant



  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Happy Independence Day
    2. The Quiet Before The Storm
    3. Timing is everything – Black Gold
    4. Short Term Updates
    5. The Game In A Nutshell
    6. Filling The Gaps
    7. Greece Saga Precautions
    8. Furious And Furious Friday
    9. Dangerous Turf
    10. Forex Update