Riding This Beast Into The Sunset

Forget about equities – everyone and their mother is trying to sort out this gyrating stop sweeping mess. And yes, they are about to get interesting (see below), but I expect our chart of the month to be gold and not the spoos or the NQ.

2015-01-20_gold_update

Fortunately some of us rats managed to secure a seat on the bus just before it took off. I have to run the numbers as I scaled into a bit over an R between 2012 and 2018. Which gets me to roughly 10R at this point and I’m just getting warmed up. The weekly shows us approaching the 100-week SMA – our first major hurdle. However I’m going to keep my stop below 1272 for now in expectation of an obligatory shake out attempt.

riding_into_the_sunset

The long term implications of this campaign are very promising and with a bit of finesse it’s possible that we’ll ride this sucker into the sunset. Which means somewhere around 1500 – you heard it here first.

2015-01-20_spoos_update

Okay on to equities – which as I said are about to get extremely interesting. We currently are what I believe are the late stages of a limbo period (see my 2012 excerpt on market weather). However we are most likely facing long term implications here – this is not just another leg lower or higher. I repeatedly have pointed out the increase in intra-day volatility expressed here by long wicks and overlapping candles. Very very tough tape to get a read and even tougher to get a good entry. Which is exactly why most traders miss the early stages of a downside correction.

2015-01-20_spoos_GBPJPY

But let’s not count our chicken before they are hatched. Most likely it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The GBP/JPY correlation is pointing upward right now and I think short term it’s quite possible we’re going to stop out the current NQ short campaign (courtesy of Thor).

2015-01-20_UVOL_DVOL

However there is conflicting evidence and in order to interpret the big picture we need to put it all into context. Now our UVOL/DVOL ratio today remains pretty negative despite the current push higher – could be indicative of slow accumulation especially as the Zero is donning a very flat signal (meaning little participation and quite a lot of monkey business).

A LOT more below the fold – not a post to miss – please meet me in the lair:


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Bonus chart:

2015-01-20_CrazyIvan

CrazyIvan now at 77R – new all time highs since 1/1/2014. Who would have thunk? And it started to really get cracking when volatility was on the increase starting November/December. Seems like CrazyIvan is loving the IV and I hope to see more of this. Message to everyone who left during the summer: Watch the Nick Rage video again. This is a long term game, folks and instead of going with the program I watch you picking up pennies in front of bulldozers. Enough said.

Cheers,

Pick Your Poison

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-01-06_USDMXN_briefing

Pretty quiet out there – crude, cable, and Euro even lower (didn’t I tell you to wait?) but no big moves overnight. The Mexican peso may be a ST setup as it’s back at the 25-hour SMA plus there’s a NLSL at 14.935.  If you want to be long try to grab an entry near that with a stop below 14.92. Time for the SMA to offer support and carry it higher.

2015-01-06_NQ_briefing

Equities – the one setup I see this morning would be on the NQ as it’s offering us a correlated NLSL and 25-hour SMA. Be long above 4170 and short below 4165 – plus/minus. I actually like this one, the only fly in my ointment is this:

2015-01-06_events

Quite a lot of event risk, especially tomorrow, and that’s been the game we’ve had to endure almost every month now. Price gets pushed toward a technical inflection point right before the FOMC meeting and then takes off like gang busters, not without shaking out a bunch of stops in either direction. Very tricky to get a seat on the bus.

So this is what I’m proposing:

  1. Don’t force it and make sure you get the entry you want.
  2. Get positioned today. Forget about grabbing an entry on EUR or USD pairs tomorrow – same goes for equities. Today’s the day to pick your poison.
  3. The trading range in equities is probably going to be pretty contained today (no promises but these are the odds). Place your stop a reasonable distance away but you can be a bit tighter today. NOT tomorrow.

The idea here is to get in early – which has low odds of happening but is your best play in tape expecting sudden volatility jumps. Watch the Zero today for early signs of accumulation – divergences and rate of participation is what you should look out for.

Now there are two charts which you MUST watch like a hawk – and they’re already offering a hint of what market makers may be up to right now. Please meet me in the lair…


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Everyone’s Getting Some

The gloves are off and everyone’s getting some today – a royal kick in the nuts that is! Gold, crude, and a few other futures contracts dropped to new lows this morning, just to turn on a dime and then massively retrace higher. Nasty trippy tape all across and I’m glad my exposure was limited courtesy of the holidays. I only got stopped out in my ST crude entry this morning, fortunately EUR/SEK more than made up for it.

2014-12-01_spoos_forex

So let’s talk equities – I already know the question rattling around in your dizzy rodent brains right now:

Have we painted a low or are we going to drop even lower?

First up the damage is pretty contained and my trailing stop hasn’t even been touched yet. Second I’m looking at some of the carry trade pairs and there’s no confirmation – so call me a bit skeptical on this one.

2014-12-01_SPX_hourly

Third the hourly SPX touched the 100-hour and so far it’s been holding. HOWEVER, should we close the session below it then odds support a drop into SPX 2020ish.

2014-12-01_VIX_VXO

Fourth – you may recall that the VIX:VXO was dropping early last week, so the current correction isn’t exactly a shocker IYKWIM. Plus almost every year we see a drop lower right after Black Friday before they turn on the rocket boosters in the final weeks. No guarantees ever that history will repeat but what gets me is that everyone acts so surprised, but perhaps that’s part of the entertainment.

2014-12-01_spoos_update

But let’s not jump to any conclusions – I stick with my 2050 line in the sand. After that we’re probably starting to run a few stops and it’ll lead us lower into ES 2025 and then 2020. The latter correlates nicely with a NLSL on the weekly. Which is where I would look for re-entry opportunities after having been stopped out below 2035.25. Well, that’s my nefarious plan and I’m sticking with it.

Setups:

2014-12-01_GBPJPY_setup

Juicy looking hammer on the GBP/JPY and I’m willing to take it both ways – triggers on the chart.

More setups below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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